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StormyClearweather

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Everything posted by StormyClearweather

  1. StormyClearweather
    18Z GFS remains wintry for the Thu PM/Fri period.
  2. StormyClearweather
  3. StormyClearweather
    LWX alluded to that in their disco and seemed to be saying they think the CAPE is underdone. They don't say why, though. ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE NEARLY 80 KNOTS OF WINDS AT 850 WHICH SUGGEST THAT WE WILL HAVE SHEAR WELL OVER 60 KNOTS AS THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH CAPE AT THIS RANGE IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY LOW, I SUSPECT THE CAPE IS BEING UNDERDONE. IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET EVEN A FEW HUNDREDS OF CAPE COMBINING WITH 60+ KNOTS OF SHEAR, THE REGION COULD SEE A DECENT SVR THREAT.
  4. StormyClearweather
    Concur.
  5. StormyClearweather
    Sure, I guess if you were expecting more than a 1-2 (for most of us). Also shows a little snow band Sunday night too, for whatever that's worth. Still going in Baltimore at this point.
  6. StormyClearweather
    Ya HRRRRRd?
  7. StormyClearweather
    12Z
  8. StormyClearweather
    It's the HRRR toward the end of its run, but quite warm nonetheless. Precip is mostly gone by this point. Trended warmer since its 18Z run.
  9. StormyClearweather
    Perhaps we should start a thread on how to name and organize the threads. Anyway, not bad in the 10–14-day period.
  10. StormyClearweather
    Definitely a much warmer trend for Friday on the 6Z guidance, which isn't surprising. Assuming it holds, does this combined with the Sunday storm debacle mean the GFS sucks again? Just want to make sure I have my talking points right.
  11. StormyClearweather
    I post the snow map because none of the others seem to have loaded yet on WB (weirdly enough). It's north of 12Z for sure.
  12. StormyClearweather
  13. StormyClearweather
    Yeah, Sunday storm goes south of us (most of us anyway).
  14. StormyClearweather
    GFS and the Euro definitely seem to be meeting in the middle -- although wouldn't surprise me at all now if they just pass each other right by. *edit wrong run posted originally
  15. StormyClearweather
    LWX alludes to this in their discussion today: THERE IS A CONCERN FOR A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME HIRES GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THIS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW BECAUSE MOST GUIDANCE THAT IS INDICATING THIS, SHOWS MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S UNDERNEATH LOW CLOUDS THAT DO NOT MIX OUT. HOWEVER, THE LAYER APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW, SO LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE LAYER SHOULD MIX OUT LATE IN THE MORNING/AFTERNOON, CAUSING HIGHER MAX TEMPS THAT WHAT THAT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING. THIS WOULD KEEP THE THREAT MORE ISOLATED (PERHAPS HIGHLAND COUNTY OR WESTERN MD).
  16. StormyClearweather
    Is there any precip left by then?
  17. StormyClearweather
    The precip is (mostly) gone by 0Z, even on the mean, so we'd need more and faster. But maybe that was your point. Seems to me the follow-on event would be more worthwhile to track per the Euro. I do struggle with buying into any cold-chasing-moisture events, but this does look a little different, so who knows.
  18. StormyClearweather
    Just wild. But poor Oneonta.
  19. StormyClearweather
    Yeah, but this is a lot earlier than I remember seeing on previous runs. Shrug.
  20. StormyClearweather
    3KM NAM looks to be showing it too, but less widespread (at 23h anyway).
  21. StormyClearweather
    Yeah, earliest I've seen thus far that I remember for this event. But still going at 1pm.
  22. StormyClearweather
    NAM has light snow breaking out at 12Z tomorrow in parts of NOVA. I'll take my scraps with pleasure. Edit: And the district and MD too.
  23. StormyClearweather
    God I hate the NAM. But I sure do love it. Still snowing at 9Z for most (maybe all) of us.
  24. StormyClearweather
    I'm sure the 18z ECMWF will make it all better.
  25. StormyClearweather
    @WxUSAFPromised me three feet of snow. Where is it? Euro ensemble mean looks a bit west to me.
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