EastonSN+

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I don't see a reason to argue, the statement is some people have seen winters that were much colder and consistently so.  And it wasn't that long ago either.  The entire 2002-03 to 2004-05 period was much colder than this. As were 2008-09, 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15.  This winter is only cold compared to this decade not compared to previous decades.

 

I just responded to rjay, for these monthly forums we have a 30-year average established and we can have the true statistics for each month. We can create other channels where we can compare to past averages or past decades. Could be the memories forum or a new one. 

What is the value in saying it's below average statistically but heck I was colder in 2004. To me that's a memory.

20 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The argument seems to be "let's just forget about the past".

I always thought putting past averages in the memories section. Or perhaps a new forum relegated to comparing this time to times in our past. This way these monthly forums are focused on the current day and we have a channel to discuss how we are compared to decades of the past. 

Just now, psv88 said:

Some on here are older than 30, so they remember when winters were colder. Sorry if this is hard to grasp 

Why would you state sorry if this is hard to grasp. That's an insult and you know it. If you're older than 30 act like it.

34 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

we lived through months like january 2004. this was an average winter with below normal snow

Still a blow average temperature winter given our 30 or average.

21 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Only 39% of the winters in Don's stats were warmer than this one (61% were colder than this "cold" winter).

There seems to be an argument in some posts about where to place the threshold for whining about cold weather.  Whining is unhealthy.

It's cut and dry really, we have a 30-year average and it's either above or below that average. Done.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I think that’s probably since you are younger and haven’t experienced what cold winters were like here. But I can understand it since you are comparing it to all the record warmth we have had in the winters over the last decade. But there was nothing particularly cold about this winter except for the much stronger winds driving those wind chills. 

I lived through the '80s and 90s. It's a different time now and it's cold for this 30-year period.

Why do we care if it was colder in the past when determining if it's cold now?

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

It’s been a cold winter 

 

 

Yeah I'm extremely confused by posters saying that it's not really cold. The departures from average are very clear.

I wonder if we're plus two in the summer if the same posters are going to say it's not really warm.

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

you can use a variety of metrics like number of cold (below 32 degree highs).  The predominantly westerly wind is the reason, it's a downsloping wind so it's warmer here (we see this in the summer too when a westerly wind makes JFK hotter than the park.)

Also, we haven't had any lows in the single digits or lower-- this is an important component of our colder winters.

 

I guess what is cold or warm is ultimately determined by the individual. To me this is a cold winter to others maybe not so much guess there's no way to all agree on a measurement. Some may think it's hot cause we are probably+5 from 1812.

23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Just by the current warmer 30 year record and even by that standard JFK has been warmer than normal (just barely so within the envelop of average).  We've only had 9 officially *cold* days this winter too (days with a high of 32 or lower).

 

Doesn't matter it's still below average. JFK temperatures are suspect in my opinion they're way off the rest of the airports and Central Park.

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, I consider this an average winter too in terms of temperature, what makes it feel really cold is that wind.

 

How has this been an average winter when all three months are going to be below average temperature wise? 

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

What? An average cannot be calculated without looking at the past. This post makes no sense at all. 

My point was why compare a negative or positive departure calculated from a current 30 year average against a past 30-year average. Ie if it's a negative one departure for this month using the current 30 years baseline, why should we compare that to a PAST 30 year average from say 1970 to 1999? 

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Then there is no point keeping averages at all though, because averages are all about comparing to the past, even if it's the 10 years ago past.

 

Yeah but you want to know if it's above or below average right that's the whole star of the conversation. My point was taking an average from the past not taking the current average. 

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I have a better idea.  Let's use the 30 year average we are all used to, from the era we grew up in.  1951-80 or 1961-90 or both averaged out.

I just think if it's above average now or below average now that's all that matters whether we put in a 30-year average or a 50 or average or a 10 year average. Today, is it warmer or colder than average. I don't think there's a need to compare to the past as the environment is always changing through history and will continue to do so, so one inherently knows it's going to be different for various reasons. I know a colder than average temperature today is not going to be colder than average during the ice age, and likely would be way below average during the formation of the Earth. 

Can't live in the past man. The past is gone.

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Because a recent 10 year average would mask the warming even more since the base state is so much higher than it used to be. January was only considered cold here since we moved the goal posts to make it easier to get a colder month. If we left the original climo in place, then it would have been a warmer January in the Northeast.

 

Why do we care about whether or not we mask warming? I thought the purpose was just a show if a temperature is warmer or colder than an average temperature given a standard baseline in the current time frame we live in? Perhaps it's easier if the departures from average are given on three baselines of 10 years 30 years and 50 years at one Time to cover multiple generations? 

