EastonSN+

Still on track timing wise. Weaker than earlier phases but still there and high enough of an amplitude to cause downstream effects, although muted.

The setup of 94 was completely different than this year.

14/15 was great too and colder. I had 20.5 IMBY

That ended up being the most snowfall in my lifetime from March 1st onwards with 27 inches (almost a full season average). However, even 25% of the impact is a massive win. Will be interesting as it would align with phases 8,1 and 2.

Weakening but still there and on target for late February.

It's definitely going to get hit, hoping some semblance of the wave survives to affect our weather. That being said I still don't understand why phase one and two are not discussed more often. The rapidly rising Western Indian ocean temperatures should facilitate much stronger wave activity in phases 1 and 2 which are also colder phases. Also would explain why the deep South had a great winter and we had less precipitation which phase eight usually provides. The focus seems to be solely on lessening effects of phase 8 and greater effects of phases four five and six, which should not be the case when phases 1 and 2 should increase as well.

Progression still on track for phase 8 in mid-February with a lag effect of the last week of February. It's definitely weakening however should still have an effect.

Believe it may have been five

Or March

I believe perhaps a clear definition of buckle up should be provided by the said Twitter blogger.

I technically was a four to six right?

GFS tends to outperform the euro from an mjo projection perspective.

Technically won't help in June it's too warm by then.

No it was an El nino. On a side note I often wonder why so much attention is paid to the warmer Waters around Indonesia in Northern Australia and not the Western Indian Ocean. The Western Indian Ocean supports phases one and two which are cold.

Agreed, however the wave started at a decent amplitude therefore should have some effects in phase 8, albeit weakened. Phase one, which includes the Western Indian Ocean, should not be affected as it wasn't in December. All the focus has been on the waters around Indonesia in Northern Australia however not enough attention has been paid to the Western Indian Ocean which is also increasing in temperature fast. Phases one and two are colder phases. There have been a number of late seasons snowfalls in La Nina's over the years, excluding epic snowy winters like 95/96. I wonder if anybody has done a deep dive into the trigger mechanisms for the late season snowfalls in those La Nina's, which could perhaps provide insight into the potential moving forward. Don's statistics show, from a snowfall perspective at a point in time, which of course do include both La niñas and El ninos. However with the changing weather over the years what may have been detrimental to late season snowfalls in the past may actually work in our favor now or in the future (i.e. warmer western Indian Ocean temps).

The wave is weakening as it heads toward phase 8, however still has decent amplitude. With the lag still looking at the last week of February.

To provide additional granularity. So years where it snowed in Atlanta, the results ended up as provided by Don.

LOL LOL. Allow me to clarify my statement. If it's a red tagger, Blue Wave or Don that are currently on this board it's a trustworthy source as they would provide evidence and not state such a claim. If it's a Twitter person that is not a current poster, I would be leery.

Seriously? Which one?

Thanks Don, the ATL statistics are astounding.

Unless a red tagger States buckle up, I would ignore posters that state that. A red tagger would provide statistics and evidence as well as analogues to suggest that we are entering a favorable period, however disclaim that such a scenario does not guarantee snowfall. If a poster just writes buckle up it looks good, and a reader falls for it, it's on that reader for believing such a claim without evidence.

1000%. It's astounding that's some members announce the end of winter as if they could predict the future. I do not mind if a red tagger which state it, as they would provide statistics to prove such a claim. Also why you do not see it from them. It's best to ignore posters who State such a claim and are not red taggers. Likely it's due to frustration or just trying to get a laugh out of the audience. Even Blue Wave, who has been stating that we are about to encounter a Southeast ridge, has in no way stated winter is over and we cannot get more snowfall. Sometimes people interpret it that way, IE warmer can't snow, however Blue Wave is just stating the next h5 setup that we will endure.

What sometimes occurs is the wave will weaken and become ineffective, or as they say go into the cod. However looking at the snip I provided originally, while weakening, the wave looks to have enough amplitude to have a downstream effect. On a side note, Don mentioned that shorter wavelengths, starting mid-February, can counter the effects of an RNA (the driver of the dreaded southeast ridge). Last year there was a lot of discussion about the warm Waters around Indonesia and north of Australia causing a perpetual phase four five six. However this year the warm Waters seem to have little effect on the mjo, not sure entirely why however this year we got into phase 1 with a good amplitude which we could not do last year. Perhaps the waters there are starting to cool or water in other locations are rising therefore allowing for the wave to continue.

To help avoid confusion the below aligns with the wave progression of the previous snip.

There's another way to get to a good snowfall setup without an sswe. If we can get the mjo to phase 8 which it's moving in that direction, we do not need the aforementioned sswe. Also as we know the volatility that is associated with late February and March can lead to bowling ball Lows which can take a favorable track and have high intensity. Not saying it's definite, or predicting/calling for a snowy period, however, the wave is definitely heading toward phase 8 and that is a colder phase. So I believe the right call at this point in time is that it is unlikely to have an sswe, however, we are likely heading toward a colder phase of the mjo and therefore we may have another 2 to 4 week period which is conducive to snowfall. Just like we can't definitely say we're heading toward a snowy period, we cannot definitively say that we are going to torch and the Southeast ridge is going to rule, and for some reason the mjo is just going to fall flat and not continue moving to phase eight (intensity can fluctuate wherever it'll still move there). Unless there is some research to the contrary, I am happy to take a look (i.e. analogs matching the current setup, mjo inclusive, which state 75% of the time in the current conditions we had zero snowfall and above normal temps through March).