snowman19

The weeklies turned out to be right in the end about a February torch….they were just too fast with it….about 2 weeks too fast, they rushed the MJO

Big question here….are the weeklies rushing/progressing the MJO too fast yet again…..just like they did in January when they kept torching early-mid February? My guess is yes they are too quick and the change doesn’t happen until mid-late March, like what just occurred this month. I think a change does happen but not that fast…..

^I think any change would come after mid-March just in time to ruin the end of March and April. Would not be at all surprised to see -NAO blocking develop in late March and go into April…..

Remember when the models were “racing” the MJO last month and they had early February torching? Then it didn’t?

And if that’s correct….big IF….it’s mid-March at that point, you will be fighting a September sun angle (August sun angle by the end of the month), climo and length of day. What are you hoping to achieve at that point? Mid-late March “cold” is way different than Dec, Jan, Feb cold. Maybe a very anomalous, late season fluke snow event that will melt the very next day? Not sure why you think that look would be a win south of New England at that point in time….

You are using the wrong composites. Shocker

Posting a CFS run for March 15th on February 13th? Really? If I did this I’d be nailed to the cross. This is banter

I live in Sloatsburg. All the plow guys had to do was salt there isn’t enough snow to plow and it’s just about over here, just flurries now. Slightly over an inch on the grass all roads black

Big 1 inch here. Roads are black, light snow Edit: snow really starting to slow down now

Look at the new RGEM, it’s almost identical to the Euro

We’ll see how much snow NYC has tomorrow morning around 10 when this ends. I’ll be sure to post the amounts and the pics

Poor me? Lol This is an inch of snow coming off temps in the mid to upper 50’s less than 12 hours before. The HRRR is too far NW as usual and by game time it will be back to reality like the other models. The Euro is the best depiction of what is very likely to happen tomorrow morning

Your area isn’t getting anything regardless lol but look at the 3K NAM, it looks nothing at all like the 12K NAM. Huge Red flag right there something is wrong with that outlier run

It’s on drugs. It’s the NAM being the NAM, it usually does this at either 6z or 18z, no other model is showing anything even close to that

Dr. Lee said this is NOT a SSWE being shown at mid-month. The models are actually keeping a very strong SPV into late March:

According to Dr. Lee, it’s not even a true SSWE being shown in mid-March, the models actually keep it strong into late March:

Agreed. It’s a sheared out, disjointed mess of nothing that never gets its act together, fast flow and the lifting just falls apart. All 12z models show this. The metro area will be lucky to see an inch, most will get a dusting/coating on the grass and car tops

He got his report from Stevie Wonder and Ray Charles. They said the weeklies look great

I’m sure everyone will be shocked but the new ICON has nothing, zippo for Sunday

A moderate event is now off the table. That ship has sailed

This is an isolated inch event at best, maybe, for some areas, most won’t even see that. All the 12z model runs (minus the horrible ICON) were less than an inch total, some barely a dusting/coating

Some of the posts today about a pattern change mid-March have a point. If the GEFS is showing phase 7 and a weakening SPV come 3/16, it’s probably rushing it, just like we saw this month where the pattern change was rushed, so add a week or 2 and you’re looking at late March in reality. Once you get past 3/15, you are fighting sun angle, climo and length of day. Can you get a snowstorm in late March? Of course you can and have. But minus a completely anomalous, fluke event, major snowstorms in the metro area after 3/15 are very few and very far between. Other question if you’re looking for snow is will there even be arctic air around the CONUS to tap at that point?

Euro, total miss like the UKMET

And the GFS caves to the Euro…..

Absolutely no evidence whatsoever of any SSWE right through the beginning of March, also the tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent and we get into a mild pattern by the 20th, also looks like March is going to be mild as well as of now: