snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Interior northern New England may get something out of it…..
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We currently have one of the strongest ENSO standing waves on record:
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We got lucky with the +PDO Nina’s since 2000. This year….different story. Also great point about those torched SSTs along and off the coast. They are just going to feedback into the SE Ridge/WAR
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Last night’s ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) were extremely ugly, +EPO, +AO, -PNA, +NAO, as far as the eye can see and they all have lost the -WPO look they had been advertising as well. The new CFS and CANSIPS runs for the month of December were equally as terrible
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No, considering the EPO is positive and the WPO is neutral at the same time. I don’t think many expected the PAC to cooperate when we saw the strongest -PDO since 1955 and the coldest GOA since the late 1970’s. When you factor in the La Niña and -PMM (which strongly favors -PNA/RNA), it was obvious our chances this winter were going to have hinge on the AO/NAO
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If December sucks in a Niña, it’s usually a very, very bad sign for the rest of winter
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And if this is correct, we are not going to see -NAO for awhile:
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I unfollowed him last winter he’s awful. His tweets are bipolar and it seems like he hasn’t a clue
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It is going to take absolutely perfect timing to pull off a snowstorm next Monday; +NAO, +AO, -PNA, +EPO, neutral WPO, roaring PAC jet. Not saying it can’t happen but when you depend on really good luck and perfect timing it normally doesn’t work out very well
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The operational 6Z GFS at 180 hours….that’s guaranteed to verify Lmfaoo
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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas
snowman19 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Yea, let’s predict a +PNA for the entire month of December in a Niña approaching moderate status. Brilliant, should work out great. This guy isn’t even a meteorologist -
@bluewave Here is the discussion on this with Griteater and Don Sutherland from last fall, 2020: https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1959-met-winter-20-21-pattern-drivers-evolution/
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One thing to keep in mind is an article HM wrote several years ago, A -QBO/Niña combo favors a flat Aleutian Ridge from Dec-Mar. On the other hand, A +QBO/Niña combo favors a poleward Aleutian Ridge from Dec-Mar
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The current healthy -ENSO and background state in the PAC strongly supports the MJO continuing to stay stagnant in phases 4-6. Every attempt by the models to advance it beyond phase 6 has failed since September 1st
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@bluewave We are in a very stagnant pattern for sure Don. And all that talk last month of a rapidly dying La Niña were wrong. We are about to see it go into moderate territory:
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How is it going to propagate east into phases 7, 8, 1, with the easterlies screaming from the Niña all the way to the dateline? They are going to shear the wave to shreds:
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https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2021112700&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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It’s a nothing burger my man lol enjoy the flurries on Sunday lol
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It’s been popping up and that storm is going to cut. No -NAO block to stop it from cutting, no -AO, and the phantom +PNA is going to disappear and flatten out with the PAC jet crashing into it. The GFS, CMC, Euro, GEFS, GEPS, EPS all have it as a cutter and with good reason
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@bluewaveStill a firehose PAC jet in the long range as far as the eye can see. It shows no signs of letting up. It also looks like the +EPO has established a positive feedback loop due to the super cold GOA/severely -PDO and the extremely deep snowpack over all of Alaska. It’s just continuing to manufacture it’s own extreme cold there due to the very heavy snowpack and lack of sun, Alaska is setting all kinds of cold records
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It looks like the 6z Euro started a trend. The GFS, ICON, Ukie and CMC all want nothing to do with it now either
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The La Niña driven easterly trades are absolutely roaring up to the dateline. Any MJO wave that tries to propagate into phases 7, 8 is going to get ripped apart and sheared to shreds
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This is an extremely well coupled La Niña/-PDO/-PMM system in place right now:
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The 6z Euro is a nothing burger for Sunday/Sunday night. Weak, disjointed mess, barely any QPF
