EastonSN+

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks for posting that.

 Will it get the dip right this time? It busted with those runs having it very weak around 2/10-15. So far this month the weakest has been down only to 19 m/s.

Also a rather quick rebound. @40/70 Benchmark may be able to opine on the effects.

Fairly significant dip coming up.

End of the EPS run which fits nicely into the phase 6 look.

MJO is taking too long to get to phase 7. If it takes 5 more days to reach 7, with a 5 day lag (guessing here) we are talking the 13th before we flip colder. Really late in the game for the MA.

The ICON FWIW 

6z GFS was solid. ICON looked like it was going to improve over 0Z.

Of the operational runs, only the EURO showed nothing. 

Either we all hail EURO in the end or all other models end up closer to correct.

Still a lot of time of course.

3 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

i’m fine with spring warmth. 40s feel like heaven here after that cold snap. obviously can’t really say i am done with snow here though because march can be quite wintery here in the great lakes. 

I would rather get the cold phases out of the way in Feb and March so we can get warmth in April for a change. Spring has been awful here.

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not saying it can’t happen, but the models have been awful with showing the MJO propagating into phase 8 since late November only to have it fail. I guess all we can do is wait and see if it holds and is real this time 

It did get to phase 8 twice, although for a couple days each. That being said, both phase7 periods ended up snowy for the NE.

What I am curious about is the large snowstorm the GFS, EURO AI and now the ICON are showing. The only favorable telecommunications are the RNA coupled with the negative AO, which is only SLIGHTLY negative. I would think this would lead to an inside track. Could the FAST flow be helpful here in pushthe storm east before it can gain too much latitude?

29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest AO forecast is even more aggressive with the development of an AO+:

Given the other forecast teleconnections, this implies that the late February cold shot will likely be short-lived. Temperatures could return to near normal or above normal levels in the Great Lakes Region and Northeast in the closing days of the month.

Thanks Don.

Its far out there however the members are starting to drop at the end. This would align with the MJO heading to phase 7 and the dip in the zonal winds posted above.

This COULD make for a wild 2nd week of March.

Pretty solid dip forming EOM. Not sure what the lag time is but could align with the 2nd week of March?

Towards the end of the EPS run a LITTLE blocking looks like its forming by Greenland. This will likely be the key for as Don mentioned, an RNA is beneficial after mid Feb. with blocking.

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Warm pattern setting up for the 1st week of March.. strong ensemble signal for long range

The 2nd week of March SHOULD be a little interesting, although today's MJO forecast looks like its going into the COD. 

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

.2” 

55 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

If anyone has S/SW CT totals from this let me know

0.1 here in Easton.

AO looks to be slightly negative during this window. 

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

BTW the 00Z UKMET also had a hit for that 23rd system at the end of the run. 

Really hope GFS, ukmet and EURO AI are correct. EURO and CMC are a CNE/NNE special. Would be great for at least 90% of this forum to make out well.

Can't wait for CPK measurement.

21 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

your/you're is another one

Their really getting to you lol. Can you take it?

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

why is there such a strong correlation with climate change denial and not using central park's correct identifying letters 

Lol maybe they know your lurking and want to mess with you.

AO

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

Anthony absolutely did but at least he’s not denying it. And he’s absolutely right about it being forecasted (several times in fact). Here’s one of several ext-EPS runs forecasting a 30+ straight day phase 8: this one (12/3 ext-EPS run) had it at 32 days (12/3-1/3) and on top of that showing no sign of it ending on 1/3 thus being a great example of why the models should be taken with a grain for the MJO and in general

GEFS is far more accurate regarding the MJO.

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

You raise important questions.

The shift in the predominant storm tracks that you observed may be the result of an ongoing structural shift in storm tracks rather than periodic cycles. Many factors are involved, including cyclical ones, but there is at least some evidence that Arctic amplification is contributing.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/10/jcli-d-16-0650.1.xml

I still suspect that by the mid-2030s, we'll have a lot more answers related to regional snowfall, etc.

 

Completely agree. I have been actively comparing 2020 onwards to 1970 through 1999 and until now we are actually ahead of 1970 through 1976 for snowfall and above average snowfall winters.

Also that period had 4 above average snowfall winters in 30 years, which was pretty bad living through it like I did (80s onwards).

I distinctly remember the patterns were cold dry/warm wet for the majority of the winters (outside of the furnaces of the late 80s/early and lat 90s and the cold and dry early and mid 80s). So far outside of 2020/2021 we have seen either the furnace or cold and dry with the same overall storm track of the 1970 through 1990s. 

The similarities between 1955 and 1969 and 2000 through 2018 are also incredible.

So like you stated, given that the last snowfall drought was a whopping 30 years we will need to wait until the mid 1930s to see if we have fared worse that that period. I would also like to leave the door open for INCREASED snowfall if the waters around the MJO phase 8 region also warm and allow for better storm tracks/increased warmth leading to larger snowstorms and less suppression. 

Some positive observations are:

Still getting snow to the gulf

Still getting benchmark storm tracks

Still getting late season snow (May a couple of years ago)

Still getting multiple below average temperature winter months

The return of the clipper.

The return of non-se ridge linking NAOs

The hindrance of continuous phass 3 through 6 due to warm water pac waters

The recent negatives are lower benchmark tracks and general increased global temps.

Will be interesting to say the least.

Even if CPK were to go snowless the remainder of the winter, this decade would still be ahead of the first 6 winters of the 1970s wrt average annual snow totals and number of above average snowfall winters. 

We will have one last window the 2nd week of March.

Last window still looking like the 2nd week of March