Rd9108

Warm tongue showing up on the ensembles=death for us. Once it shows up it never goes away. That was the 6z ensembles so let's see what the 12z does today. 

Looks right to me. 

Euro has interesting outcome for the next storm. A cutoff low just sliding underneath us and even heading south east. Results in this

I bet the ensembles will have some good hits. 

Well atleast the most of the models predicted this correctly. There is also atleast signs of cold on the gfs. 

Just now, CoraopolisWx said:

What radar do you use ?

Radar scope. The line is pretty close but I don't see the metro getting back into snow. 

FWIW the mix line has pushed back south back into AGH county. Hopefully it can push further south but I bet the city will be the dividing line as usual. 

Just now, CoraopolisWx said:

Regarding the NWS post about a possible switch back to snow, the GFS did show that possibly happening.

It may happen for a brief time but looking at the high res radar the mix line has surged all the way into Butler county. 

Ping ping. Yep I don't see us get anymore snow. I'm looking forward to our 6 inches in march that's gone in a day. 

The NAM makes this a non event basically. 

Just now, PghPirates27 said:

Anyone remember the last time we had a storm of 6"+ ? It has to have been a few years. I don't even remember the last time we had a WS watch or warning that wasn't for some sort of ice storm. It's amazing the temps over the next few days....close or below freezing, then the precip comes and its 42, then back below freezing. Don't get it.

2 years ago in March I was in the training academy and I remember it clearly because we had to shovel the training grounds. We got lucky and got around 10 inches. 

21 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

A few models did seem to trend in our direction recently.  Still staying very pessimistic, but it looked to be somewhat improved.

Even with perfect conditions I still think this would max out at like 4-6. If we somehow get more than an inch I'd be surprised. 

4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Keep wishing it away and you may end up right.....but no it didnt

 

Correct me if I'm wrong that's a lot of sleet. 

NAM looks faster and colder FWIW compared to 18z. We see a lot of sleet. Maybe we get lucky for a change. 

I honestly just don't think its gonna snow. We either get a crap pacific or a crap atlantic. Even now the MJO goes into phase 7 which isn't terrible but still warmish for January. We need this in phase 8,1,2. The storm after this one looks pretty identical to the saturday slop. Maybe we get lucky in February as the wavelengths start shortening. Idk every time the long range looks good it goes to shit as we get closer to the storm. 

Gfs is faster and colder FWIW. That's what we need if we want a decent thump before the changeover. Let's see if we get some good trends here. 

It just doesn't want to snow this year. We can't even get a clipper that drops 1-3. Everytime a pattern or storm looks promising in the future it goes to shit fast. We usually have bad luck but it's on a whole other level this year. The storm after this looks like a coastal so I don't see any light at the end of the tunnel. 

It's not gonna snow this year. 

The trend is looking good for a quick thump and maybe it trends better but with that warm tongue I never get my Hope's up. 

Next weekend is looking like the usual CAD where its 20 degrees out east and its 45 here. I don't expect much from that system. Hopefully we can cash in with the pattern change but I have my doubts. I'm at the point if we ever get a big storm again I'll stop tracking because it will be another 15 before we get anything noteworthy. 

We need the primary to die off fast and transfer or this is gonna be a quick changeover. Still a week out 

The GEFS looks great. Just need the Euro to hop on board. 

Don't give up hope yet. Long range is finally looking good for some winter fun. Whether or not it comes to fruition is one thing. Atleast there are signs that we get a period of winter. 

I know its been an awful winter whenever you guys are dealing with ice. 

This is looking like its trending to shit and January looks like its trending to shit. The good news is maybe I'll be ready for golf season earlier. Although knowing our luck its gonna be snowing in late April.

Insert Lucy pulling football away picture. I'm not buying it until it's a day out.