EastonSN+

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The upcoming week:

Thanks as always Don. 

Not trying to pull you into a discussion, so please feel free to ignore, however I am keenly interested in the thought that the southeast ridge never linked UP with the nao since we have been monitoring the h5 pattern. Was this cataloged so we can check? Not trying to argue with Blue Wave I would just love to have statistical evidence because that is a major development if true. I would think that any intense storm cutting to the West in the development stage of blocking where the southeast ridge is present could link the two at any point but I could be wrong.

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Central Park was undermeasuring back then too, both JFK and LGA got 20 inches in the Lindsey storm.

I honestly think they over measured as much as they under measured to be honest. Especially going way back.

Week 4 of the CFS so outside it's reliability range of 3 weeks. However the blocking lasts through week 3, then we have this colder look. Then it looks like we mild up for spring!

Looks pretty good hopefully not dry. Would like the PNA to be a bit further west with the strength of that block.

23 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

No shortage of precip in the forecast, also more rains for So Cal

 

Great news for California!

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Philadelphia and Boston both have a higher probability of 4" than NYC does

Yeah we don't like it when the blocking is that strong.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Another case of a -4 or lower -AO linking up with the Southeast Ridge which didn’t happen before 2020.

 

 

Not trying to argue however do we have definitive evidence that this never ever occurred before? Recorded times that is. When did we start observing h5 and the weather community? 

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

NYC:

Feb 9, 1969 : 15.3 inches of snowfall

Feb 9, 2017 : 9.4 inches of snowfall.  (62 record high the 8th)

Both in the two epic snowfall periods.

17 minutes ago, wdrag said:

This thread will continue as posted as I responded to complaints and incorporated multiple probable snow accumulators of some sort for NYC, Tue night(2-5), Wednesday evening (1" or less), and Saturday evening-possibly into Monday morning the 17th (large multi hazard event?).  This was done to limit threads for clicking back and forth.  This particular thread will probably be extended through the 16th or early 17th, in the late afternoon pre Super Bowl update, pending review of the 12z ensembles.  This is your week.  Have tried to keep this simple but you have to admit to being thrilled with snow action and an unusual train of wintry threats. 

 I'll separate out the OBS threads for each of the next 3 wintry events. 

Also Next Monday we'll add up the total melted qpf which has a very good chance to be 3" in at least a fairly large portion of our NYC sub forum, between the 6th-16th. Already as of this morning is widespread 0.5-1.2". 

The 11.5 inches that the ensemble mean was showing for Central Park before the last storm is in reach. Pretty good job by the ensembles if this pans out.

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

back to back 3-5 inch events would be nice to see

Winters of yore.

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Classic screw zone for us. SNE got yesterday, although many underperformed, and Mid-Atlantic gets Tuesday. 

However given the trends north with yesterday's system I'd say there's still a shot things trend in that direction with this.

More than half of this board did well with this event.

The crazy snow mean on the ensembles for Central Park was approximately 11.5 for the 360 hours. So far two storms down in Central Park has about 4.2 inches. That snow mean may come to fruition. Just 7.3 to go to meet it.

7 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

SI NYC got 2" of concrete, and now it's freezing rain with a temp of 32. Sad is what this is, and the past 7-10 winters have been even worse, so the beat goes on, lol..

Sent from my SM-A155M using Tapatalk
 

SI didn't do good in 2022, 2021, 2018?

Got another half inch overnight.

4.0 Easton CT.

12.75 on the year.

Got another half inch overnight.

4.0 Easton CT.

12.75 on the year.

3.5 Easton CT. 

12.25 on the year .

Going to sleep.

3.5 Easton CT. 

12.25 on the year .

Going to sleep. 

Lol it's like pulling teeth getting Central Park above 10 inches.

Bronx should be changing over now according to dual pol.

Just now, hooralph said:

Changed over to sleet on UWS at 9:45. I know because I went out for a short Jebwalk and was delighted to find it was still fluffy flakes. Within five minutes it was pinging on my hood.

 

I measured 2.5” on benches before the change over.

Thanks for measuring hopefully the official measurement does not come in at 1 inch lol.

Should be some very heavy sleet for the city in the next band.

Hopefully we hear the Central Park measurement soon. I think Central Park is close to the 10-inch Mark for the season if I'm not mistaken.

Bronx should still be snow

Nam busted for this one.

Manhattan should be sleeting right now or mixed with sleep per the dual pol radar