Rd9108

So the 12z gfs doesnt look horrible for the next storm. Plus there seems to be loads of chances in the future with the models finally recognizing the pattern change. Looks like I'll be be busy tracking all week. Good thing my job allows me to sit around all day unless we get a call. 

Its gonna be funny when we miss this one to the NW. Although the ensembles and seasonal trend make me optimistic. 

And before I head out for the day and step away from these models. We have the 12z euro. 

We should move to VA

I'd probably be done tracking this year and maybe next year. 

26 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

Saw the most recent NAM and IKON and both have our corner in lighter amounts with heavy to east in somerset and west into OH....figures-whT is it about our corner? The way the apps transfer energy and we end up in a hole?

Energy dying as it enters Western Pa and then the coastal is too far to the east to affect us. We literally need perfect set ups to score big. Whereas the coast can sneeze and as long as it's cold they can get a big storm. 

6 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

Let’s hope the visual north trend!on radar doesn’t get squashed as it moves east....

I'm already looking past this storm for the next one. Although today's storm might have some surprises left especially for those that are gonna get hit by the coastal. 

We're due, those are facts considering our averages. This wait is just gonna make the next big one where its heavy snow here and heavy rain in I95 that much sweeter. Looking at the 06z gefs there was some heavy hitters for the next storm. Still a long way out but it looks like we may finally have true winter storms to track. If I was a betting man I'd say the next one is a nice Youngstown special. 

It's not much but it looks like the models are either not weakening the energy as fast or the precip is higher but the amounts ticked up slightly. But maybe that's all we need to sneak 3 or 4 inches. The next storm period looks more interesting as of now. It feels good to be tracking again. 

2 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Canadian comes more north 3-4. 

So did the gfs but that confluence just shears that thing apart. Im hoping it's over modeled and the precip is slightly under modeled. 

I think 2-4 is not out of the question but that damn confluence is killing a 5-8 storm. It just dies out as it comes east. 

5 minutes ago, Mailman said:

Looks like 3"-ish for all.

I'd say this would be a 3-6 storm if we account for ratios 

3 minutes ago, Mailman said:

Euro looks solid to me.

Yeah definitely looks alot further north than previous run. I want to see what qpf and snowfall equate to. 

At this point like I said I'd take a 2-4 event. We know we dont do big storms well but it would be nice to get a nice warning event here. I'm praying the NAM is right and the GFS is off its rocker. 

Funny how when the models look into a slider that they dont budge. Yet when it's a perfect track for us we get screwed. The south is gonna triple or quadruple us snowfall wise this year. 

It is the NAM but woof does it look good it this juncture. 

NAM at 84 looks extremely promising. 

If I was a betting man I'd put a lot of money on a fringe job. Still a lot of time with this one but no reason to get too invested with this yet. 

That's the euro. I'd take that at this point. 

It cracks me up how spoiled other forum posters are. They freak out whenever they miss out on a big storm every year. Yet they are probably getting more big storms than their average. Also at this point I'd take a decent 3-5 storm. I cant deal with this rain anymore its depressing. 

I almost dont even wanna get invested in this even though it looks like it has the ingredients to be huge. We all know this will fringe us if it's a monster. 

1 hour ago, Mailman said:

Finally something to track.  FV3 is very tasty.

GFS has a monster too it's just a little too far south. 

CMC keeps showing a weird inland runner. It's over a week out though. The signal is there for atleast a storm in that time period. We may finally have something to track. 

Euro just showed a monster storm for east long island and New England. This is looking good as far as the models finally catching on to a pattern change. I can imagine the gfs will start to catch on soon and we will start having atleast white storms to track. WAKE UP ITS COMING!!!!!