EastonSN+

I know I know Op. Run long range. Not saying this image will happen but just using for illustration purposes only! This ends up sliding off the southeast coast BUT the PNA is starting to drop which should pump up SE ride and help get something like this to us.

I feel like we have to wait until the PNA starts to go negative to get our next big snow event. We do well when PNA starts to fall (pattern change storm).

Agreed. Will be fun to see if it's a record trough again or something manageable. Personally I think we do fine in Feb. And great in March. We shall see, part of the fun!

What are your thoughts on February/March? You nailed the last storm and would like to get your opinion (believe the board as well).

I guess all in all February will hinge on whether or not we repeat record RNA vs. Typical RNA. Plus if the RNA returns what's to say the current pattern does not come back as well. Will be fun to watch unfold.

Maybe it will be negative 1 instead of record levels this time and in February. Then we have snowfall opportunities. A lot up in the air but would think we avoid record RNA levels again.

100% agree BUT what are the chances it's that deep again? December was almost if not record levels.

Thanks Don! Actually getting excited about February and March!

Yup. This IS a repeat of December which is good as.... 1.) Highly unlikely we go recorded RNA twice in one season 2.) As Don and Snowgoose alluded to RNA is less hostile in February (2nd half). Also this may mean that the January look returns in March!

Bet it works out better for us this go around snowfall wise!

COMPLETELY AGREE. Low over the lakes bothers me. Way more concerned about cutting.

Also that's a negative AO. Bowling balls cutting underneath! That look to me is tasty.

Good! Better than cold and dry with that look we can get overrunning snows!

Yup, and the RNA in Feb can actually lead to a favorable snow pattern for us. I can see us col and dry this month and multiple overrunning events in February.

Yeah this is why I am not looking at the return of the RNA in Feb as the end to a good stretch. To me it will have little negative affect to our snow chances as compared to now.

I do agree. Example would be February 2018 where all the Teles we're against snowfall and we had a 4 to 8 inch snow event. Just looking at the teles would say we had no shot at snow. Dont fear the MJO phase 5!

Thanks Don. Curious if there are stats on February's with an RNA negative AO combo (basically a subdued December repeat). Like you said the larger events are probably heavily skewed towards end of the month.

Thanks, however if the trough is less historic than December and the NAO is negative again wouldn't that beat down the SE ridge and allow for overrunning?

Our key to a successful February

Interesting looking at the teles. Looks to be heading to the Same December look of.... RNA -AO -NAO Now we failed in December because the RNA was at historic levels AND the NAO was very negative causing a meat grinder compression effect. Now what are the chances we get another HISTORIC RNA? I honestly feel like if the RNA is at a respectable -1 and the NAO is negative again we can actually score a decent amount of snow, especially in February. Also the MJO is going to be at a much lower amplitude as opposed to December which must have an affect. What is also very heartening is that timing wise we should be back at 8 for March (in a La Nina), which could lead to a grand finale. Being 100% honest, I feel pretty good for the chances of our area reaching annual average snowfall. Gonna go out on a limb and make my first forecast... January is somewhat disappointing, however we get the famous pattern change storm of a general 8 to 14. February surprises with 2 to 3 overrunning changeover storms due to the -NAO RNA combo. Approx. 5 to 10 inches for the area combined for Feb. March starts warm and we believe an early spring may occur. However due to phase 8 la Nina March a similar setup as 2019 occurs. 2 storms within a week. One 1 to 3 and the other 4 to 8. We end the season at or just below average for snowfall. What can go wrong? 1. We break all records and get another historic RNA 2. The currently modeled -NAO is positive. 3. MJO goes into the COD in liu of 8 in March. What can go right and we eclipse average? 1. We get multiple events in the next 2 weeks. 2. The February -NAO outweighs the weak RNA and we get large overrunning events. 3. We get March/April 2018 or 2015.

Can't this be a good thing though? I thought our area does well with a negative PNA in February.

I will be EXTREMELY PO'D if after all this all I get is a power outage to deal with.

Snowfall distro looks same as last snowstorm on GFS next system.

Hoping to reach 1 inch here in SW CT of snow sleet mix. Just want to pad the stats.

To add to my last post, not saying we get shut out in Feb. As long as we keep the RNA at say -1.