EastonSN+

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

But you can never expect a KU event just because 2 analog winters happened to have one. If the sample were larger and say 9 out of 10 strong ninos had one I'd say maybe

Correct the sample size is extremely small. 

Just now, LibertyBell said:

You can't prove the statement you made either.  

I never said 15/16 or 82/83 was an anomaly.

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Right which were lucky. This year the luck didn't go our way (so far). 

Exactly! The data set is extremely small so it's ridiculous to state any 1 year is an anomaly.

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Also, I don't believe 97/98 is the proper analog for this winter, because that ENSO phase was "super" this will end up just being "strong" in all likelihood.  It puts it in a completely different category.

And even if it's "super" (which it likely won't be classified as that way), there are two other "supers" that were colder and snowier, which is what makes 1997-98 the anomaly.

Ok, let's say that this year does not become super, how is 33.33% an anomaly?

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

This winter? There was one moderate event and one minor event.  The moderate event dropped 4.2 here and the minor event dropped 2.0 here.  I don't know where the other two events came from.... I don't consider anything less than an inch as an event.

Correct 4 strong El ninos. 

Bad = 97/98 and 23/24

Ok = 82/83 and 15/16 

Difference? The ok years had KUs.

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I dont see anything to be happy about, I understand you got a lot more snow than the those of us down here though.

If this year was a central based moderate El nino then yes I would not be happy. 

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I mean it's an aberration because a strong el nino is expected to do better than what 97-98 did and there two other very strong ones did that a lot better, so that makes 1997-98 the aberration.

 

Lol there were 4 events. 2 bad 2 ok. That's 50%

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

I've always said this winter could be similar. Only difference is we had a week of winter in January and the March storm came a month early

Completely agree! Also, there are a couple of more chances at light snow events before we warm! 

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Because there are other el nino events that were stronger than this that had much more snow and were colder.

1982-83 and 2015-16

I consider 1997-98 an aberration.

 

There were 4 events and 2 were putrid, please explain why 97/98 is an aberration?

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

again I dont get this need to compare this to 97-98, as of now they are equally bad but no one besides you even cares about 97-98 lol

 

You KNOW that I am the only person? Why would you even write that?

Also, why is it not correct to compare strong El Nino events?

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

of course you can complain the last two winters have sucked

Comparing this to 97/98 is like saying I failed the test but at least I scored higher than the kid who also failed, but with a lower score.

 

Thing is you always play with fire when you have a strong El Nino. Also, you have to take into consideration the background state. 15/16 was in our 00/18 period. 97/98 was in our putrid 70/99 30 year period. I honestly exceeded what I expected going into this year.

If you want you can reference 82/83, but then you need to consider that this is the 4th strong El nino, so 50% chance at a one storm event bringing us to average snowfall?

• Very Strong: 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16.

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

if you look nationwide almost every station is below or well below average snowfall for the date....amazing bad on a national level.

Not really, the west coast, Tennessee and the MA are doing well, and that's good when comparing to 97/98. 

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

March will be warm and then April will probably suck 

Yup, that's why I worry about flipping to a warmer pattern for March.

Just now, Allsnow said:

MJO 5/6 is a torch for morch

Right, but that may mean 7,8,1 for April.

Just now, Allsnow said:

A early spring would be great 

Worry that we are entering warm MJO phases too early. I would much rather have a cold snowy March than a cold rainy April.

20 minutes ago, suzook said:

I'm guaranteeing a snow storm march 6th. Got an important flight that day into NY

By then we will be solidly in the warm phases of the MJO without blocking so would take an oddity to affect you.

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nyc snow hole aside it shows how hard it is to get 2 awful winters in a row. At least this one is just bad so far and I'd imagine places like Sussex and orange are at their seasonal average to date. Allentown is close

South of us too! DC and Baltimore are around average snowfall for this time of year and have a legit shot at reaching. It's Philly, CPK and oddly Boston in this year snow hole.

Even with poor measurement, CPK has more snowfall than the entirety of 97/98. They can still see a couple more inches before things fall apart around the 24th.

Just now, Dark Star said:

More than I expected with what looked like a relentless Pacific jet throwing heat into Canada...

Completely agree! Sure 15/16 and 82/83 were better, however avoiding 97/98 was great. 

We can't complain this year, we performed far better than 97/98 even if we have seen out last snow!!

Avoided first back to back sub 10 inch seasons in my lifetime. Sitting at 12.5.

DC has a real good shot at having an average snowfall winter!!

Still looks good through the 24th before we warm again. 

54 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Really hard to ever take the euro seriously again 

Go with the UKMET 

Just now, Rjay said:

Lol @ 3.2" 

I know complete joke. I can't trust records out of that place.

8 inches final at Easton CT.

8 inches final at Easton CT.