WestMichigan

Not just the GFS, Euro did something similar.

Skipped accuweather completely. I started with wright-weather bulletin board then Eastern and Harry’s now defunct board and now this is pretty much all that there is. 

Nothing but rain here also.

I managed to pick up about 6.5" of snow between Sunday and Tuesday.  Pretty fluffy LES that settled down to about 2" by this morning.  Unlike Bo, mine won't stick around for the rest of the winter.

24 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

I see you started the weenie pile.

Jealous?

I think Wunderground might not be correct with this long range forecast.

On 11/18/2023 at 6:44 PM, michsnowfreak said:

That sounds like 2 weeks behind here. Is it common on the lakeshore? I'd guess the same is seen in terms of a delay in spring blooming?

We do tend to run a little behind. I would say this is a little late but not absurdly late. 

Apple trees still have green leaves in my backyard as well as the Bradford pears. Maples are brown but still hanging on o e tree. Oaks haven’t dropped yet either. 

Clippers are generally good given the right track.  We get some lake assist on the front end with the SW wind then LES on the back side.  Muskegon does better but they can be pretty good here.

15 hours ago, Chinook said:

Unusually snowy weather hammered Anchorage. A strong low pressure hit the area from the south last week, and more snowy weather occurred after that low. As it says in the article, Anchorage reported 2.5 ft of snow last week. The CoCoRAHS plot  says 41.1" in 8 days in SE Anchorage city.

 

I saw Thompson pass had 65" in 24 hours.

39 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Note that this was initialized on Nov 1. On that date it and the weeklies had (as per the top map) the EPS mean (thick blue line) first drop below climo (black line) ~Dec 2nd. Since then the EPS has kicked the can somewhat and the EPS mean in yesterday’s run doesn’t drop it below climo til Dec 12th with it stronger in early Dec. Hopefully it won’t keep delaying it.

Time to bust out the JB quote - "Delayed but not denied" 

We can always count on buckeye for a good meme or two throughout the year.  Here's hoping to a decent Central Ohio winter.

9 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

One thing to keep in mind with these seasonal forecasts. A lot can change in a month for sure.

Here's the October updates forecast for NOV:

 

Here's the NOV update for NOV:

 

Just a wee bit different.

October map was using 1981-2010 while the November map is using 1991-2020.  What would these look like if done using the same climatological norms?  There are definitely differences, I am not arguing that, but it would sure be nice to see them with the same reference point.

I heard reports of 9"+ from North Muskegon through Whitehall.  Grand Haven had 7"+ also.  I'd say 1.5" or maybe a little more at my house and I can finally say I have went below freezing for the first time this fall as of 8:55 this evening.  Just got it in before November.

47 minutes ago, Chinook said:

+SN with 1/8 mile measured visibility in western Michigan with this, perhaps, Manitoba Mauler (even though it's not really doing much in terms of winter storm development like the winter)

 

This is what it looks like in Zeeland right now

Edit:  It got significantly heavier right after posting this.

First accumulating snow of the year coming for my area.  North of Muskegon to Ludington/Manistee area they are thinking 3-6" with an inch or so locally.  Looks like a little SW wind enhancing the incoming system.

It has been a wet month here.  5.41" and still some very light rain out there tonight.  Like many, the drought of May/June is gone.  Like cyclone, lots of leaves down here with the combination of rain and a fair amount of wind today.

Only made it down to 37F (36.9) this morning.  Still waiting on my first frost.

That will help keep the lakes a little warmer so the first LES event or two of the season will have a little extra potential.

43 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Come on man. All signs are pointing to a warm winter.

Show you confidence in this, leave your palms out.

19 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

In a condo?  Which means shared warm walls.  Wow.  Bad building design then.  Still 71 in my house with zero heat running.

Not everyone has the money to put 4' of insulation on their attic.  We get it, you have an amazingly well insulated house.  Stop criticizing everyone else who can't do that or lives in an old house where the only option would be a complete demolition and rebuild to meet your standards.

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

Right now it's 70 in my house with the heat off.  Outside of cooking, running lights, electronics, etc, there's nothing else going on.  It was up to 74 yesterday afternoon inside as well when the sun was out.  So yeah, if your house is falling into the 50s this year already, there's an issue with your insulation.  I have 4 feet in my attic.

That sounds expensive.  What is the payback period on that?  Also do you have very many windows?  Glass is a poor insulator.

For entertainment only.  No way this is happening.  Looks like we might be in for a long winter of enduring the GFS teasing long range snowstorms.

My temp sensor runs a little high but I have recorded 10 days of 90 or higher this year.  Factoring in the offset I am probably closer to 6 or 7 days at or above 90.

17 hours ago, Lightning said:

Very slow at getting over here.  Not sure what we are going to get as it keep decreasing on radar as it gets over here.   That can change this evening so we'll see.

How did things pan out on the east side?  My final total from yesterday was 1.41".