snowman19

Another thing we’ve been seeing a lot of is the SE ridge/WAR verifying much stronger as we get closer in time thanks to the ++AMO. It has been a common theme for several years now and looks to continue

Looking at the ensembles for the next couple of weeks, as of now, your find is pretty uncanny. Aug appears that it will be a break month from the heat. If this continues to follow the script, we see the break this month, then Sept-Nov go way above average, Dec is “neutral”, then Jan-Mar go way above average again….

Was looking at it more today, if there is a Niña, I’m starting to think ONI stays weak, which wouldn’t make 07-08 (I know Ray likes that one) and 16-17 bad. The big problem with 16-17 is the PDO and PMM don’t match (both were positive back then), the +QBO does match however as does the -IOD, +AMO and the MJO 4-6 Niña forcing. The best solar match is still 01-02, very good solar match actually and if it stays cold-neutral would definitely be a good ENSO match and would also match all the other background states we have now

I think this current record spike in the upper tropospheric temps is the result of a few things….Hunga Tonga, last year’s very strong El Niño and the high solar flux/high UV that’s occurring right now @so_whats_happening

@bluewave Question, when you looked into the south-based -NAO blocks we’ve been having due to the ++AMO/Atlantic marine heatwave cycle, did you find that the ever increasing strength of the SE ridge/WAR were what was/is causing them to link up? Or were the blocks themselves centered further south?

This is troubling, this is the same effect we saw back in 2001 from that high solar onslaught. The high incoming UV from this major solar flux/record number of sunspots is heating the upper atmosphere. This mid-latitude upper atmospheric heating from UV is what caused the SPV to shrink and strengthen and in turn lead to ++AO back in ‘01. Then we saw the raging westerly zonal flow take over for months

True. And as far as the AMO going off the charts positive the last few years, it has only served to magnify and feedback into the SE ridge/WAR and result in south-based -NAO blocks when one actually does show up. @bluewave has been all over it

-PDO on roids, as relentless as the MJO 4-6 forcing

I mean the AMO was positive back in 01-02 and that was our last dry winter. Yes, I know that it wasn’t as ridiculously positive as it is now, but still positive nonetheless

A “neutral” December based on what averages though? The new AGW ones? Or the old ones? And I went back and looked at it for myself, Chuck wasn’t kidding, it’s extremely ugly for Nov-Mar, every month (minus December) isn’t just above average, they are way above average

@GaWx Mentioned that possibility (dry winter) awhile back. The last legit dry winter for the east coast was 22 years ago

I think at this point our ONI options are either cold-neutral or weak Niña. The RONI may get to low-end moderate/high-end weak

Shades of 2001: Final sunspot number for July….over 250. Even more activity coming. Also, very high geomag

@brooklynwx99 I think the best case is a La Niña does develop. If we go cold-neutral, then we are at the mercy of all the other antecedent and background conditions in the absence of a signal from ENSO. And the best match for that is 2001-02 with this record breaking solar max. The strong Niña background state won’t be denied, the west PAC warm pool/MJO 4-6 won’t be denied, the -PDO won’t be denied and neither will the high solar flux. People made that mistake (ignoring solar flux) back in 2001

Of the recent Nina’s, over the last 30 years, where a similar scenario happened, you only had one translate into a really favorable AO winter (1995), the rest (2001, 2011, 2007), not so much…..

If you take a look at the animation, you can see the tropical instability waves (cooling) diffuse throughout region 3.4, pushing into region 4. That is not indicative of an east-based event. If you look at how a true east-based Niña develops (i.e. 2017), it was strictly confined to regions 1+2, 3 and the far eastern portion of 3.4. This one however, clearly is not…..

Textbook tropical instability waves. Beautiful. Also, this is NOT developing as an east-based event:

@Gawx

Yes there was -NAO blocking at that point but there was no arctic air to be had on our side of the pole. The UV was off the charts from September through late March, it heated the mid-latitude tropopause, shrunk and strengthened the SPV the AO went ++ and resulted in roaring zonal flow for months. The strong Niña background state, -PDO, etc. didn’t help matters either

Yep the good old days of the GFS. It would show blizzards into June

That is true. Back in Dec. 2001, JB was hemming and hawing that a huge winter was coming because of that -NAO Dec. That was his infamous “vodka cold” winter. Nothing but screaming zonal and semizonal flow off the PAC for months on end courtesy of the relentless high solar onslaught

Really since 19-20, we haven’t had an overall robust +NAO/+AO winter. Given the signals so far this year however, that may change this coming winter. It’s a rather ugly picture getting painted