snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Here comes the next surge in sunspots….
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I agree. The -PDO/-AMO patterns of the past are just that, the past. I remember seeing a Joe Bastardi CNN interview clip that someone shared a few years ago from 2003 I think it was? Anyway, he said we were going back into the exact weather pattern of the 1940’s-1970’s. Replica. Was absolutely sure about it, convinced. Good lord was that an epic fail
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If it’s correct then it’s a flat Aleutian ridge as opposed to a poleward one, which would support more of the status quo we’ve been seeing since 15-16. And @40/70 Benchmark my question is if the AMO is ABOUT to flip, can we use -AMO analogs for this winter? Or would the flip have to be complete (probably not till next summer, assuming that’s what indeed is happening) to see the long wave effects from it? I’m just reluctant to say it’s definitely flipping because of the 13-14 -AMO false alarm
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I would think that transient spikes during a minimum period would have less important effects than a big spike during an overall solar max period over many months. Adding a cumulative effect that potentiates everything
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30 days? I wouldn’t take the CFS seriously for November until Halloween
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Joe D used it to explain what happened with the 01-02 winter. He attributed the increased UV from the high solar flux/max heating the upper troposphere in the low and mid latitudes leading to the SPV shrinking and moving directly over the North Pole and causing the raging zonal PAC jet and very strong westerly flow that winter Link: https://www.weatherbell.com/newsletter-10-11-2011-f
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They had to be talking about the anomalies, which you and I already suspected. And I agree, we are nowhere near the peak of this +QBO since it just turned positive in June. The peak very likely doesn’t happen until sometime this winter
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While AGW might definitely be playing a role, if you look back on the 01-02 high solar flux of cycle 23, we saw the same spike in upper tropospheric temps/warming over the low and mid latitudes from the increased UV
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For sure and it’s showing no sign of letting up. I would not be surprised to see this season finish with an ACE of 110-140
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If you look at when the upper tropospheric temps really started to rise, it was right when the solar flux/geomag and UV started spiking, not a coincidence
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Too far out to think about but maybe? Especially if there’s a PDO flip next summer. As far as peer reviewed studies on Joe D’Aleo’s theory, I haven’t seen any personally, however given the very warm upper troposphere temps in the low and mid latitudes right now, the fact that we saw the exact same thing back in 01-02 with the last big solar max, I have to believe that there is truth to it. Joe is not one to be that confident in something without having good evidence to back up his claims
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East-based is not happening. That ship has sailed. No models ever showed an east-based event and none do now. In fact, the new CANSIPS has region 1+2 with warm anomalies this winter. From Raindance:
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If this season does turn into an epic bust (ACE below to well below 150), the question is why and I think it goes beyond an “Atlantic Niña”/possible very early stages of an AMO shift). Was it this record high solar flux/sunspots and geomag? I think that’s playing a huge role; increased high UV heating the low and mid latitude’s upper troposphere’s causing stabilization. Did the Ruang volcanic eruptions in April also play some role? Possibly, but likely minor
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My gut is that this Atlantic hurricane season ends below 150 ACE, possibly way below that….
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The picture for winter right now is ugly, I don’t think anyone here is going to dispute that. Still waiting to see the official raw QBO number for August. If that’s actually as high as I saw posted on twitter yesterday, it will make an already ugly picture even uglier. There’s no way to sugar coat the QBO going very strongly positive right now in the face of the other variables we already have
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Not a shot against the quality non met posters here at all. We have quality posters, like yourself. Some of the ones on twitter however leave a lot to be desired
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Good question. The person who posted it did not say, that’s why I’m trying to confirm if it was the anomalies or the raw number. If that’s actually the raw number (approaching +20), considering we are going to continue rising this fall, we are in big trouble. DT’s research has proven that very strong positive QBO’s lead to a raging zonal PAC jet by adding speed and westerly momentum to the upper atmosphere
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@Stormchaserchuck1 Have you seen the new QBO update for August yet? I just read on twitter that it’s up to almost +20. I take what I read there from people who aren’t mets with a grain of salt unless I can verify it as fact myself. If that’s actually true, it’s a real bad sign
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^Wanted to add to this that it looks like we are going to see a big GOA cold pool develop over the next month. The Bering Sea is cooling very rapidly right now. Looking at the past, this evolution normally results in downstream cooling of the GOA and the development of a cold pool there
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If you look further, the high ACE years were not only low sunspots but also majority low geomag
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This (solar cycle) is exactly what happened back in 01-02. The incoming UV from the high solar flux warms the low and mid latitude’s upper troposphere’s @donsutherland1
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I also wonder how much of a factor the warm tropical tropopause in the Atlantic (AGW related) is playing in this…
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Now that we are into September, the following look like very good bets going into November, baring some dramatic, unexpected change over the next 2 months: strong -PDO, -PMM, weak -IOD, -ENSO (central based), +QBO (possibly strong?), +AMO/New Foundland warm pool, MJO favoring phases 4-6, high solar flux/high geomag, low arctic sea ice, any minor, unkown impacts on the stratosphere from the Ruang volcanic eruptions back in April @Gawx
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All the new model runs look terrible for Atlantic TC development now. We are starting to run out of time for a hyperactive season with very high ACE and a big number of named storms
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Just saw the new Nov-Mar 500mb maps and it looks unimpressive, completely void of high latitude NAO/AO blocking and it goes canonical Niña torch Feb/Mar. Aleutian ridge city, negative PNAish and it pumps the SE ridge starting in Jan
