EastonSN+

What about those of us on the forum that did?

Yeah meant 89/90 not 87/88, my bad. Problem here is if Eastern areas including central LI raked in 12/13, then half the board had an above average winter. So you can't outright exclude cause half didn't. For instance, in 15/16 my area only had average snowfall, so is 15/16 an average snowfall winter for this forum? Half the forum had above average snowfall. 02/03 same thing. Had 4 inches here on the coast. A very good portion of the board had November snow so we cannot outright exclude for the board. So, in my back yard which is on the coast, half have been good to great and half have been bad to terrible. The sample size is so small that really nobody truly knows. I get that weather patterns change and it could be "wasted" too early or too late, but sometimes weather patterns dominant for many months straight like 95/96, 02/03, 13/14 (yes I consider this a front to end winter, although we got shut out in March it was frigid and the storms just missed to the south. Not like we flipped out of a pattern). Maybe we say November snow is a detriment for only half the board and not bad for the eastern half? So it's really a longitude thing? Not trying to be argumentive, it's just that I do not live inland so it's not a north and west thing.

Cold and snowy Decembers will happen again. I mean we had a big snowstorm in 2020. It's just cyclical patterns. We are in a crappy period like the late 90s and pretty much every year from 1970 through 1992 save a couple years like 77/78.

I think 91/92 was a back ended too. 97/98 we didn't get our first and only snow till mid March :() . So I guess a back ender? That's all the additional ones I can think of. On the bright side it's weather and ironically unpredictable. So does not look great but who knows.

GEFS had a few more LPs closer to the coast over 6z.

FWIW the GEFS had a few more LPs closer to the coast than 6z.

One of those examples that show how we can still reach average snowfall in a very short period (also helps that that was an El Nino) Always in play for a monster

Thanks for this. Was so close for the City. Was living in Norwalk CT (coastal CT) and received a little over 4 inches. I mistakenly thought Central Park reached an inch.

Bad luck and timing. Could have had 2 good events if things timed right. Instead this one interrupts the next.

Was a good pattern, however as ORH wxman pointed out we were unlucky. He is a professional and value his opinion. So it was not a bad pattern, just one that didn't produce. At the opposite end is Feb 2018. We had EXTREME warmth yet had a 4.5 inch snow event. Was that a good snow pattern? Hit 60 plus multiple days Luck and timing.

Yup

I keep forgetting that one! One thing that drives me insane is when people say November snowstorms equal bad snowfall winters. 12/13, 02/03, 95/96 were all above average snowfall winters with November snowstorms. 18/19, 11/12 (October) and 87/88 we're below average. Seems equal to me.

Yeah but we did have a snow event in December 2012. Was minor like this years but I think Central Park had at least an inch in 12 where while we scored this year here in coastal CT (1.5 so far), Central Park had been skunked.

MJO phase 7 and 8? CFS weeklies flip us to a trough Jan 11. Probably following the MJO

On a positive note, Phases 7 and 8 incoming?

Thanks, 08/09 caught my attention as NYC stayed under 30. Over here was 42, amazing what a difference a short distance makes.

Another great post by ORH wxman. I feel like we were due to miss on a good pattern. This century until 18/19 we seemed to hit on EVERY pattern. Hell, only 7 below average snowfall seasons in 21 years.

Outside of 14/15 where central park waited till mid January, does anyone know the last time Central Park didn't have a measurable snowfall till January and still ended up above average snowfall?

Yup only 1 above average snowfall winter starting 18/19. Thank goodness for 20/21 (great season).

Yeah we need another atmospheric shakeup like the 15/16 super El Nino to break this up. 3 below average snowfall winters since that year (18/19, 19/20, 21/22 and potentially this year).

Ha yeah. I feel like we are in the late 90s again. 5 below average snowfall seasons in 6 years. Extremely warm with one absolute ratter.

I hope the warmth is joined by dry weather so we all can enjoy the outdoors. Nothing worse than 55 and drizzle.

Yeah I don't think there are many out there denying that it's getting warmer.

I look at it as it's a real small sample size. The boom from 00 through 18 ended with 18/19 for which we have seen 3 below average snowfall seasons in 4 years. Even if this year ends way below normal it would not compare to the futility of 96/97 through 01/02 where we only had 1 above average snowfall winter in 6 years! You may be correct, but it may be for the reasons we had in the late 90s, or the 70s or 80s.

It's just the CFS weeklies, however may be somewhat correct given the MJO plots.