EastonSN+

14 hours ago, mitchnick said:

 

That map I posted was the run-to-run change between September and October Euro seasonal.  The actual snowfall anomaly map is above and that shows AN in that location. 

Pretty cut and dry from a historical perspective. Strong El ninos are either warm and relatively snowless or have a short snowy period inclusive of a major event. If we get that period then NC can easily reach above average snowfall.

Basically an all or nothing HR hitter coming to the plate knowing 3 strikeouts are inevitable. However always that chance for a HR in the 4th AB.

On 10/6/2026 at 3:23 PM, EastonSN+ said:

The track of the 1992 storm can be found here. Looks like the primary tracked inland to the DelMarva, stalled, then moved out which is why it rained in the beginning in SNE. Seems very different than the recent noreaster and if 92 followed the recent noreaster's track we would have been buried down to the coast at least.

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-11-12-1992

 

Looking at this in more detail, the 1992 storm was never an ideal track for all snow in NYC/LI and SNE. This past event had a much more favorable track.

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 Chris, you're wrong. December 1992 did exactly what I am saying...it buried most of SNE. I was in a suburb N of Boston and had 20"....Boston had like 9", as did much of N RI. The southern third of the region would have had issues, sure. I said MUCH of SNE...NOT ALL.

You are saying "antecedent warmth"....which inherently implies a dearth of +PP to the north. If there is a high in place, it will take time to dislodge that cold a stone's throw from the shore.

The track of the 1992 storm can be found here. Looks like the primary tracked inland to the DelMarva, stalled, then moved out which is why it rained in the beginning in SNE. Seems very different than the recent noreaster and if 92 followed the recent noreaster's track we would have been buried down to the coast at least.

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-11-12-1992

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

NYC weather is much more like Philly than it is Boston and Philly has already had a T of snowfall and NYC has had less than 6 inches of snowfall half a dozen times.  It's only a matter of time that NYC gets a T of snowfall for the season too. I'd say there's more than a 50 percent chance it happens by or before 2050. It's not a matter of wetter winters you can very easily have a cold and dry pattern alternate with a wet and mild pattern.  It's a very stable configuration that can last an entire season. And with an ocean to the south and east it's very easy to warm up quickly enough that no snow accumulates even transitioning from an arctic to a maritime airmass. It's happened many times.

Its a risk / reward climate here. The chances of breaching 95/96 for the snowiest winter is also on the table any given year due to our proximity to the ocean (noreasters) and latitude. I can see both happening in my lifetime.

In fact the snowiest winter was only 2 years prior to the latest snowfall year of 97/98

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

If by interesting you mean 0 snowfall and +10F winter months then sure

Will be very warm. However even 97/98 had snow. Receiving 0 accumulating snow is almost like predicting no thunderstorms for the year.

At least one ingredient, precipitation, will be in abundance. History has shown 2 great examples of well timed historic snowfalls in super ninos so I am all in for rolling the dice on a super nino.

Our biggest risk for a shutout would be a season like 01/02.

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

If you remember that storm you know how much more historic it was, large parts of NYC and coastal new jersey were underwater I'd never seen such a thing before and not again until Sandy.  I'd argue it was worse than Sandy because it lasted for three days and the precipitation was much more prolonged and much heavier.

I wonder how I would have done in this storm at my current location. I know it would be all snow but how much? The snowicane was all snow here. The Octoblizzard was 20 inches of a very heavy wet snow here just before Halloween.

It was a great elevation snowstorm. Even in CT the higher elevators received a lot. 

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Note where the loop happened offshore that was the meat of the storm not the beginning part which was over land. This most recent much less intense storm retrograde right into central NJ which is why it would be rain in winter. You need a Benchmark track for snow at the coast.  This was a hugger. 

Storm surge with December 1992 was 10.5 feet with this storm it was 3.5 feet.

Thw majority of the precipitation during the 1992 storm happened when the low was over the Chesapeake, the reason the first 2/3 of the storm was rain.

When the low moved offshore we promptly turned to snow. The reason the snow totals were relatively low was a lot of it fell as white rain until the evening (I remember the storm very well as I was working at a grocery store pushing cwrts outside).

This past storm the winds stayed NE/NNE until the storm moved west. Therefore would have been snow.

When the storm ocluded we would have actually turned back to snow. February 2010 is a good example where the CT coast was rain UNTIL the storm moved SW and we turned to snow even with the precip coming in from the SE.

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Wednesday too

3 days 80 to 85.

Two or three days Wednesday through Friday.

No  December 1992 stalled just to the east of Delaware for two days. Winds gusted to hurricane force with very heavy rain and temperatures fell into the upper 30s here. Heavy snow from Sparta NJ west and north.  Over one foot of snow there and up to three feet in PA. On the third day the storm stalled again this time just south of Cape Cod and we all switched to snow and it snowed all day with temperatures just below freezing about an inch or two of snow. We had gusty winds for 5 days here in total. This storm made landfall on the NJ coast no way it would be snow in the winter.  You need a track near Cape cod not to change over to rain in the coastal areas.

