EastonSN+

Pretty bad stretch of winters starting with 18/19 with only 20/21 with above average snowfall. However we have been through this before (87/88 through 91/92, 96/97 through 01/02, pretty much the 30 year period from 1970 through 2000 with the exception of 77/78, 93/94 and 95/96). We will have another great stretch of winters again like the 1960s and this century, I just hope it's not another terrible 30 year stretch like before!

Yeah, also I think they put great weight into specific reporting stations like Bridgeport which reported a ridiculous 15 inches (official report from Fairfield next town over was also 27). Darien, Wilton, Westport, Norwalk and Fairfield all reported 22 plus yet the 15 by Bridgeport must have really pulled it down.

I think they weigh area coverage much higher than top amount of snow. 1993 and 1996 were extremely vast in area affected. 2016 was definitely right up there just a little less.

I always hated their method for creating these. For instance, SW CT had 27 for the blizzard of 96 yet they have us at 10 to 20. I actually saved the newspaper from it!

Baltimore Washington area but this is an article clip from the Blizzard of 1983 "After the storm, warmer weather moved into the area and the high temperature reached 52 degrees in Washington on February 15. For the next seven days, the high temperature was in the 50s or low 60s every day. The snow melted quickly and ten days after the storm, the only reminder that Washington had experienced a historic blizzard was the monstrous snow piles remaining in area parking lots."

I am still sticking to No Forky No storm (now I have Marley in my head).

Same 50% for GFS

If this was even close would have half the forum elated and half pretty miffed

Plus the December and March ones for 2013.

Yeah, we seem to be following the 89/90 playbook with missing a golden opportunity (pattern) in December followed by warmth That being said, 89/90 is ahead of us snow wise. The wild card, none of the mentioned winters had severe blocking in December and as others have said is likely to return, so there can be a window at some point.

I have a hard time believing there are people who do not actually believe we are warming. I think the argument these days is 100% human influence, 100% cyclical or (what I believe) a blend of the two. I think it's a fact that greenhouse gasses, urban development etc warms our atmosphere. I think it's a fact that the planet goes through multi century cycles, and we are still emerging from the cold one that ended in the mid 1800s. The combination of the two is warming us at a historic clip.

If one is a fan of warm winters, the AO looks like it's going neutral to positive, PNA going negative and the MJO may be heading out of the colder phases past mid month. Unlike this warm spell which has been cloudy and rainy more often than not, the above setup could be a bit dryer, warmer. We shall see. As others alluded to, blocking tends to return when presenting itself I'm December. Therefore, snow lovers may still have a window later on. Perhaps this February will be like Feb 2021, or this March like 2018 or 2019, even January of last year. In the meantime, enjoy the energy savings and outdoor activities!

More Middle Atlantic of course, but the Delmarva, including Ocean City Maryland, had a historic year for snowfall last year. Odd how that works (mild a lack of snow for us results in snow to out south).

If this is a legit threat, Forky will opine soon.

Not fighting on this one but my point was more to show that in a la Nina the northern stream dominates, so we get more "cutters" due to that fact. Was just using an extreme example to show what can happen when the southern stream dominates.

That's funny, for February 2010 I was rain for most of the storm only getting 8 at the very end. Not a top 20 for me.

This is a much better map from NWS

22 to30 inches from SW CT to Yonkers. 30 plus central LI It was a HECS for 50% of this forum.

No I think there is still a possibility. Positives are retracting jet and southern stream influence.

I know it was discussed that the MJO is not having much of an influence, and these charts are noisy and not too accurate, but they are heading into colder phases.

2013. This winter being la Nina, the northern low would dominant and we are warm-sectored. Obviously we know in 2013 the southern low took over and history is made.

Do you have 1916? Curious as BDR had back to back days of 65.

One thing I have noticed on the models, where coastals eventually turn into cutters, is that the northern stream energy this year seems to always take over/become stronger. For instance, overnight runs look more cutterish not due to the storm suddenly becoming a cutter, but rather the northern low strengthens, dominates the southern low and therefore we end up on the warm sector as opposed to when the southern low strengthens, moves to our east and brings in cooler air. I believe in Nina's the northern stream tends to dominate, which has been what we have been seeing all winter. Now that we are looking at a Nino type flow, perhaps we can get the southern stream low to dominate. An extreme example of a southern low dominating would be Nemo in Feb 2013. Northern low cuts into Canada but the southern stream low strengthens and takes over. GFS. Northern stream now prominent with little surface reflection of the southern stream low.

Up to 63!