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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    The CFS is predicting the first ever “super” La Niña lol
  2. snowman19
    Not only solar minimum but also low geomag. HM did a write up years ago on why solar minimum/low geomag strongly supports -NAO winters
  3. snowman19
    IMO the very high solar flux is going to be the elephant in the room this upcoming winter. It is going to be a big player just like the 2001 solar flux was
  4. snowman19
    This is going to be both a very high solar and very high geomag winter. The current overperforming solar max cycle is expected to peak (sunspots) around October
  5. snowman19
    @GaWx My guess is that if the PDO stays negative he will say that and the +QBO “matches” 2010 and if there’s an above normal/high Atlantic ACE hurricane season, he will say that it matches 1995. So it’s the best of both worlds for him. If for some odd reason (in the very unlikely event) the PDO goes positive, all the better. Either way, 95 and 10 will be his analogs, you can see it now
  6. snowman19
    Very simple reason why he’s hyping a +PDO winter despite the mountains of evidence against that….95-96 was a highly unusual +PDO/La Niña winter. He has ulterior motives as always. He will also say that the +QBO matches 10-11. It’s all about cold and snow for the east coast to him, all the time….
  7. snowman19
    @donsutherland1 How long before we see Joe Bastardi pull out 95-96 and 10-11 as his “analogs” for next winter? He’s already wishcasting a hyper active Atlantic tropical season with recurving hurricanes so he can use the La Niña/high Atlantic ACE = -NAO winter theory (i.e. 1995)…….
  8. snowman19
    “Cold” in mid-late April doesn’t have the same meaning it does in March
  9. snowman19
    Models are backing off on the cold! Let’s keep this trend going! It’s a beautiful, wonderful thing!!
  10. snowman19
    I hate the heat and humidity but I’m rooting for upper 90’s with 80 degree dewpoints just because of him
  11. snowman19
    Reading on twitter now that the ash plume has reached over 70,000 ft. This is going to be an interesting one to follow
  12. snowman19
    It’s getting more impressive by the hour. Sulfate aerosol measurements are continuing to rise and it appears to be reaching the stratosphere
  13. snowman19
    @Volcanic Winter @bluewave Just to add, there is some speculation that this eruption may reach a VEI 6. Wouldn’t that be unprecedented to have 2 VEI 6 eruptions this close together? I know Hunga Tonga was a 6….
  14. snowman19
    This *could* potentially have big stratospheric implications….major tropical volcanic eruption ongoing. If this thing pumps enough sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, it could conceivably have effects on next winter’s SPV and NAM (AO) state. This needs to be followed closely @Volcanic Winter…
  15. snowman19
    If the models are overdoing this +IOD event, which is possible and we go into a -IOD, I think this La Niña explosively develops this summer and fall, should that happen, there’s a chance it becomes a record event (i.e. 73-74, 88-89). The ingredients, both atmospheric and oceanic are definitely there
  16. snowman19
    @bluewave @donsutherland1 Looks like we hit the peak of this overperforming solar maximum cycle around October, sunspots maxing out. Looks to be a high solar/high geomag winter coming up, effects TBD….
  17. snowman19
    It feels like the middle of May this morning. And yea a taste of things to come. All the soil moisture evaporating out and doing its dirty work. We are in for a very humid and very hot summer IMO
  18. snowman19
    @Bluewave Growing support for east-west tracks and not recurving hurricanes/tropical storms. Haven’t seen that in awhile
  19. snowman19
    The peepers have been out at night since mid-March. This was the earliest I can ever remember that
  20. snowman19
    Nice! 1-2 more inches of rain between now and Sunday. Just what we need….
  21. snowman19
    The models are also predicting a flip to a +PMM, which when combined with a +AMO/Nina/+IOD is HIGHLY supportive of a hyper active Atlantic hurricane season
  22. snowman19
    Saw that. My question is does that rare +IOD/Nina combo continue through fall? My guess is no
  23. snowman19
    Just a very, very early preliminary look (which means nothing at this point), would seemingly support a La Niña, orientation and strength to be determined, +QBO, -PDO, maybe neutral to negative IOD come fall?, +AMO, high solar/high geomag. Snow cover and ice cover to be determined in the fall
  24. snowman19
    I suspect areas of metro see 80’s next week. Very likely more than once too
  25. snowman19
    Yea and I suspect the developing Nina only serves to reinforce the -PDO
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