EastonSN+

A little close for comfort IMBY (Coastal CT).

Has that EPO look, but this looks has a neg AO (of course 13/14 had a pos AO)

This does feel a lot like 12/13.

We usually score when the block begins to fade.

I am technically in SW CT but yeah will be tough with the temp profile. On the bright side my TWC app has me getting 1 to 3 with a low of 29. Would be a big win.

Li gets some fun on CMC

Below -4 possible people!

Thanks Bluewave, It must be extremely rare to reach a -4 AO and not receive a single snow event before it collapses.

Shocked how low 17/18 is showing. I mean even if you factor in the normal under reporting.

I am pretty confident of a 6 to 12 storm before we go all RNA. I think the wave that is showing up sooner, currently modeled as rain, will end up being more south and a potential hit.

The potential is definitely there.

What's hilarious is after our window we mild up for the holidays.

Right here, PNA turning to RNA to help push a storm into our area with blocking in place and colder air in place. May miss south or east, but this is our window.

Definitely rolls to an RNA, but I am definitely seeing a good window for an 8 to 12 type event before then. The way the GEFS rolls it looks nice in the transition.

Dollars to donuts we get a hecs during the 17th to 22nd period then we RNA for a bit.

Don or Bluewave are better places to opine on that. I think Bluewave mentioned that 10/11 was -4. Block was better placed position wise that December.

That 18th through 22nd time period is oooozing with potential. Colder air in place and rising AO/NAO from historic levels. That December 12 thing to me is noise.

Yeah this is really looking close to December 2012.

Leaving the mini ice age and heading to another medieval warm period :()

FWIW the storm track on the CMC and GFS are VERY close. Whether mostly rain or not we shall see.

That cutter around the 16th is what really drops that AO.

Potentially breaching -4!!

Ha. That model flips more than pancakes. I would welcome some energy savings (and agree to a 2002/2003 repeat next year)!

I dont think the last 10 years were that noticable. I lived in Coastal CT my whole life, and although it feels like falls and December are much warmer, less snowy, I feel that March and April have gotten snowier. Heck we just had a trace of snow in May 3 years ago. Now, my grandfather told of a time when they drove on part of Long island sound due to parts of it being frozen, so yes if you go back 100 years there is a definite change. Warming and cooling is cyclical, and we are still emerging from the last mini ice age. Good link here. Quote below. https://www.britannica.com/science/Little-Ice-Age "Today some scientists use it to distinguish only the period 1500–1850, when mountain glaciers expanded to their greatest extent, but the phrase is more commonly applied to the broader period 1300–1850. The Little Ice Age followed the Medieval Warming Period (roughly 900–1300 CE) and preceded the present period of warming that began in the late 19th and early 20th centuries."