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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    Wow
  2. EastonSN+
    Didn't we have a negative NAO last February with record snowfalls?
  3. EastonSN+
    Would take 08/09 in a heartbeat
  4. EastonSN+
    The CMC and GFS are world's apart right now. CMC crushes NNE through 240. I define NNE as VT NH and ME. I would take the average of the 2.
  5. EastonSN+
    2 snowstorms for the MA on the gfs. Rooting for them.
  6. EastonSN+
    AO, NAO, PNA and MJO all heading in right direction this morning.
  7. EastonSN+
    My guess is it will but short duration and lower amplitude. I would rather loop in 7 then fly through 8.
  8. EastonSN+
    I will take extended phase 7 all day. Cooler temps and minor snow events.
  9. EastonSN+
    GEPS looked the best to me with ridging out west in the extended. GEFS decent look but more of a central ridge. Do not have eps past day 10 but similar to GEFS. Would think the GEFS and EPS would be somewhat dry with smaller events. GEPS would be a great time.
  10. EastonSN+
    Good news for us as phase 7 is decent for smaller events. Will be interesting to see how long this stays in 8 if at all.
  11. EastonSN+
    Love the fact that accums are down to central Jersey. Buffer for SNE.
  12. EastonSN+
    Phase 7 is cooler than average in the Northeast. Coldest centered in the northern plains.
  13. EastonSN+
    https://justinweather.com/2021/12/14/death-of-long-range-weather-models/
  14. EastonSN+
    Hope the NAO is a little more west based this year. Don't think there was a lot is snow in SNE 70/71 but could be wrong.
  15. EastonSN+
    I am guessing the only thing that would be a concern is lack of precipitation/dry? Otherwise that's a great blocking setup.
  16. EastonSN+
    All the tells are heading in a good direction this morning. The only somewhat negative would be the delay in getting the MJO to 8. Keeps getting pushed back day after day. It's not showing a stall in 7 then drop to COD, but rather higher amplitude and slower. That could be GREAT as 7 is good and IF IF IF it gets into 8 at a close Amplitude AND that slow, could be a really good winter.
  17. EastonSN+
    Actually getting amped for the depicted upcoming pattern. May not produce KUs but can easily produce light to moderate if not heavy. Hopefully it pans out. Still can't believe I have only experienced 6 below Average snowfall winters this century! Maybe it's why I am optimistic. Blocking is always good to have.
  18. EastonSN+
    Long duration type events like December 1995 or Feb 1994 can happen. Generally west to east strung out but long duration with 6 to 12 amounts.
  19. EastonSN+
    Only halts on EC not GEFS. Better to look at the EC ensembles.
  20. EastonSN+
    Thanks Don! Even the smaller snowfalls would be welcome. Would imagine as the blocking broke down in those cases larger events occurred (NAO rise)? That may have led to the Feb. 69 blizzard.
  21. EastonSN+
    Thanks again for the above. The ensembles seem to have the NAO further north than the above, and the RNA a little more east/onshore. Perhaps this will lead to more precip? In any case it's exciting to see a pattern not experienced since 69! February 69 had one of the best blizzards of all time, perhaps as the blocking relaxes we experience something similar.
  22. EastonSN+
    Are there any similar looks in the past to compare the upcoming patter to? I can't remember such a set-up.
  23. EastonSN+
    I feel like March has surpassed December as a legitimate snowfall month.
  24. EastonSN+
    I am curious how the tri-state does in such a set-up. There must be a huge gradient between central Jersey, long island up to 84.
  25. EastonSN+
    Great storm. Actually got 6 all the way down to the coast in Norwalk.
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