WestMichigan

4 hours ago, dta1984 said:

I am!  Hopeful that the weather works out, but we have a backup plan just in case.  

Congratulations!

47 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Agreed, let's close out winter.  49.5" is my total, and low since I've been keeping track.  

What's your take on the long range?  Are we close to getting back to some spring temps?  I've got an outdoor wedding end of next month.... 

Are you getting married or just attending?

The cold tonight could kill off a lot of early blooming fruit trees in this part of MI.  The cherry orchard near me is blooming and I am sure the peach orchards are in a similar situation.

Big fat cotton balls falling this morning.  The grass had a decidedly white tint to it when I left for work this morning.

58 minutes ago, Harry said:

Same here but 12-13 kinda sucked too considering that stretch we were in. 

But 2013-14 made up for that.

The + departures will still be there, but the yesterday and today will change the shades of that map a little bit.

31 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

It is the NAM so take it with a grain of salt….but 4-6” of snow after multiple 80 degree days would be something. It’s definitely going to snow Sunday, the question is how much. 

How much more do you need for the seasonal record? I know you have said, but I forget.  Duluth area was in the running for a seasonal record also.

That was pretty cool, thanks for the info on the great lakes tsunami

19 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

71 with 2 feet of snow otg.

Sound of birds, flowing water, and of course the black flies showed up as soon as possible.

 

That sounds awful.  No break from winter to black fly season.  My wife got bit on the eyelid a few years ago and her whole eye swelled shut the following day for about 8-12 hours.

45 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

We have no foliage for evapotranspiration. 

Except for your palms.

So much for the drought conditions of last year.  Looks like most of the country with the exception of maybe the SE has improved since this time last year.

Not sure how to rate this winter.  I am thinking B-/C+.  GRR had the 3rd snowiest winter ever, but snow cover was pathetic.  There were 54 days with 1" or more on the ground.  A normal year over the POR comes out around 67 days with 1" on the ground.  The closest years to this year snowfall wise had 92 and 109 days so even though we were significantly above normal for snowfall the number of days with 1" of snow on the ground was significantly below normal.  The Christmas storm was amazing and the lake effect was the best in my 13 years here but the lack of retention really dings my grade.  A little better snow retention and this would have easily been an A.

10 hours ago, frostfern said:

I chased that elevated supercell about 30 minutes south of my house and barely reached shelter before hail up to golf ball size hit.  Nothing like sitting in the driving range!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjzXVitHSk8

Where were you in this area?

1 hour ago, frostfern said:

Strong flow at 925 can mitigate negative effects over the lake.  If there's enough surface backing there can be some enhancement.  The southeastern side looks most favorable though.  I get the feeling there will be broken initiation along the lake breeze, like right along 131, that then fills in and grows as it moves east.

That would be the result 90+% of the time.  If we are talking baseball sized hail like what is happening right now to the west of us then I am all for lake suppression.

1 hour ago, Lightning said:

 

 

Really makes sense.  Day 2 events are so dependent around here on what happens during Day 1 to the west.   Seen way to many Day 2 events be nothing more a windy rain shower without even thunder.   Even the SPC noted the Great Lakes could impact it:

It remains unclear what effect the cooler marine layer from Lake
   Michigan has on adjacent coastal areas, particularly into portions
   of western Michigan. 

 

GRR talked about that in the overnight AFD also.  It will be interesting to see what if anything can develop near Lake Michigan.

At 1155 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Brunswick, or 9 miles north of Slater, moving northeast at 70 mph.

These storms are moving fast.  Going to make chasing rather challenging for those who go out.

16 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Little bit of winter still to go up here in the northern sub.  Ice, rain, and snow all in the cards.  Between the two rounds, if the forecast holds, could see upwards of 20 inches in parts of the UP.

What is your current total so far this winter?

32 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:

My point and click says 4-8” Friday night. This is getting a bit ridiculous.


.

Enjoy the amazing winter you have had/continue to have.

12 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

We had sun and 40s all day yesterday, plus some sun and warmth in the afternoon after the storm ended at Madison. Madison reached 44 after the clouds moved off. This stuff started to melt/evaporate basically as soon as the storm was over.

We had that recently with approximately 12" of snow that completely melted off the driveway by evening.  Warm ground and the right daytime conditions can make an amazing amount of snow disappear in a day.

This was an odd way of looking at this year's snowfall put out by a local TV station.  Interesting how much the weekends were favored.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/seasonal-snowfall-2023/vi-AA195Iqx?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=1eb9ec360a6143a9a0b7b4660fcd0ccc&ei=14

Please make the freezing rain go away. Glad someone is getting snow but the freezing rain needs to end. 

2 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Climo says don't get your hopes up for clear skies with the 2024 Solar Eclipse, at least up here.

2017 was really the best-case scenario possible.

Are you back in Michigan?

On a different note, this is looking better that it has in a very long time.  Maybe we can reduce the possibility of torching this summer if this keeps up.

6Z GFS is saying the SE trend is alive and well.  The 6Z NAM has a different approach and the snow band goes more NE whereas the GFS doesn't cut as hard to the NW.  The NAM 3kM is closer to the GFS solution.  THE RAP AND HRRR are somewhere in between the two models.  You would think being about 24 hours out there would be better consensus at this point....

9 hours ago, luckyweather said:

not in the sub but Alta in Utah just cracked 700” on the season and Mammoth (CA) is now over 800”. Absolutely incredible winter in the Wasatch and Sierras and it’s still got some wind left in it.

Those are some huge number but still a long way to go to catch Mt Baker's record in 1998-1999 with 1140" of snow.