StormyClearweather

GFS and the Euro definitely seem to be meeting in the middle -- although wouldn't surprise me at all now if they just pass each other right by. *edit wrong run posted originally

LWX alludes to this in their discussion today: THERE IS A CONCERN FOR A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME HIRES GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THIS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW BECAUSE MOST GUIDANCE THAT IS INDICATING THIS, SHOWS MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S UNDERNEATH LOW CLOUDS THAT DO NOT MIX OUT. HOWEVER, THE LAYER APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW, SO LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE LAYER SHOULD MIX OUT LATE IN THE MORNING/AFTERNOON, CAUSING HIGHER MAX TEMPS THAT WHAT THAT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING. THIS WOULD KEEP THE THREAT MORE ISOLATED (PERHAPS HIGHLAND COUNTY OR WESTERN MD).

Is there any precip left by then?

The precip is (mostly) gone by 0Z, even on the mean, so we'd need more and faster. But maybe that was your point. Seems to me the follow-on event would be more worthwhile to track per the Euro. I do struggle with buying into any cold-chasing-moisture events, but this does look a little different, so who knows.

Just wild. But poor Oneonta.

Yeah, but this is a lot earlier than I remember seeing on previous runs. Shrug.

3KM NAM looks to be showing it too, but less widespread (at 23h anyway).

Yeah, earliest I've seen thus far that I remember for this event. But still going at 1pm.

NAM has light snow breaking out at 12Z tomorrow in parts of NOVA. I'll take my scraps with pleasure. Edit: And the district and MD too.

God I hate the NAM. But I sure do love it. Still snowing at 9Z for most (maybe all) of us.

I'm sure the 18z ECMWF will make it all better.

@WxUSAFPromised me three feet of snow. Where is it? Euro ensemble mean looks a bit west to me.

Yeah, I can see how it'd be painful. Even my old backyard in SC got a great snow out of that one, and on Christmas (evening) at that -- my first ever White Christmas. But I probably shouldn't brag.

Ouch. Message received.

Okay so I'm new to the area and keep seeing references to the "storm that shall not be named." So, I have to ask... can somebody at least give me a hint as to what y'all are talking about?

*shrug*

Especially with this kind of anafront/cold chasing moisture sort of setup we got here.

I mean, it's probably wrong, but it matches the HRRR pretty well for whatever that's worth.

It's the volcano's fault.

It would appear we're homing in on the SE VA/NE NC special that some have been suspecting since last night. Hope they cash in!

35+ with at least a hit in the "blues," by my count.

You know it won't and its gonna piss us off. Csn euro be that wrong 72 out? When it the end result is snow for us, yes.

Not bad at all down that way... Keep in mind it's 10:1.

I mean, it probably WON'T happen, but... When you consider it's 10:1, probably not far off from the queen.