EastonSN+

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

true but how often does the SE ridge work in our favor for a cold snowy pattern lately ?

Unfortunately we have moved back to a 1970 through 1999, particularly 85 through 95 pattern which was notoriously "cold and dry (congrats MA) warm and wet (big cutter)" year after year. Those years the SE ridge only flexed during cutters of course. It failed us and the MA cashed in (especially 87). So, we cannot expect it to help much now. That being said, like Bluewave stated, one could nudge north to hit us. 

A warmer climate may help us here.

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Looks good on paper - thats about all for now..

We need the SE ridge to flex. Feel good for Raleigh, Delmarva, Norfolk and perhaps DC through Philly.

Good pattern for something like this again but perhaps a bit further south.

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yes he does. More bombastic hype. If mid-late February fails, a lot of people have set themselves up to look really stupid and loose a whole lot of credibility

 

 

 

 

Yeah we need the SE ridge to flex a bit. 

However great opportunity for DC, Baltimore and maybe Philly to have an above average snowfall winter.

For the 14the again. Target date has not been pushed back so far. EPS the Middle ground for blocking.

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the 1990s had some of our warmest years on record though so I wouldn't say the warming slowed.... as a rolling average remember the 90s had to be very warm to reach that next peak in 1999.  The cooler period was from the 60s to the 80s.  As you'll note, we had much lower tropical activity and lower rainfall during this time period too, so this could be linked to the AMO.

 

Great point. 55 through 69 matches 2000 through 2018 in terms of snowfall. 75 through 85 were cold so that could account.

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The black line is the 9 year moving average. It first peaked at 34.9° in 1933. Then there was a higher peak of 36.3° in 1958. It took until 1999 to exceed that at 36.4°. We are currently at 38.5° which is a full 2° warmer than any previous peak. 

Thanks for this,

Is it known what slowed the warming from 1958 to 1999? Seems like an outlier. Population and pollution were increasing at a steady rate during this period (as well as natural warming). Population has increased since, however, so have measured to reduce emissions and other pollutants. Solar, volcanic activity, other? 

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Biggest snowfall in NYC following a 60° or above high:

February 8, 2017: 62°

February 9, 2017: 9.4" of snow

Thanks Don,

I wonder how much latitude offers increased opportunities for snowfall even in a warming climate. I.e., it's popular for someone to state "we have DC's 1980s climate". However, I find it hard to believe it's a one to one comparison (could be any city to the south). There is still a good pool of cold air left at the poles, so increased volatility, given our latitude, could allow for stable or increased average annual snowfall for a while. Also, I remember storms where the dew points were so low that we lost snowfall to delayed wet bulbing. The aforementioned storms of the past could result in much greater snowfall due to the higher moisture content. Volatility at our latitude could be the culprit for instances like you have posted. I believe Feb 2018 also had a great example.

From yesterday, however clearly shows blocking settings up 

Euro agrees.

Found this mornings GEFS MJO interesting.... finally phase 8 

Same date (14). GEFS has less Ridging out west/Alaska.

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Definitely not in a position to assert one way or the other but most of our really prolific setups had help from the Pacific. It also helps that the Atlantic warmed somewhat which added moisture to the big snow events we got. Now that the Pacific seems to have entered a -PDO, Nina-like long term state with practically boiling waters off Japan and Indonesia, it’s a lot less favorable for us and we see the West get continually dumped on with snow and cold. 

Thanks.

It's just amazing how much 2000 through 2018 mirrored 55 through 69 in snowfall, KU count and time period length. If you have the Northeast Snowstorm KU book they are so similar. The ocean temp anomolies during each period must have mirrored each other in location/configuration.

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Is this why we rarely get hit by thread the needles..... the midatlantic storms go south of here and the northeast storms go north of here.

 

We're not in the midatlantic and we're not in the northeast.

I know everyone hates it but that was the theme before 2000, warm and wet/cold and dry (basically January).

I mentioned before, I would really love for someone to do an analysis on why 55 through 69 and 2000 through 2018 were so snowy and had the majority of our KUs (as opposed to pre 1955 and 1970 through 1999). 

The obvious answer is we witnessed more blocking, and the mean trough was in the east rather than the west. However, would like to know what drove that setup. Water temps? Solar? 

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

we also have a major SSW to track!

Yeah it looks good on multiple fronts. We typically do better when we have some SE ridging. 

This looks like a scenario where DC, Baltimore and possibly Philly have above average snowfall. Especially if the GEFS is right. EPS is stronger in phase 8, hence the difference in the maps.

Still looks good and not pushed back. All three models are in basic alignment. I will try to post the 14th every day to track timing.

My gut feeling - just like the last round I believe the Middle Atlantic and possibly southeast will benefit the most. Just a hunch. We would benefit from a little more se ridging.

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Not really that great for urban areas though.  March 2015 was the last winter I would call really wintry here.  When March is your snowiest month it means that the winter has been really bad.

 

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Monthly anomalies are overrated. We just finished the month with above normal snow and temps and some of the deepest winter had in years. Jan 1-20 was non stop tracking

Taken from the MA forum - I feel good for them, they have had it really bad WRT snowfall for years. Hopefully they can cash in during the next period as well and end up solidly above normal.

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Last chance. Any pushback and it's a wrap. 

I mean, March 2015 and March/April 2018 were historic, March 2017 was solid and March 2019 was great for the northern half of the sub forum, so even if it's pushed back 2 weeks it can still produce.

EPS, GEPS and GEFS all are in alignment (save minor nuances). 

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 15-16 winter was the real outlier for Decembers with a T or less of snow in NYC since 1950.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	Seasonal  Snowfall
	2011	0.0	7.4
-	2006	0.0	12.4
	2023	T	2.3…so far
-	2022	T	2.3
-	2018	T	20.5
-	2015	T	32.8
-	2001	T	3.5
-	1999	T	16.3
-	1997	T	5.5
-	1996	T	10.0
-	1994	T	11.8
-	1972	T	2.8
-	1971	T	22.9
-	1965	T	21.4
-	1953	T	15.8

Seems like the inverse of March from a decadal perspective.

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We did much better in March during the 2010s than the 2020s so far.

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Mar	Season
Mean	0.1	0.1
2023	0.1	0.1
2022	0.4	0.4
2021	T	T
2020	T	T

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Mar	Season
Mean	6.0	6.0
2019	10.4	10.4
2018	11.6	11.6
2017	9.7	9.7
2016	0.9	0.9
2015	18.6	18.6
2014	0.1	0.1
2013	7.3	7.3
2012	0.0	0.0
2011	1.0	1.0
2010	T	T

March is an odd Month statistically. 2000s seemed to rarely snow in March while the 90s and 2010s seemed fairly snowy.

There is your MJO phases 8, 1, 2 (again same as we saw earlier).

Also AO going negative.

On a side note, we have obviously brought back the coastal hugger. Now, we have a clipper!! Both typical storms before 2000.

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

This winter was always going to be a 97-98 repeat or a one off storm type year like 83 or 2016. So far minus the cold week in January it's behaving more like 98. That's why I'm not shocked or complaining and have no control over it anyway

Completely agree.

Also, Don mentioned in the beginning of the season "the elephant in the room", referring and listing 97/98.

This has been 97/98 with an added cold shot that lasted approx 1.5 weeks. 

It's not over yet and we will likely get another week or so of favorable conditions, but who knows if we will get anything or the MA will get it again. Good for them.