12 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Because the past we are speaking of is very recent and part of our experience for those of us pre Gen Z.

Maybe warming will go on forever (and maybe it won't), but the new "normals" aren't normal and they have a short history.

So then why not use a 50-year average as a baseline or 100 year average? 

I just don't get the point of continuously caveating that it was something different in the past as that is the past it does not affect the present. It's either warmer or colder compared to a certain baseline. If someone has to put in extra work to continue to say "but in the past this would have happened" then it's not efficient. If a 30-year baseline is not correct because someone has to keep caveating over and over again then something needs to change. Either change the baseline to be shorter like 10 years to be more relevant to the current time or expand the baseline so that someone doesn't have to continually say over and over again that it was different in the past. 

I just don't see the added value of caveating that it was different in the past than a current departure from average.

21 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i want out of this new climate. snow averages are tanking, cold snaps are windy and don't set records, summers are hot without hitting 100, the best we can hope for from convection is a flash flood blob, we get boring month long dry stretches and the irregular rainfall is horrible for gardening, we get blocking every april, etc etc

Just give it time if there's one constant in life it's change.

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

30 year temperature averages began to be used when we had a stable climate. So you could look at a departure and know whether it was actually warmer or colder. In a rapidly warming climate each 10 year update masks the warming process. This is why rankings make more sense. It takes larger and larger cold departures to get a top 10 or top 20 coldest month and a smaller positive departure for a top 10 or top 20 warmest month. 
It’s why the Northeast has had over 50 top 10 warmest months since 2010 and only 1 top 10 coldest. By just looking at the 1991-2020 departures you would miss this key distinction. So we should probably just use the 1951-1980 base period in order for the rankings to match the departures like NASA does.

 

 

Why not just post temperature departures against a 10-year average then? Just don't see the benefit of continually pointing out that a departure now is different than a departure then, as it's in the past.

29 minutes ago, North and West said:

I think it’s psychological and a wink wink thing, like, remember how it was before things went bad? Validating yourself with peers/others/people who judge you. (Note that I’m not denying the climate being warmer. This reminds me of juggling personalities at work; I have to allow people on levels below, even, and above me to pontificate throughout status meetings in order for them to be heard in front of colleagues to help move my projects along to reach my personal KPIs and bonus goals in the fiscal.)




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I just don't think it holds any value to caveat that it was colder in the past. For instance if a reader looked and saw that we are below average temperature wise I don't think they would say well I wonder if we would still be below average 200 years ago (exaggeration).

The 30-year averages take care of themselves as they adjust as the decades roll on so there's really no need to compare to the past which is just that the past.

It's kind of like saying well the Yankees won the world series this year with a great hitting team however this Yankee lineup is nowhere near the 1927 lineup. What's the point in stating it?

Just out of curiosity why do we always feel the need to say it was colder in the past over and over again?

This winter felt cold and had great snow retention regardless of what it was in 1980, 1920, or when the woolly mammoths walk the earth. 

I still believe the warmer ocean temps will lead to some pretty epic Winters to come snowfall wise and will help offset they cold dryness of the 1970s through 1980s. 

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Depends on cold air supply-will need below average temps for any frozen precip as normals rise into the upper 40's and low 50's.

We may have a shot when the mjo gets to phase 2 however not counting on it LOL.

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the question is was the pacific jet also very fast in those late 80s winters?

 

Yeah I don't know however whether it was or wasn't it was the exact same result of cutter suppression cutter suppression cutter suppression on and on LOL. 

What's incredible is in that frigid look in 1989 the one big storm we had ended up changing to rain LOL.

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

cold and dry December 1989 was very similar to this winter, only colder

Yeah it was colder because the trough was positioned directly over us and deeper and not as wide. This trough was broader. Check out the pack the ridge encompassed part of the West Coast where this year it was further west allowing more of the cold air to spill into the middle of the country.

Over under on NYC March snowfall? 1.5 inches?

29 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

My cousin lives in Raleigh. Looks like they got like half an inch or so. Def a year for them. 

I believe Raleigh's official measurement was 2 inches.

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the variability has become more extreme. Just look at the wild swings in the AO index. And that is just one area of the world. The new variation of getting a 970 mb cutter during a -5 -AO linking up with the Southeast Ridge was a new type of pattern variability. This variation has become more common during the 2020s. 

When the jet calms down I have a feeling we're going to get absolutely destroyed when one of these strong blocking episodes comes through. Seeing what's happening to the South shows that we are absolutely cold enough for a blockbuster winter, we just need that benchmark track back like you mentioned and when it happens boom the higher moisture in the atmosphere and obviously from the higher water temps we can see some historic storms. I think the warmer Gulf Waters may have led to the record snowfalls in New Orleans and Destin Florida..