WestMichigan

Only 16 more model runs until we see what really happens.

Take a break from this. You need it.

GRR is toying with me We are still expecting a system to affect the area in the Friday through Sunday time frame. There are multiple upper troughs and cut off lows that come together in some fashion to bring the low to the lakes this weekend. The first trough is currently in the middle of the Pacific with a cut off low dropping south near Southern California. The waves come together over the plains on Friday with a low moving through the Great Lakes in the Saturday time frame. At this point, looking at the operational models, the Canadian is furthest northwest moving a low through Wisconsin. The GFS is more of a middle of the road track, moving the low through the GRR forecast area. The ECMWF is further southeast, tracking the low through Southeast Lower Michigan. 12z European ensemble low locations Saturday evening are starting to zero in on the southern Great Lakes area for the track of the low, so leaning towards a GFS or ECMWF solution. What this means is we are looking at a potentially impactful system this weekend with a rain to snow type of scenario. Wind is also in play depending on the depth of the low. Way too early to nail down any details at this point with this system, but we are certainly watching it. It appears we are looking at a period of lake effect snow as well on the backside, Sunday into Monday. More to come this week as details emerge.

I have had a trace on a couple of occasions, but unless it fell and night and melted before I could see it in the morning there hasn't been anything measurable. Look at the snow maps, there is a donut hole around this part of the state.

I'll take that since I am one of the few remaining people in this sub to have not had a measurable snowfall yet this season.

For those of you fixated on only one aspect of this pandemic - the raw numbers, this health crisis is so often overlooked. http:// https://apnews.com/article/anxiety-mental-health-boston-coronavirus-pandemic-massachusetts-004adb5ee0ef17ff4b5e2e294e36ff3d

Is the GFS trying to model a clipper at the end of the run? That would be a nice change if that really happens.

Bare ground by evening?

Guess I was referring to places west of you. For example in my area snowfall stats. GRR SINCE JUL 1 0.4 7.3 -6.9 6.8 MKG SINCE JUL 1 1.2 6.2 -5.0 10.9 Precip stats are also on the drier side during this time period.

I thought La Nina years were supposed to be active. This snoozefest needs to go.

Why not 60% or 75%? Pure speculation at best. Give some reasoning please.

If this were true why are so many countries struggling then?

This is 5 days or so in a row with declining numbers in Michigan. Not sure if it is a trend or a blip.

11-12” in Noble County. Definitely not happening. It takes a pretty rare storm to produce like that in SE Ohio.

Having spend the first 39 years of my life in Ohio, I couldn't decide which reaction to use. I feel your pain. It makes those times it actually does pan out even more special. You have to love that little retrograde action going on later in the run also.

My dad told stories of moving into his new house during that weekend. That was one everyone remembered in the area for sure. Sounds like it was quite the event in SE Ohio.

Sure seems pretty clueless with what to do with that low.

Best advice you'll ever see regarding the upcoming winter.

Peak gust of 58 here today. Very windy day overall.

Not to mention the rise in suicides - "We’ve already seen a steady rise in deaths by suicide over the past two decades and a new report by The Well Being Trust released last month found that 75,000 additional people could die from what they called “deaths of despair,” (which include suicide and substance use) because of Covid-19." https://www.psycom.net/covid-19-suicide-rates

At the risk of being a little political and definitely putting on the body armor for the flames coming my way. Below are a couple of comments from various articles I read earlier today. Ben Franklin stated, “Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.” Just because something is a good idea does NOT mean that the government has the right or authority to ORDER it. Our system of government is based on the presumption that adult citizens have the right to make their own decisions, for good or ill. Freedom includes the freedom to act foolishly.

In the Grand Rapids area they are already forecasting longer turnaround times and only testing symptomatic people in some locations.

This is the point that should be more prominent. Masks help, but they are not 100% effective. So many people think wear a mask and you are safe. Don't wear one and you are dead when in reality what really happens is somewhere in between.