Rd9108

Euro just showed a monster storm for east long island and New England. This is looking good as far as the models finally catching on to a pattern change. I can imagine the gfs will start to catch on soon and we will start having atleast white storms to track. WAKE UP ITS COMING!!!!!

Possible light at the end of the tunnel for atleast maybe salvaging the end of January. 

Yikes you know it's bad whenever JB who usually hypes up cold as much as possible is getting worried. Honestly one big blizzard would wipe away a horrible winter but right now its hard enough to get snowflakes in the air. It's just funny because everytime in the long range i does look promising. Then everytime we get closer it just gets progressively worse. 

I dont even want to use the banter section, but this winter is off to a terrible start. There's supposed to be a polar vortex split but who knows if it even splits the right way. It's still early but I'd rather have a snowy December than a snowy March. 

Looking at the short range models we will as atleast have flakes flying in the air tomorrow. Maybe a coating on the ground but it doesnt look like much. 

Not looking good for a white christmas on the NAM. Oh well, I'm sure it will be showing in late April. 

55 minutes ago, north pgh said:

OZ Nam moves 2nd storm east and gives us practically nothing. 

 

Saw that. Hopefully it's just a blip and we get a different solution tomorrow. Is an inch on Christmas too much to ask?

I'd say the fact that the gefs shows this that we may see some snow Christmas eve morning.

I'm thinking the NAM will be wrong. It has the changeover faster and the band further west. HRRR has more so the mountains to the east receiving that same band. I will say that we have a decent shot at atleast having snow on the ground for christmas. 

NAMs back to showing backend snow and a decent amount. Let's see if there's any precip once the temps crash. 

28 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said:

NWS doesn't seem to be buying any of it right now. Just slight chances of snow showers.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 

Yet look at the gefs, nam, cmc and somewhat the euro and it shows atleast a possible coating. 

So now the long range nam, cmc, para gfs all show a possible small event just in time for christmas. Euro is still there but too warm. 

Latest euro shows a glimmer of hope of having a white christmas. I gotta work on Christmas so this would at least help brighten my mood. 

Yet the Euro shows possible snow on christmas. So nothing is set it stone yet. 

24 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

The sky caved at about the 20k foot level this afternoon with one heck of a cirrus storm ongoing. 

Hate to miss a big one like that but I’m pretty encouraged with the pattern so far this winter if we can keep the charged up southern jet. 

With the 10.5” storm in mid November I’m sitting at 13.5” total for the season so far.. can’t complain about that. 

It's easier when it's more than 50 miles away. It sucks whenever returns dissipate as soon as it hits your county line. 

Nice big cutter showing up for the next real threat. We know that wont move east. 

4 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

It’s going to be heartbreaking to see the radar come game time to know that we were so close but yet so far.

Try having that happen with every big storm. 

Looking good for you guys. I'm hoping if we can't get a noticeable shift north that this stays down your way. We've been fringed way too many times up my way. 

I believe this one is over for us. Hopefully we get some good chances down the road. 

1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

Volly

Ah nice I just got on the job for my city. Back on topic I'm rooting for the north trend but I dont think this helps my area. Central and southeast PA seem to be in a good spot though. 

Just now, sauss06 said:

i had to look twice as well. 

I'm planning on a snow storm, buying beer and snacks. However i won't go as far as gassing up the snow blower, we all know thats trouble. 

 

see above 

Are you a volunteer or paid firefighter? Off topic but just had to ask. 

I'm tracking this one of course but I just find it hard to believe we see suppression too this extent in December. At this point I'd rather NC get hammered if we get another fringe job. Still plenty of time in model land for big changes. This is definitely not over yet. 

Oooooo Canada

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

This next storm potential has had a strong signal pretty much right off the bat as it got into the D8-10 range. Very clear to me that at least so far in this early season the southern stream is a major factor in our sensible weather pattern. Given the source region I would expect this potential system to be a moisture laden one. I think the problem currently on the models is the storm pattern is being progged as progressive. The western ridge isn't anchored and progresses east as the next trough and system impacts the west coast. So I think amplification and northward progression will be limited at least some... but there's plenty of time for this to trend back north. This may be a system with a sharp cutoff and that may fall in this region somewhere.

The Agh county border will be the sharp cut off. That's usually how these things play out. 

Yay another storm to track!!!! It has heartbreak written all over it.