Jump to content

EastonSN+

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    9,108

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    Really? I mean we have had some absolute furnaces the past 50 years.
  2. EastonSN+
    Yeah all we had was the early December storm which was 0.5 to 3 depending on location.
  3. EastonSN+
  4. EastonSN+
    I held off on it. My dad who's going on 82 experienced many of these duds in the past refused to get his snow thrower ready back in November cause he had a feeling. Amazing.
  5. EastonSN+
    At least 2011 already had the Halloween snowstorm.
  6. EastonSN+
    Sitting at 1.5 here. Record low for snowfall was 3.5 in 97/98.
  7. EastonSN+
    We do have a window to score something at the end of the month. Can't express how much this winter feels like 97/98 did (if that late March fluke did not happen CPK would have already experienced a shut out).
  8. EastonSN+
    Yup. It's a shock to the system for people who were not around for periods like this from 1970 through 1999. Regression to the mean is painful!
  9. EastonSN+
    To be fair, December WAS a good pattern (la Ninas are typically front loaded). The first storm did give snow to half the forum The second storm was wayyyy too intense and squashed our true potential which was the 3rd storm. From 2000 through 2018 all the luck was on our side, we were just due to strike out on a fastball down the middle.
  10. EastonSN+
    This may be a shot from the ECMWF. Maybe our friend SE ridge can flex and give us a light event?
  11. EastonSN+
    Yeah BUT la Ninas do typically do that. One thing I am keeping my eye on is this MJO wave. High amplitude phases 2 and 3 in a la Nina below.
  12. EastonSN+
    I know it's a long range clown map, however would be fitting for a la Nina (cutter/SE slider)
  13. EastonSN+
    We can score with that look. Cutters are a risk but not a shut out look.
  14. EastonSN+
    Right, however why can't we get a weak follow up wave to provide some snow? In December the bomb was so intense the follow up wave had no chance and was squashed. If this cutter is weaker than we can score a follow up light to moderate event. Of course this is looking down the road without players on the field, however I do not think it's a shut out look.
  15. EastonSN+
    All winter, as is typical in a la Nina, the northern stream low has taken over and has been dominant which is what really hurt December. Just using as an example see below, IF IF we can somehow get the southern low to dominate if just once....if the pattern is not broken in the below image the low over Michigan will strengthen. I HOPE this changes.
  16. EastonSN+
    I am on the SW coast and just want to avoid my lowest snowfall total of 3.5 in 97/98. At 1.5 now so a tall task in this winter.
  17. EastonSN+
    The last part of winter will likely come down to whether or not blocking returns given the strong blocking in December. Still nothing on the horizon.
  18. EastonSN+
    You have been spot on all winter, but hope you are wrong.
  19. EastonSN+
    Maybe, however I am looking at it as getting CPK a half an inch of snow. This is the best chance since December and probably not again until March. I think a half inch at CPK is definitely doable. The good thing about these setups are the multiple waves, which increases the chance for confluence. Just need one to strengthen as it moves east with a WEAK follow up wave. Not looking for 93/94, just half an inch for CPK.
  20. EastonSN+
    It is definitely looking like an overrunning, boundary setup coming up. As always with these, will depend on which side we are on. Will be a sharp cutoff, and may be right through our region (of course latitude will help a ton). Here is the GFS just for example purposes.
  21. EastonSN+
    EOW has had all the luck past 10 years (save Feb 2021 and Jan 2016 and Jan 2014 and Feb 2013). We need to revert back to pre 2012!
  22. EastonSN+
    I may be way off on this, but I always thought the general rule of thumb is la Ninas are December and March for favorable snowfall outcomes, while El Ninos are Jan and Feb. Therefore, since Jan and Feb are peak for snowfall, El Ninos will out-snow la Ninas (that and an active southern jet brings more moisture with an El Nino). This winter, we have seen the northern jet and northern low pressures dominate, including December.
  23. EastonSN+
    Just looking at all the modeling. Nothing shows it coming much further west.
  24. EastonSN+
    Yeah, just looking at the teleconections and MJO lag gives us a small window of Neg. AO, Pos. PNA and MJO in favorable phases (with lag). After that, if the teleconections are to be believed, looking at RNA, Positive AO and warm MJO phases. Nobody knows how long that will last, but this year is a la Nina and so far la Nina results snowfall wise. Febs are usually warm.
  25. EastonSN+
    It looks like we have a small window over next 10 days or so to get CPK some snow. Looks dicey after that. March is always a threat so it may end up like 97/98.
×
×
  • Create New...