snowman19

The summer of 2011 was absolutely brutal

11-12 was a prime example of certain folks using the -QBO = big high latitude (AO/NAO) blocking….cold/snowy winter broad brush. I remember many winter outlooks that went cold and snowy for the east that fall based in very large part to the -QBO, only to colossally fail

I agree with you. Up to this point in time, things seem to be lining up against a -NAO/-AO winter

I mean we saw -EPO poleward blocking last winter with a +QBO, which actually fit the Eric Webb musings in the fall of +QBO/-ENSO causing poleward ridging well. I also completely see your -QBO/-ENSO blocking arguments too, 2011-12 being an exception of course. That said, I would be absolutely shocked to see a late November to early March cold regime dominate again this upcoming winter like it did last winter

So a coast to coast CONUS torch winter from Dec-Mar. If that was to actually happen I couldn’t imagine the meltdowns

I wonder if this winter will be another case of the long wave pattern/forcing resembling a strong La Niña even though ENSO is in a cold-neutral or a weak La Niña state

Looking at the EPS/GEFS/GEPS I’m starting to think there is going to be a risk for another major heat wave and big ridge moving into the east around mid-July

Good graphic. All supportive of the current thinking of where we are heading…..which is -ENSO (cold-neutral or weak La Niña)

EPS is showing a strong EWB in ENSO region 3.4 to start July. That should induce upwelling and renewed cooling

The solar connection to the NAO [mention=882]Gawx[/mention] found is a strong one. One of the other strongest ones I’ve seen besides your index, is a “tripole” in the SSTS appearing in June, corresponding to it reappearing during the winter months along with the associated -NAO. The study found that when June was completely void of a tripole, it corresponded to a predominantly +NAO winter. The Atlantic ACE connection to the NAO that some swear by was way too sketchy to be reliable IMO

Yea, I mean if there’s any truth to it and we do in fact see a -ENSO/-QBO and a ridge into the North Pole come Dec-Mar, then we can call bullshit

I think this will be a really big test of the cold-ENSO/+QBO correlating to a poleward ridge and cold ENSO/-QBO correlating to a flat/equatorial ridge theory and research that Eric Webb tweeted about extensively late last fall. If there is any validity to it, we should be able to see the evidence of that this upcoming cold season (Dec-Mar)

We have but we appear to be going back into a severely negative PDO again

It’s also one hell of a -PMM developing. Would not surprise me if we go weak La Niña. Cold-neutral is pretty much guaranteed

That’s southern hemisphere late winter or spring Ray. So our late summer or fall. BOM is Australia. They are in winter now

No not really. There is strong consensus. See @CP_WinterStorm post above this

BOM http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/?ninoIndex=nino3.4&index=nino34&period=weekly

We now have model consensus on a -IOD developing during the summer and fall

Interesting. Could definitely be playing a role in the strong +NAO winter tendency we’ve been seeing for years now. Besides the +AMO, I also think arctic sea ice and climate change have a hand in it too

Those cold SSTs off the California coast and Baja are -PMM. This -PDO regime has been nothing short of astounding

Just eyeballing the latest PAC SSTs, the PDO has gone severely negative again

Up to this point in time, I’m not seeing a ton of similarities with 2013

I really don’t like even looking at winter at this point in time, that said, at this extremely early stage, I think we can assume a few things going into fall at least…. -PDO, -ENSO (either cold-neutral or weak La Niña; possibly a Modoki, central-based event?, -IOD, -PMM, +AMO, -QBO, still active sun; high solar/geomag, but descending from the solar max peak of last winter, *possible* average to below average Atlantic hurricane season; along with either average to below average ACE, very likely below to well below average arctic sea ice again. Other than that, I wouldn’t venture into guessing the possible oscillation (PNA, EPO, WPO, AO, NAO) states until we are into fall

I would have to say I agree. It would probably take a classic (sulfate aerosol) tropical volcanic eruption of a Mount Tambora, VEI 7 scale, to have a profound effect on global temperatures at this point

We are getting multi-model consensus now on a -IOD developing this summer. If so, that will be the final nail in the coffin for any chance of a +ENSO forming…..