EastonSN+

I still think we get our snow chances once the NAO relaxes and allows a few cutters to get the colder air east. This would allow for weaker trailing waves to produce. The NAO is hurting us here. Hey if we can snow in Feb 2018 when it was 70 the day before......

I look at it as a positive. The current setup is shredding all incoming storms. Let the AO NAO go positive to cutters can pull down cold air from west coast, allowing for weaker trailing waves to give us snow.

If u want to peg a snowless analog I think 01/02 would be closer as 11/12 was WAYYYYYYYY warmer for the entire continent. Completely different setup. This does bring up a point about snowfall though. Even though 01/02 was much colder than 11/12, I received only 4.5 inches of snow in 01/02 vs 11.5 in 11/12. Goes to show that a warm winter can be snowier than a colder one! One could argue that if we did not have the negative NAO we would have more snow by now, even if we had more 60 degree days as stronger cutters would not get shredded and weaker follow up waves can bring us snow like 2012. This year everything is shredded. In the end losing either the RNA or negative NAO will yield better snowfall results.

I would take 08/09 in a heartbeat. Above average snowfall winter but icy

Yeah I am on same page wrt snowfall and pattern progression, however to me in a La Nina following a potential snowless December this brings optimism to me.

As Anthony mentioned phase 7 in Jan is colder than December, therefore rather than looping to 5 and kissing January goodbye as well. They can make snow in phase 7. Also my query was pointed at the outlook, I was not asking why people are upset about what has already happened in December.

Why are a lot of people down on the MJO. Extended phase 7 in a La Nina is good news.

Yeah I would. 4.5 inches for the season was rough in 01/02 but worth it for 02/03

I feel like central Jersey northward March is a snowier month than December.

Yeah 8 is the money phase, but we can reach average annual snowfall if we keep hitting 7 with a predominantly negative NAO/AO. I think the biggest issue is lack of precipitation/larger storms. 2001/2002 may have had the same problem. Give me 20 inches of overrunning/swfe/"washed away by rain" snowfall by March 1st and I will take my chances in a Nina March any day.

As long as it keeps hitting 7 we will score.

That good?

We really need to get the MJO to 8 with this consistent RNA.

Get that ridge a little more east on the west coast and it's a perfect match.

Agreed he has not said anything incorrect, however would like to see him step up and and provide an opinion on the upcoming pattern change. I respect people who stick their neck out and provide forecasts/opinions (forecast). I asked him his opinion on the upcoming change will see if he responds.

Thanks Walt! Although the low floor is depressing to see.

I think you are right and know what you are talking about, however just want to know your thoughts about the pattern moving forward into January.

I don't see why we can't get overrunning/changeover events with that look. Storm passes pulls down cool air they next storm comes and we get couple inches before changeover.

Do you think that the upcoming pattern with negative AO NAO PNA EPO can produce, or can the RNA overpower the other indices and lock us in a similar NNE only type pattern for snowfall?

Congrats NNE!

I look at is as we need to score in the 2 to 4 weeks tht the AO is negative and rely on March (always good in Nina). I honestly believe we have a decent shot at an average snowfall winter.

1971 would be a good outcome relatively speaking.

Thanks This is an earlier shot of the EPS. Understand that the core of the cold is definitely west, however wouldn't we have enough cool air for front end overrunning situations even at this timeframe? I feel like 1992/93 had a lot of 1 to 3 inch storms (changeover to rain events) with almost a coast to coast trough. I may be wrong but I feel like the below could produce in the same way, especially central and northern areas of this forum.

This is VERY close to something decent.