EastonSN+

Actually liking this weekend for a light to moderate thump more than the 20th (closer and no suppression risk).

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

LOL I raised this topic a dozen times in the subform looking for anybody to opine. You are the only one to acknowledge that it was ever spoken like it was some kind of voodoo, or the answer is too dangerous for us to know. 

I keep saying the Indian Ocean is rising in temperatures so we should see an increase in phases 1 and 2 which in the heart of Winter are very cold phases. This is likely why January was so frigid because it was a high amplitude phase 1 and phase 2. That's Indian ocean temperatures. 

That being said we thought the Indonesian high water temps would lead to a semi-permanent 456 phases however that has not been the case at all this winter.

 

@LibertyBell lol still waiting.

The 6z Euro snowfall map has been posted in New England forum in case anyone's interested. Has one inch in Central Park. Eastern Long Island on a North shore gets 2 inches. CT shoreline is three to five. Westchester county approximate two to four.

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heights over western N/A are the challenge.  This situation leading and during the 20th needs that component to improve, otherwise this will be another modeling challenge over the week with both spatial-temporal aspect, and just spacial synoptic interference issues. 

It's a bit frustrating because from what I am seeing, the basal hemisphere is a little less compressed ( less is definitely better! ).  You can see in the 00z 500 mb height cinema of all three, Euro/CMC/GFS, how the SPV fragment really tries to tuck into the S/stream, but because the flow geometry lacks that meridian restoring ( better ridge west --> constructive depth feedback in the east), the situation ends up stretched looking with the triggered cyclone escaping ENE in the CMC/GFS.  The only real difference between the Euro and these misses is the Euro actually gets the thread through the needle's eye on 00z stab.  

But again ... the flow overall is -d(gradient), and so if a ridge were to materialize over the west, that whole downstream situation would be slower/more proficiency compared to these bottle rocket smear troughs of the last month

Good analysis from Tip.

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don't forget the warming Indian Ocean.  I've seen it mentioned here and there (usually shortened to IO).

LOL I raised this topic a dozen times in the subform looking for anybody to opine. You are the only one to acknowledge that it was ever spoken like it was some kind of voodoo, or the answer is too dangerous for us to know. 

I keep saying the Indian Ocean is rising in temperatures so we should see an increase in phases 1 and 2 which in the heart of Winter are very cold phases. This is likely why January was so frigid because it was a high amplitude phase 1 and phase 2. That's Indian ocean temperatures. 

That being said we thought the Indonesian high water temps would lead to a semi-permanent 456 phases however that has not been the case at all this winter.

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's a reflection of a proximal location on the north shore of Long Island that does really well in snowfall too.  Mt Sinai and New Haven are both local hot spots for snowfall.  They fit together like two pieces of a puzzle, did you notice how the northernmost part of the central CT shoreline matches the northernmost part of the central part of the north shore of Long Island? They were part of the same landmass before the last ice age.

I actually envy Long Island during the big coastals as the northerly wind in northeasterly wind cause snowfall to be a little more intense due to the sound. 

6 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is very amplified. what a look

btw, that isn’t a SE ridge linking with the -NAO… those are height rises downstream from the amping vort

To any/all in the subforum. Don't want to keep breaching this topic, however, just need any explanation from anyone on what the differences are between this depiction where the SE ridge is NOT linking to the NAO compared to the instances BlueWave pointed out where it is. 

What do I look out for to tell the difference?

Maybe Bluewave and Brooklyn agree on an independent 3rd party meteorologist to provide an opinion. Such opinion would be binding in the absence of manifest error.

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Still no change at all IMO. Next week is either a hit or suppressed/OTS

Completely agree when you run the animation on the op runs you see the confluence rotating down from the Northeast right as a storm approaches. Have to hope that's a bit weaker in the storm a bit more ampt.

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It occurred to me that you moved to the jackpot area of the March 1888 Blizzard, Chris,

Just a couple years too late LOL. I believe that was a good spot for 1978 as well and of course Nemo. Three of the best storms in history for that area. They did pretty good in that bust of a storm in 2015 was over a foot there.

18 minutes ago, wdrag said:

NO new thread for a wintry event 2/19-22 til late Thursday - 2/13 at the earliest  or until ensembles come together again. Too chancy on a miss

I am usually positive thinking however not feeling good on 2/19 to 2/22. The confluence is strong. 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe there is a difference with an east facing beach vs a south facing beach in SWFE (a southwest flow is land based when the ocean is to your east, but comes off the ocean when the ocean is to your south.)

