jewell2188

40 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

IMO, a hurricane strengthening on landfall is far worse. It's easier for the winds to reach the surface because in a strengthening storm, the core is at its most efficient state (pressure dropping/winds increasing and/or wind field expanding).

A good example of this actually comes from Katrina, but not when it was a 5 in the Gulf. It was intensifying upon landfall in Florida, and although it was a category one (IIRC), because it was intensifying on landfall the impacts in the state were worse than they would have been had it been steady state or weakening. 

Makes sense. Always have been curious about this. I think it would be an interesting study for sure. You would thing a long sustained cat 3-4 traversing the gulf prior to landfall would produce much more damage especially storm surge compared to a storm strengthening to a cat 3-4 or 5 right at landfall. 

Maybe someone can Collaborate…we all know this was never Katrina…..but to my knowledge Katrina was extremely strong long before landfall. Is there a difference between a hurricane with long sustained strength compared to a hurricane strengthening prior to landfall? I’ve always been under the impression that a hurricane strengthening prior to landfall sometimes doesn’t always translate to ground conditions compared to a storm with long sustained strength. 

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z 12K NAM brings widespread heavy rain to entire area….

The nam typically is overdone with precip amounts. But even 1-3 for the majority of the area may cause problems.

15 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Raining on @EastCoast NPZand not on @PrinceFrederickWx.  Nah.

We get shafted….seems legit. 

Ryan reeves put out a response to the Tom Wilson and rangers Incident this past season and how he would have responded to it…..long story short reeves it’s such a mediocre player compared to Tom Wilson it’s not even funny. I can’t stand the fact he thinks his play on the ice is even decent….

2 minutes ago, coolio said:

NAM has DC proper getting 4.44 through 1pm tomorrow. Wowsa.

Radar is meh. 

Highly doubt the FFW verifies for majority of the area. 

58 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Visible satellite suggests areas along and east of I-95 could see sun today. Might help destabilize the atmosphere a bit more.

Filtered sun here in stone ridge.

The same areas hit hard the other night are in-line again. I’m only frustrated because where I’m located we could use every bit of it. Grass is still crunchy! I miss mowing lol

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Getting a decent tropical shower here now.

I am happy to see the westward shift in the heavy rain forecast for this week. Looks like the mountains will take the brunt, with a general 1-2" for the Piedmont and maybe even less for the coastal plain. I have a project scheduled for late week, and wet and rainy might delay it.

Can you post some rainfall totals?

Areas west of 95 look unimpressive this evening. As it has been last few days. 

Extremely interesting on the FFW issued. It would seem a somewhat larger area would be warranted. 

14 minutes ago, frd said:

You just don't get it do you?

  We are not even talking about tornadoes bud, talking about general rainfall probabilities, excessive rainfall,  and the potential for damaging winds.  Should have been a wide area of at least some action, but the majority was well north and in the Southern areas more so scattered. You commnet is troll-ish.   And wow, you kow geography, you are correct this is not the Plains.   

I mean I would agree. We have better coverage with decent storms in a marginal outlook versus slight/enhanced. But has I said mid morning, sunny sky’s turned into overcast. Kiss of death. It’s not anything unexpected around here lol. 

Cloud cover ruined today for widespread storms. But that was known late morning. Seems as though it’s always something in this area that could ruin a wet dream. 

What was a sunny morning has give way to pretty overcast here in N fauquier county.

Enhanced threat now for northern portions of the area. 

Just judging by current radar this does appear to be generally north of 66 and possible north of DC metro event. 

On 6/10/2021 at 9:03 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not sure if the ground truth is reality but that area just north of Winchester has been pounded for hours on end.

I live in culpeper and it in fact it ended with 8-10 inches. Countless roads gone and one bridge collapse. Numerous swift water rescues due to ignorant people. The water rise was so quick it was mind blowing.

16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Euro is broken...always shows big heat and big rain anymore.

I was assume those amounts are going to be more isolated versus widespread? 

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Yup, not a good position for us to be in heading into the playoffs.  Although at this point, why even have a COVID protocol list?  Seems like they can drop that.

I see nothing good happening in the first round for the caps. Anything less then 100% against what will likely be Boston, I see an early first round exit.

12 hours ago, yoda said:

Penguins win division title and #1 seed since Caps went to OT

First time since when??? Lol

30 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

Downgraded to advisory until 0200 Sat for us.

Not even sure why it wasn't canceled altogether.  Here we didn't even have advisory criteria winds.  Spent today sharpening chains, can't work in "high wind warning".  Cut some ash cookies with the 661, she's wicked sharp now!

It's funny this area busts even on weather we really DON'T want.  Oh well, sunny with 75F dewpoints here we come. :|

Yeah HWW have rarely verified in our area with the exception of what two years ago!? 

What’s crazy is vdot actually spent ALOT of money this winter on snow removal. The last “storm” many local vdot yards had a salt shortage. Will be interesting to see the final numbers.

More snow tonight versus the couple inches predicted last storm lmao