snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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I know you don’t think it is, but I think solar and geomag alone completely eliminate 10-11 as an analog. And as far as the usual clowns on twitter trying to say 95-96 is an analog, that’s even more laughable, solar, QBO, PDO, PMM, AGW, etc, etc., and on and on, don’t match at all but let’s wishcast it as an analog anyway
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I think given the updated MEI, the twitter crowd can stop denying that the atmosphere is solidly into a La Niña state, there’s more to it than SSTs
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Pray the Aleutian ridge does something favorable because the more I look at it, the more I’m convinced this is going to be a strong +AO/+NAO winter. IMO if there’s any help that’s where it comes from and right now, I think poleward spikes are going to be transient and not dominant
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The MEI is going to couple this year. We’ve been in a Niña background for months
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The very strong -PDO and -PMM are definitely playing a role in this Niña. None of the models are showing an east-based event, nor were they ever. If you look at where this trade wind burst is projected to take place, a central-based La Niña definitely has support
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The background states contributed to 01-02 yes. But I think there is more than enough evidence to blame high solar flux as the main contributor for that winter. It’s no coincidence that blocky winters are low solar/low sunspots. Also, high geomag is known big factor in +NAO development
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Got ya. I’m fairly confident in a warmer than normal fall (SON) and possibly dry. The EURO-UK is showing a rather zonal, dry fall. If I had to guess right now, all 3 months are above average with November the most mild/dry
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Take it with a grain of salt obviously, but the new EURO-UKMET super blend seasonal run is suggesting a very flat Aleutian ridge as opposed to a poleward one. Is it right? Flip a coin. And to your point on the high solar flux possibly affecting the NAO, I’d have to agree. Sunspots and geomag are off the charts right now
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Good link. The new runs of the NMME and EURO-UK are showing a region 3.4 centered event, so “central-based”? I guess we can call it. This is pretty crazy, despite La Niña, -PDO, IOD changes (models now going for a -IOD this fall), global temps/AGW refuse to drop
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We’ll see, I think SON all average above normal, however, I see November as the most above average month and most likely the driest. I think that 3 month period as a whole averages drier than normal with the caveat being any tropical systems in Sept and Oct
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@40/70 Benchmark What are your thoughts for the fall? Just musing but based on everything right now synopitcally, I’m thinking warmer than normal for SON with November being the warmest and driest out of the 3 months and possibly drier than normal minus any tropical events of course in Sept and Oct. Not going into any winter thoughts until November….
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The waters off Japan are anomalously warm as heck. If that model run is correct, the PDO will be severely negative in November
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@Bluewave Besides the central-based La Niña and continuation of the strong +AMO it’s showing come November, look at how severely negative the PDO gets, the WPAC warm pool is crazy on this new run. Also, has the -PMM continuing and the new climate model runs are getting stronger with the -IOD come October
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Finally a major (positive) SOI response consistent with a developing -ENSO. Here is the EURO-UKMET super blend SST map for November. As you can see, the event is concentrated in region 3.4:
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Just to add, if the models are correct about where the EWB is going to be taking place, it would lend some credibility to the NMME idea of this La Niña being region 3.4 centered
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Not saying it’s right, but the new NMME has the Niña developing as a central-based event….
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Just out of curiosity for comparison to this year, (obviously current anomalies like the ++AMO, record low arctic sea ice, AGW and extreme WPAC/Atlantic warm pools are not going to be able to be found). But if someone can lookup any years that were the following: La Niña (non east-based events), strong -PDO, -PMM, +QBO, -IOD, +AMO, MJO 4-6 dominant, high solar/high geomag. Also, if any years had all those factors and were also volcanic. Thank you
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The new Euro is clearly showing classic La Niña/-PDO/-PMM/-IOD looking atmosphere, along with a very muted STJ this winter. Also very suggestive of Niña MJO (4-6) forcing, which is no surprise at all:
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Nino 3.4 is going to cool a lot if these model runs are correct. Looking more and more certain by the day that there’s going to be an official La Niña this winter. Cold-neutral is already a given
