EastonSN+

7 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Finally finished the SNE snowfall to date map. This thing is a bear to do. If you guys like it i'll keep doing them throughout the winter, otherwise i might just do it at the end of the season. The CT one only takes about an hour to do but this one took about 5 hours. The vast majority is finding and verifying reports on here, cocorahs, climo sites, etc.. There was a little smoothing i had to do with the isonifs, but if there is any additional reports or corrections i will add them. Thanks!

I used the reports for contours obviously but also the gridded snowfall analysis from nohrsc as a guide https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snowfall/

 

Thanks for all that you do/have done!

What is insane is once again BDR is beating me for snowfall again. Only at 4.5 in Easton CT.

GREAT job this morning!!

This is what I enjoy, intelligent discussions which can lead to new ideas/hypothesis.

A lot of posters/readers have benefited.

28 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Olr maps have the p7 wave weakening then convection development in p1 

Yup I posted the plots before. Same exact progression.

Like train tracks.....we wait for phase 1.

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No, we had filtered sunshine while it was snowing and the roads and driveways and cartops and rooftops were just wet at 31 degrees.

We just live in a highly urbanized area, it's different for the north shore and for Central NJ.

Gotcha. Here on the CT coast the first two storms had more to do with poor radar returns than warmth. 

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It snowed here on the south shore, but it didn't stick, which was an interesting experience.  Areas north of us got more snow too, it just sucks to be near the ocean.

 

The last storm didn't stick there? It was in the 20s and it stuck to the jersey shore.

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

this is the result of the oceans warming the most.

so the outcome of all this is more humid summers, milder winters at the coast and more rainfall all year round

 

We would have been in the purple too, like central Jersey, if the last storm gained latitude.

Track hurt us.

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Just looking at snowfall to date the strip of purple to blue at the immediate coast from Boston all the way to DC is pretty crazy. I hadn’t realized the Cape & CT coast are pretty much in the same position as the immediate NYC metro. Shows how the warmth is a problem all the way to Boston along the immediate coast, though them doing a touch better is of course expected.

Really hoping something works out in Feb. 

It has more to do with track than warmth. The last storm was cold enough everywhere, however it stayed south.

40 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Not a snow look 

Still a better year than 97/98 lol.

The MJO is doing exactly what it did in December. Unfortunately we may be looking at 2nd half of month or a bit later. Not ideal.

12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I think the question now is will Central Park record a total snowfall of under 10 inches for the season?. Never had 2 seasons in a row in recorded history under 10 inches - came close in 96 -97 , 97-98 - right now IMO 50-50 chance of that happening as the rest of January - very litttle snowfall and February doesn't look promising.........

monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf (weather.gov)

Also shows how timing/luck plays in. If the last storm was a little farther north, the first storm intensified a little earlier/deeper. 

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Man if we don't have that system to track on the 30th ... This forum will be the worst we have ever seen heading into February looking at the 11-15 lol .. EPS isn't as bad but just an epic torch with no end in sight on GEFS and GEPS

I know the MJO isn't everything, however we seem to be mirroring the last wave. Not sure when we will be back in 1/2 however we will likely have another colder spell. Maybe DC scores again!

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Correct!

Here is the infamous December 1989 outbreak. This is where we get the cold records that places like KC had this outbreak. 

 

The funniest part is we STILL could not stop a storm from turning to rain with that look lol.

56 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The trajectory doesn’t favor coldest anomalies over us….

 

 

Correct!

Here is the infamous December 1989 outbreak. This is where we get the cold records that places like KC had this outbreak. 

Curiously comparing this decade to the 1980s in terms of average annual snowfall.

1980s = 19.74. Above average snowfall year count = 0. 

2020s = 19.6 (excluding this year of course). Above average snowfall winter count = 1. 

Bluewave mentioned volatility uptick in recent decades. So perhaps our snowfall remains on par, although distributed differently.

Just now, LibertyBell said:

89-90 too, if you want to look for bad winters where DC did better.

65-66 which some used as an analog had 40" down by Norfolk VA while NYC saw half of that

 

Thanks! I am surprised they did better on 89/90, that winter was an absolute furnace outside of December (I remember one storm here that turned to ice after being like 10 degrees before the storm lol).

I wonder when the last time DC had more snowfall than CPK? Was it really 09/10?

50 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Expected. 

We wait till phase 1.

You can see how this is following the last wave. With the western IO temps expect another wave in phase 1. 

6 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

 

This leads to what I was referring to before. The western IO water temps will once again have wave amplification in Phase 1 (see the MJO plot). Will be similar to what we just had in terms of MJO, albeit perhaps without the blocking.

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it'd hard to call them futile with 77-78, 93-94 and 95-96 in there

Eh, 5 above average snowfall winters in 30 years is real rough.

This century Central Park had 13 above average snowfall winters in 23 years, or 56.52%. Huge contrast unfortunately. 

Just now, Allsnow said:

Backloaded Nino winter calls in serious trouble 

I mean strong Ninos typically have one period, we just failed to take advantage like 82/83 and 15/16.

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This winter so far is more evidence that there seem to have been two pattern shifts to our winters starting with the 15-16 super El Niño. The first shift is that all our winters since then have been warmer to record warmer. So this winter will mark a record breaking 9 consecutive warmer winters. The beginning of the warmer period from 15-16 to 17-18 still was producing record snowfall within the 09-10 to 17-18 window. Then around 18-19 we started to see a decline in snowfall to a lower baseline than before 2010-2018. The common denominator seems to be a more amplified MJO 4-7 pattern and a stronger ridge near the Northeast. It will be interesting to see if we can at least change up the snowfall equation and sneak in another year like 20-21 over the next few winters.

I think we will see good winters sprinkled in. 

Looking at 70 through 99 as a benchmark for futility, CPK only had 5 above average snowfall winters in 30 years, or 16.67%. So far from 18/19 onwards, excluding this winter, CPK has 1 above average winter in 5 years, or 20%.

We should see more amplitude in phases 1 and 2 given the rapidly rising western IO temps, which will help offset 4 through 7.

Phases 3 and 8 will likely be reduced. 

We may have better luck than 70 through 90 as "suppression" may be offset by the SE ridge. 90 through 99 perhaps not. 

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am thinking the varying model solutions are due to the MJO forecast to go into phase 7 near the start of February. Phase 7 is much better for us in January than February during an El Niño. The models with a stronger -EPO +PNA have more of a phase 7 look for January. The phase 7 composite in February has more of a ridge across the CONUS. Both the extended EPS and GEFS slow the MJO down in 7 in early February. My guess due to the record SSTs near the Dateline. 
 

 

Shouldn't we re-emerge in phase 1 again like the last wave? Check those ocean temps off Africa in phases 1 and 2.