WestMichigan

Sitting around 3” at this point. If we could keep this wind direction there would be some nice snow totals by morning. 

22 minutes ago, HighTechEE said:

 

240

Who do I have to pay to have the 0Z GFS come true?

1 hour ago, HighTechEE said:

I don't pay anything and it works fine for me?

Same here

What is the world is the GFS doing with the low pressure in the midwest around the 12th?  That is an odd looking evolution that I would bet doesn't occur.

GRR with one of the best descriptions I have seen in regards to why inland areas did better than the usual west of US-131 areas.

I can attest to the snow pellets.  We had a lot of that vs. the snow flakes seen farther inland.

Less than 1/2 mile visibility in snow with lots of blowing snow here. Radar definitely filling in. 

1 hour ago, Harry said:

 

Wasn't GHD 2 that winter? Ofcourse I don't recall what Grand Rapids got from that but was a solid 18 here. Why I place it above the more touted GHD 1 around here which dropped a foot here and those 18 amounts up towards Grand Rapids. 

Wasn't that 2011?

1 hour ago, frostfern said:

I remember December 2008 being extremely active around here.  The depth got up around 20" briefly before a rainer around Christmas destroyed it and caused a lot of roof leak issues..

November 2014 had 31” in GRR. The rest of the winter was a letdown after that with a little over 40” the rest of the way. 

4 minutes ago, Harry said:

Latest AFD from GRR suggests tomorrow afternoon/night may be more intense with a dominate i94 band setting up.. 2 feet perhaps when all is said and done here? Crazy if it materializes. 

City here just issued a snow emergency for Tomorrow into Sunday. Only other time had one of these was with GHD II. 

You beat me to it.  GRR definitely giving some emphasis on the I-94 band setting up.

15 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

Yep. That would do it. Crazy totals for around here anyways. Totals from 4 just south of town on up to near a foot in Pennfield/north side on back to Kalamazoo from what I am hearing via channel 3.. About 10 here by Emmett St and or a couple of blocks from Pennfield.. Work is about a little over two miles south so it will be interesting to see what a difference that makes. I'll be there in a hour.. 

Farther inland seems to be the winner with this one.  GRR did quite well while here in Zeeland at work there was maybe 2" this morning.  Don't know if the winds were too strong and blowing everything inland but I have seen some crazy totals for LES in places you wouldn't normally expect it.

1 hour ago, WestMichigan said:

My area did ok overnight. Picked up about 3-1/2” maybe 4”. Had about 2” yesterday so overall not too bad. Allegan county looks to have the most based on radar. Interesting to see what some of the totals are this morning. In the end the NWS will probably be correct for my area with their initial range, just not as impressive as you would think because of the long duration the event. Lots of time with little or.no snow in the air. 

Just saw 7.6 inches at midnight at GRR.  Seems like the winds were a little too strong today and pushed the snow more inland.  Someone is going to have some impressive totals in West Michigan out of this and that is small amounts compared to Northern Lower Michigan or Western New York.

My area did ok overnight. Picked up about 3-1/2” maybe 4”. Had about 2” yesterday so overall not too bad. Allegan county looks to have the most based on radar. Interesting to see what some of the totals are this morning. In the end the NWS will probably be correct for my area with their initial range, just not as impressive as you would think because of the long duration the event. Lots of time with little or.no snow in the air. 

3 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

Yeah if we can keep this going all night I think we could see warning criteria amounts almost to Jackson. Rare air for sure. See what happens once the flow settles into the wnw direction in a little bit. I think the cellular look to some of it could have to do with the low level flow wsw to sw while above it has become westerly. Plus the patches of drier air. a bit better moisture  should be heading over the lake shortly. So between all of that coming together in a little while it should fan out a bit more and intensify. We'll see anyways. 

Ofcourse later tomorrow/tomorrow night the flow should start backing again towards the wsw and even sw ahead of the next impulse on Saturday and then back to wnw/me later Saturday into Saturday night which should light it up again. 

We have had more graupel/pellets than actual flakes at times.  Still slowly adding up but certainly not a good way to run a winter storm warning level of snow.

4 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Absolutely ripping right now and its getting more steady as opposed to the on-off squalls earlier today.  I notice more accumulation on the roof of the car than on the ground.  If the ratio was classic LES this would be 4” per hour stuff.  Its just somewhat wet and the ground is a bit warm…. thus compacting a lot.

Not sure about my home, but not much here in Zeeland.

In the past that has been a bias with the Euro.  Has that been fixed or is this still a problem?

4 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

Wasn't really supposed to ramp up till later today and tonight. Radar trends looking better. Might be one of the best set ups we see. 

I know, just had many LES events underperform over the past several years.  This seems like one of these events where it is go big or go home.

Euro seems to be saying not so fast to the GFS.

NWS Point and click has me with 15" by Sunday.  Not liking how things are starting off today but maybe there will be some improvement later on.

Just curious, anyone have a "favorite" model when it comes to lake effect snow?

3 hours ago, Harry said:

 

Looking upstream etc I honestly think a foot+ is looking good for your backyard. 

Surprised there is no thread for this? 

I sure hope you are correct.  Looking at everything I am hopeful that we will be in the foot or more range.

48 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

You still in the Grand Rapids area? For these parts this is looking to be one of the most impressive les events I have seen. Rare day when GRR has warnings flying all the way to here and or including 3rd row of counties. Ofcourse some of the models have gone into the unknown with qpf amounts ( UK/Canadian inch + ) I have never seen this far inland that I can recall? Even the normal models showing between a half inch to over .75! You are in a solid spot if you are still by Grand Rapids? 

Yes, I am still Just north of the Ottawa/Allegan county line.  GRR is saying 8-12 which would be a rather impressive LES event for this part of the state for sure.  Hard to keep the winds blowing the right direction that long for us to see those totals.  Looking forward to seeing how this unfolds.

24 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Yea if Lake Michigan was only 200 miles wider  

Turn it sideways and we would be in business.

Around 3" around here.  Did fairly well with a persistent but light snow during the daylight hours.  Now on to Thursday - Friday.

I am a little surprised Buckeye hasn't chimed in with March 8, 2008.