EastonSN+

Just now, bluewave said:

It seems like the forcing further west than forecast is helping to pop these transient Southeast ridges which reduce the suppression risk. But at the same time it introduces P-Type issues. We would probably need a real thread the needle scenario before the month is out for a start to finish all snow with temperatures not rising much above freezing to maximize accumulation potential. 

Wouldn't shorter wavelengths help post 15th? Bowling ball lows.

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

12z geps is actually slightly south of 0z

Complete opposite of the GFS suite.

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

A smidge north and stronger than 6z, however, the ensembles tend to follow the op at this range.

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie is like the cmc maybe slightly north 

Really strange but it gives a little validity to the Canadian solution.

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It’s not a pure MJO 8 since convection never really goes away west to the Dateline. 

 

Given the IO temps, I think higher amplitude in phases 1,2 and 3 are our best opportunity. Yeah phase 8 will be weak.

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

 

Okay so let's go with the idea that this is cyclic and we are going to see a repeat of the 70s through the 80s.

But if this is cyclic then we should have seen something like the 70s through the 80s before.

But we didn't-- those two decades (let's forget the 90s they were near normal snowfall wise, let's just stick with average snowfall)-- really stick out for being the lowest on record in the entire history of record keeping at Central Park.

 

Pre 55 was pretty good for snowfall, certainly MUCH better than the 70s and 80s, we had some of our snowiest and coldest years in the 30s and 40s (and yes also some of our mildest in the 30s.)

Now if we say it's a combo of cyclic AND climate change, then it makes more sense, because that would explain why the 70s and 80s were so much worse than the previous snowfall minimal decades.  But that would also mean that what we're now entering will probably be worse than the 70s and 80s were.

I don't know how we can do worse than 4 above average snowfall seasons in 30 years. We had already 1 in 6 if we include this year. Also, the 90s only had 2 years above average in that 10 year span.

Just now, NEG NAO said:

CMC is not suppressed at 12Z with the rain/smpw line just weak no dynamics in mild airmass

It did move south wrt low pressure location. Yes weaker.

Just now, NEG NAO said:

Trend is not our friend

 

Yeah, we lose with the GFS and the Canadian in opposite directions.

Obviously I weigh the GFS higher than the Canadian, however there is no clear trend yet between the three major models.

All depends on EURO. If it moves north than yes concerning.

Lol the GDPS is a scraper. Actually south and weaker. 1 to 3 for central Jersey.

Also, the GFS move SLIGHTLY north. It's not like it was a jump. Could be noise or a trend. Too early to tell.

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

just like I predicted a few minutes ago

Eh, really depends on what the EURO does. 

Just now, MJO812 said:

Gfs more north 

Not good

Yeah CPK drops from 2.6 to 2.1. 

Just now, ILoveWinter said:

ICON is def a northerly outlier wow. Today's runs will be quite telling. 

I know overly simplistic, however, not a bad idea omit the outliers and take a weighted average of the primary models.

The outliers being ICON and RGEM.

5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Clowns will clown.

Antecedent airmass sucks. Check

Confluence over northeast gone. Check

Northern stream comes in late. Check.

 

Good luck in southern SNE.

Wait, the confluence is gone?

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Pattern goes back to Nina after the 24th..

 

We have a week to get something before it’s over 

I don't understand the pessimism on the forum this morning. 

The last window was 1 to 2 weeks, so why was anyone thinking longer? Getting the window to the 24th is great!

Take a look below, it will take a while to get through phases 1 and 2. I don't think 3 is that bad either. 

The warm waters in the IO will help us here.

Also, again, we have left the 55/69 and 00/18 background state with a favorable PAC where it seemed it always worked out. Now we are entering a pre 55, 70/99 background state where we will be frustrated more often than not. 

Please keep in mind Central Park had only 4 above average snowfall winters in 30 years 70 through 99. CPK had 1 above average snowfall season in last 6 if we already include this season. Basically on track.

1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Not really...

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Borrowed from NE forum, comparison 0 to 6z

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Perfect 

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

That’s the gefs and not the eps 

The waters in the western IO are rising fast. Would be shocked if we did not get a spike in phases 1,2 and 3.

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

You can say that again

It's illegal to not get NAM'd at least once a winter.

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. I don’t have much hope anymore. We probably get cold in March but by that time it will be too late for NYC. Awful turn of events

Eh, if this fails we'll get a good winter soon enough.

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We've had 2 inches of snow on the season, there has been 8 days of cold the whole season and there's limited cold for this event....that's why

To be fair we have had over 4 in our area lol

Just now, NEG NAO said:

weird to say the least..........

EURO will be the tie breaker.

CMC

30 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

6z EPS snow map 

Courtesy of MA forum.