WestMichigan

5 hours ago, Ji said:

Your cooked and I'm here for all of it

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

I remember my days in Central Ohio and whenever Ji entered the thread it was either something major about to happen or the WTOD was heading for Columbus.  Glad to see you still lurk here.

GRR reported 4.1" of snow with 0.94" of precipitation.  Talk about some heart attack shoveling.

28.92 and still dropping here.  Very consistent with those in Indiana and NW Ohio

9 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

What are the totals from that. NE IL and MI looks to really cash in with that look

Wish I had one of those for my tractor.  They are soooo expensive.

GRR finally filled in the gap with a Winter Weather Advisory.

12z NAM says my area stays all snow.  Not sure what to think about the slight south shift on the last 2 runs.  Is it real or is it the NAM doing its usual shenanigans?

The Euro and GFS ensemble pressure mean has been fairly consistent
of late and suggests that the low will track from near Chicago to
South Haven the northeast to near Saginaw. North of this track,
the precipitation will be mainly snow. South of the track we`ll
see a snow to rain transition. It`s entirely possible that we
could see several inches of snow accumulation difference between
southern Kent and northern Kent county.

looks like GRR is going to have some fun with this forecast. Someone is almost guaranteed to be mad at the weather guy tomorrow. 

Managed about 1.5” overnight. Nice to see snow again. 

GFS goes crazy with the light intensity long duration LES across the western parts of Michigan.  I'll take the under for sure on this run.

Wasn't sure if there was a NSFW tag needed on this one.

Wyoming and Montana would have beavis1729 approved temperatures.

18z GFS is about as good as it gets for the next 2 weeks for a good chunk of the subforum.  Pretty good spread the wealth with the exception of maybe the far northern parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

8 hours ago, Brian D said:

BTW, I'm assuming we no longer have a troll issue. That will be so nice.

I missed that.  Is he gone?

2 hours ago, Stebo said:

As for the rest here from the last few days, good stuff and you can already see some hints of the change in the longer range. I still worry about going warm and dry to cold and dry but beyond that it does look colder about a week out from now.

I'd rather take my chances in a cold and dry scenario.  Given the right setup maybe the lake can help produce some snow.

Merry Christmas everyone.

Whatever happened to beavis1729?  He is probably ready for his head to explode right now given the warmth.  I miss his rants in an odd sort of way.

2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Mini blast of winter was nice.  Snowed 5.5 inches here with the temp hovering around 22 all day.  Gusty winds certainly made it feel much colder especially considering the very mild start to winter.  10 or so miles west of here saw upwards of 7-8 inches and an area just se of Marquette received 6-7 inches.  The fresh snow made for a chilly morning.  Woke up at 5 am to 6 degrees and a cold house.  White Christmas still uncertain.

 

Big bust for the Northern Indiana WFO

Huge bust in Northern Indiana.  The highest I saw was around 2".  Just west of Kalamazoo they had about 7".  Not quite 2" at my place which was more than I expected.

8 hours ago, OHweather said:

I'm not a Lake Michigan lake effect expert...I'm legitimately curious to see if the band can become focused enough to produce 1"+ per hour rates for a length of time or if the stronger winds will lead to a more general spray of moderate snow. The instability and synoptic support are robust, so if a focused band can develop rates of 1-2" per hour would result and the warnings would work out. However, some models struggle to focus a band in the face of the 40 knot low-level flow. Somewhat "marginal" surface temperatures and daytime timing of the heaviest snow could limit accumulation efficiency if it's more of a general spray of snow, so while there'd be poor conditions and some travel impacts accumulations would struggle to verify a warning. It feels like nasty travel conditions are likely to carry well inland in squalls, so the expansion of the advisory seems like a good move...I just don't have a great feel on how widespread any 6"+ totals would be. 

I can't speak for the south end of Lake Michigan where they can get a pretty long fetch but in my area high winds like they are forecasting seem to never lead to decent snow amounts.  The bands either get pushed too far inland, they don't stay on one place, or the dendrites get broken up resulting in a very fine snow.  I guess we will see how this one works out for those in far SW Michigan and Northern Indiana.

2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Well looky there.

 

Areas closer to the lakeshore here are supposed to get 2-4”. Not enough westerly component to bring it my way. 

At least for some CAD might offer the chance of some lake effect.

3 hours ago, bowtie` said:

Finally , some good news. The sunsets are getting later now. Last night was at 5:19p.m.. Tonight it was  5;20p,.m.. We are on the long road back to sunlight now.

Daylight isn't getting longer yet, but sunsets are getting later.

9 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Now you’re bargaining and coping because you can’t handle the loss of an entire winter month year after year. Winters are warming and we are witnessing the shoulder months going first. We aren’t at the point yet where January and first half of February go but it will happen soon enough.

Take it to the Climate Change sub

54 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

january here we come, then just a couple months until spring

eps just brutal for snow lovers

If this keeps up the drought monitor will be the weekly topic every Thursday next spring.  It isn't just warm vs. cold.  There just isn't much in the way of precipitation shown region wide and what is show changes with every run of the model.

Not just the GFS, Euro did something similar.