 

Barrier island so water east south and west. 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, some of these storms from the 80s sound very familiar.  note-- the amounts were slightly higher back then (colder)?

 

WINTER OF 1984-85

Feb. 5, 1985 - The biggest snow of the winter began this evening and continued through next morning, accumulating 5.7".  3.3" of the snow fell tonight.  This came three days after a snowfall of 4.3".  After this snow just 0.2" fell for the rest of the winter.

 

WINTER OF 1985-86

Feb. 11, 1986 - The second 4.5" snowfall in the past four days occurred today and occurred between daybreak and noontime.  These two small snowstorms accounted for most of the winter's thirteen inches of snow (half of the typical amount).

Thanks for these. Always hard to tell if would be that different today.

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The gradient is different with each storm.

For SWFE it's north of here

For suppressed systems it's south of here

 

This area does not benefit from gradient patterns because these kinds of tracks don't give significant snowfalls in this area.

Add to that for coastal areas being near the ocean makes it even worse for SWFE

I think there's two points being discussed. The storm track is the issue where it's cold and dry warm and wet 1980s style. 

There is another point about it being too warm suddenly which I think is where the debate is lying where some are saying we're losing out on gradient storms because it's getting warmer but yet people are seeing snowfall on the beaches of the Gulf of Mexico. I am not saying this myself but some may be saying if we are suddenly too warm on a gradient why isn't New Orleans or Washington DC too warm for a gradient. 

I think as Blue Wave mentioned we have a current fast flow which favors weak waves to the South and amped up waves to the lakes which would explain what's going on the best. This will change at some point hopefully soon and we'll get storms like we used to but who knows how long we have to wait.

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

inland regions are less susceptible to gradient patterns aren't they?

 

That's not the case Ocean City Maryland got destroyed this year. Literally pictures of snow accumulation on the beach. 

43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think it's smart to cut amounts in half.

 

Yep and if Central Park gets 2 in Saturday then it would have outperformed 50% of the output which is good for an ensemble mean.

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Still too high but better than some of the OP GFS runs.

 

Yeah I never pay attention to op snowfall output as we have seen so many times especially on the GFS.

Too high but not outrageous. If we get that 2 Saturday that's 7.5, only 4 inches low on the mean not bad for a long range snowfall output imo.

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Too much of a cold bias in our area for the EPS snow mean in early February as the mixing line usually verifies further north with gradient patterns.

 

In reality if Central Park gets 2 inches this weekend they will be at 7.5. that's not horrible compared to the ensemble. The gefs at 11.5 this has 12 but that's only a half inch difference. 

Nobody would have cared if it ended up at 15.5.

Just now, eduggs said:

You are aware that the GEFS is run every 6 hours right? And therefore the mean total snowfall at 10:1 also changes every 6 hours...

My point was the largest snowfall output on the ensembles was 11.5 for Central Park. 

2 hours ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

Ensembles had over 30” for this week didn’t pan out that way

Ensembles had 11.5 for a Central Park and they ended up with 5.5 so far. The 360 hours from that ensemble run includes this coming up weekend so if Central Park gets another 2 inches will be at 7.5 which is not far from what the ensembles were showing of 11.5. 

So not that far off from the ensembles. 

The problem was a couple of op runs were insane.

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Bluewave @DonSutherland1 Seeing a lot of hype on Twitter about the MJO going into phase 1 at the tail end of this month and how that supports a very cold and snowy east. Am I missing something? Here is the composite for MJO phase 1/-ENSO/February:
 

Is that La Nina?

Also the ensembles agree on a trough.

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Next week should be our best shot with the favorable MJO and teleconnections ( should )

If we can get a storm then we'll have snow retention for at least 2 weeks as it gets really cold afterwards.

38 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Doesn’t lack of sea ice in late summer tend to cause more blocking in winter or at least it’s believed to more often than not? 

I have heard that negative AO favors the Mid-Atlantic while a negative nao favors the Northeast. This would explain why in this episode the Middle Atlantic scores are not us. The nao barely goes negative while the AO is strongly negative and of course the Middle Atlantic got the storm.

Just now, LibertyBell said:

but a very sharp cut off just to our south.  I remember being jealous of Boston because they got all the snow early in the season while we just had ice.  Our turn came in February.

 

And that's the difference that was the polar vortex to our North which is completely different than this year which is blocking based. New England has had a warm winter as opposed to that year where it was frigid for them.

This is AO driven not nao. 

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

mother nature remembers.....

whatever caused it then is still there and will cause it again

 

What's hilarious is that this is not a negative EPO it's a positive PNA but yet the trough is in the same spot lol.