Rd9108

Ukie a little north I'm hoping it's just an over correction. Still gives the metro on north a huge thump but it cant bump north anymore. I'm hoping with sampling models are just overcorrecting. Euro cant come north anymore. 

Only hope and I mean the only hope is these models are off by a bit. Let's be honest they can only do so much when it comes to little details and in this situation 50 miles, 1 hour slower, 1 hour faster, quicker transfer. Any of these small factors can change us from cold rain to heavy snow like that. I'm definitely pessimistic and I'm leaning 80% rain/mix but I can see how the models bust in our favor. They aren't perfect and even the storm last week didnt have DC getting the 12 inches they got. 

We have lost the UK it seems. Oh well it was fun tracking. Until the next storm. Maybe we will get our storm this year. The kiss of death was whenever the media was hyping this up over a week out. 

The low does something weird on the gfs it maybe right but I cant see a low doing what it did. Come one euro and UK youre our only hope. 

If we lose the UKie I'm throwing in the towel. 

Just now, buckeye said:

that can also work against us.... stronger storm has a stronger wtod...plus a stronger storm is more likely to gain more latitude.

I think he means like if the storm is weaker say 1000 instead of 996 it wont the push the r/s line as far north. 

Yeah this is the real snowfall and it's awful. I've been saying Youngstown special and it's looking like more and more I'm gonna be right. 

2 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Makes it to southern Franklin and licking. That's it.

Pittsburgh weenies have nightmares that aren't worse than that...

3 minutes ago, dj3 said:

Wouldn’t give up yet. Nothing has really changed the gfs has always sucked 

Wait the NAM isnt that bad either huh. 

Well you guys stole another storm from us. Enjoy it and dont take it for granted. I've grown tired of this terrible hobby. I have been happy once in my time tracking over these past 9 years. 

12 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

That gfs run might be one of the most brutal runs I’ve seen. Entire state almost gets warning level snow except the sw corner.

Its who we are. We just suck for good snows. Although some 5-8 hit would be nice from time to time. I tried to act positive even when the euro came south but this has a screw job written all over it. YOU WIN AGAIN WTOD! Rant over. I havent been around for the 0z models but from a quick glance most look bad. 

Actually as usual it depends what site you use it seems. It looks like agh county is the cut off point on some sites. 

NAM is 100% just a quick thump of 8-12 and is done. No changeover even in the southern portions of our sub forum. 

Euro Ensembles look pretty awesome. I would post them but I dont feel like it. Less solutions that screw us are showing up now. 

I can show the gfs from last week to show how big it was with last weeks storm. It had us in 4-8 range all the way up late Thursday runs. This is so close that it I think we may have a now casting situation. Its gonna be hard watching that mix line pushing north. 

Euro doesnt back down. I'd rather have it in my corner than the gfs. 

I'd love to see the euro come further south just a little. 

Well shit not the trends I wanted to see. I have basically given up on seeing significant snow with this system. 

2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

MSLP just seems to far S and E to rain for us. The cold air behind this thing is insane . 

I think the surface would in actuality be better but it's good to see it come back south east for now. 

1 minute ago, Mailman said:

Well.. GFS seems to be a slight improvement.

Not a bad thing. We dont need crazy trends just slow corrections back south. Uk is apparently decent and possibly the CMC. 

Icon brings primary further north. Not great but it is a terrible model. 

NAM looks like it would be in the UK camp. 

This the only reason I'm optimistic. I got it from usawx forum. This was the gfs before this past weekends storm. It was a little too far north. How did that work out? Let's be honest it's a different set up and usually we dont do well in these storm tracks but until the snow is falling we can still get a good trend.

2 minutes ago, dj3 said:

We’ve got the deep thunder and icon on our side so all hope is not lost

UK Met. There were positive changes on the gfs and euro at 500. Also the NAM looks like it would be in the UK camp. 

Euro was actually better at 500 but didnt show at surface was but less ridging in the west will allow this to be flatter.