Rd9108

Well boys we just tracked another rain storm. Good job everybody. 

3k looks good but let's be honest we aren't seeing the 6-8 they predicted. 

RGEM came far south. Still screws us but it's way south. I'm stepping away until the euro later. 

Just now, meatwad said:

I believe that's the RPM if I'm not mistaken. 

NAM jumps the low pressure all over the place. Maybe it's right especially with having the RPM in its camp. I remain very skeptical though. 

11 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

I believe cranky posted something about how the NAM's were being tossed today...but who cares...

Cranky is not a real met. Not saying hes wrong because some NWS branches did mention it. 

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I dare you to post that in the MA thread....then sit back a

I'm on it. 

This is so close to my area. This is about the closest to a now casting event I have seen. Pitt could get all rain or a foot. Goodluck to your area, this has our board on pins and needles. 

My thoughts. Yes it bumped north but the 12z runs have been doing that everyday. Hopefully the NAM stays where it's at or bumps south and we can have some wiggle room. We just know the history of our area and how the warm air surge is usually under modeled. 

3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

KPIT still won't raise warnings cause they know their changing over to rain so I feel sorry for the Pitt crew!

No you dont. What screws us helps you guys. 

1 minute ago, dj3 said:

Rgem drives the low up to the west of pit.

Always overamped but I still think the city on south mixes unfortunately. 

Just now, dj3 said:

I thought the mix line stayed south of the city. Usually if we are in the pinkish purple that will be counted on the snowfall map but I didn’t notice any sleet from the city north. Doesn’t mean it will necessarily fall that way though 

Yeah that's what I'm saying. Just looking at the mix line and the temps it stays all snow. Unfortunately the warm tongue often likes to punch higher than the models show. 

Just now, BigBen89 said:

Based on the latest NAM run, and the 3k NAM run, I'd say a lot of this shown is sleet. I feel we're in for a big let down.

Are we looking at the same NAM???

3k totals. So close. Gonna be rough watching the mix line.

Pretty consistent but man is it too close for comfort. 

Just now, MikeB_01 said:

UKie is a little shift to the south and east. Positive movement

That's all I needed to hear before I fell asleep. 

Idt it can possibly get better than the 3k NAM in this set up.

3k is weenie porn for us  

RPM also colder and snow. Sampling makes a difference. That's a huge shift by the NAM

One more tick north and we are ****ed. 

Looks like it's just converging onto the general idea of ****ing us. Oh well, we should be used to it by now. 

1 minute ago, stjbeautifulday said:

So what’s the next storm in the pipeline? 

This one. 

Just now, dj3 said:

We don’t even get much precip haha 

The question is, is it too amped. If it is then we are in a good spot. 

Nam is even worse.