 Chris is this for average temperature over the entire year? Does the Lake Harmony temperature and coop record only go back to 2020?

Please see here (link below). This is a rain track for us as it was inland for the majority of the storm. The noreaster we just had was off shore for the majority of the event.

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-11-12-1992

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It's long overstayed its welcome

Naming storms just isn't an objective scientific process. We blame the weather channel for their silly naming scheme but the NHC can be criticized too. Plenty of storms in years like 2005 and 2020 that would not have been named in the 50s and 60s and prior years. I'm sure 1933 would have had a lot more. It's a lot like snowfall measuring. Oh and there was an intentionally not named hurricane during the Perfect Storm October 1991 and that December 1994 storm should have been named too. That one was far stronger than this one. I think Chris posted a video with Dr. Joe Sobel in it?

 

It would have been all rain at the coast just like December 1992 was but much less impact than that historic storm.

Stadium effect?

I wonder if it behaved like the eye of a hurricane?

Landfall location near Tom's River?

Well now it's just tedious and boring.

This thing has long overstayed its welcome and become tedious and boring. I can't wait until humans control the weather and kick these things out.

Still got rain here, sometimes heavy.

It's a hybrid.

These kinds of storms don't belong in September they should not happen before late October.

Tony from that satellite image it looks like the center crossed farther south between Atlantic City and Tom's River.

So all snowfall, rainfall and temperature records from before 1999 are suspect? Well damn they were just saying how today's rainfall record is from Hurricane Gloria in 1985. 6 inches of rain in a storm that moved quickly and tracked further to the east than this one.  What about temperature records from very cold winters like 1993-94 and very hot summers like 1980, 1983  1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999? And those snowfall records from 1987  1988, 1993  1994 and 1996?

1992 went inland over the delmarva which is why the first part of the storm was rain. This one stayed east of us keeping the winds NE to NNE which would have likely been snow (barring a 1998 type el Nino warm environment). 

58 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

still gusting to 50 here-a fair amt of limbs down around town...about 30K without power in CT

I feel like we lucked out big time. Was expecting widespread outages and trees/large limbs down. No branches down here.

Happy the power outages were not as many as expected. Did not lose any branches.

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

50 knots showing up at 925

Winds have been occasionally gusty here in SWCT. Still no high wind warnings however dreading what's coming. Hoping the winds are somehow weaker here.

32 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Would certainly argue for 60 barring some kind of sharp inversion. 

I hope its wrong. 

7 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Euro at 12z still likes the overnight tonight for the strongest winds as the system maxes out for us and starts the hard left turn. 70knts over a good chunk of LI and CT shoreline at 925mb

 

I really hope this underperforms. Otherwise power outages will be substantial.

NWS still caps gusts to 46MPH here in SWCT. Nothing wind warnings.

I hope they are pulling in power crews from other states.

I am dreading this. Probably going to lose power again if the RGEM verifies.

1 minute ago, OrangeCTWX said:

ICON initialized exactly at 99mb for what it’s worth. Gets it down to 987mb

99mb is pretty low....

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

might the start of a string of nor easters with the nino

Hopefully we time one up with enough cold air (despite the strong el nino).

Just now, MJO812 said:

This is the most exciting storm in the Atlantic this year.

I still like the February blizzard.

Good thing the rain comes in waves instead of a continuous downpour. Will help with flooding.

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

First call on the track

 

Hopefully we get a repeat in February 

On 8/8/2026 at 10:58 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Chris, 1995-1996 was  a perfect storm of a flawless pattern and extraordinary luck.....I get what you are saying about the impact of CC of the size of ridges, but we could get an identical pattern to 1995-1996 100 times over and not come away with record snowfall the length of the east coast. That season was a unicorn. The pattern last year was not as favorable, as not only was the NAO severely negative in the mean owed to the easterly QBO/solar min combo, but the WPO was also strongly negative.  The pattern was simply more favorable that year, even if the ridge sizes were identical. Your point is valid, but that isn't the only reason that we didn't get a repeat of 1995-1996.

Thanks for posting this. That season was one favorable pattern after another.

I believe that season could have had even higher snowfall totals in today's environment given the added heat/moisture availability. I remember multiple storms where I had hours of virga and snowfall with temps in the teens and lower 20s. 

21 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Don't weenie tag me but, boy if we can get a phase between the the polar jet stream and what's sure to be an extremely active subtropical jet stream this winter, it could really get a historic snowstorm.

I have been thinking the same thing. 1983 and 2016 shows the potential that super ninos bring. 97/98 is the feared example, however, the west PAC water temps are different this year which can help offset the E PAC warmth in terms of MJO. 

I am actually looking forward to the potential.

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

Latest CDAS suggests resumption of warming started: this is an approximation of ONI but with a slight cold bias (this implies RONI daily equivalent of ~+0.5)

I will be honest, I am looking forward to energy savings. Also, 2 of the last 3 super events had a KU event. Conscious that this is a very small sample size, however I would roll the dice winter with the active sourhern jet.

Perhaps I am just greedy after the tri state area experienced 2 KU events this past winter.