jewell2188

42 minutes ago, high risk said:

        Agreed.   Looking at the various CAMs, there isn't going to be very much CAPE available on the east side of the Potomac.    The best SVR risk is likely to be west of DC.

How about the flood risk west of 95? Mike Thomas highlighted earlier the focus of the flood threat would be just west of DC give or take. 

22 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Sim reflectivity has looked pretty consistently good on the CAMs. The one issue may be that some of us get missed to the west on a few models. We'll see how it looks tomorrow AM. I think it'll be a solid SLGT day. 

Is the flood threat more of a concern versus the severe ?

I would expect watches incoming soon. 

Looks like a rather meh day.

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Yeah - lots are now hitting the 16-18z time period. That's too early for our hopes. We need 19z or later...

Looking like flooding may be the biggest concern.

Aside from that lone cell. This mornings activity ruined todays true potential. Which is fairly common around here lol

Did the enhanced get shoved further west from earlier?

24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Bit of clearing in WV resulting in SBCAPE of ~500j/kg and supercell composite starting to nose up. Not going to take a lot of sun today to stir things up.

Seems like we will have very little clearing east of the blue ridge.

19 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

Oh I'm used to it.   I could use the sun though.  This 15kWh/day BS is getting old!

This has the look of East of the bay event. 

1 hour ago, Stormfly said:

Just about the entire state of MD in slight risk, 15% wind.  Pretty impressive for March!

You better hope for prolonged sunshine. Without that this time of the year, your pissing in the wind lol. 

Unless we had measurable snow today, after the spring weather we’ve had, today absolutely sucked!!!! Bring on the 80’s and 90’s!!!

Back edge rapidly approaching. 

One could laugh at this but one could also understand this could be a sneaky event. It would be fitting given the winter we have had. 

I would think with a mod La Niña this spring, that would mean an active severe season for us? 

42 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I've seen many shops in my days.  You can tell from the pixels.  This is definitely one, Russian probably.  

The guy literally is a joke. Almost certain he’s not really respected regardless of his knowledge. 

Now that we are back to reality, looking forward to spring!!! 

And of course DT with the update when Richmond gets snow 

So where do we stand??? How do road crews prepare??? 

CWG basically just declared this a non event 95 West. It’s over…. 

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Sounds like west of 95 should give up all hope...I wonder how many different ways and times we will be told that 

It doesn’t seem to be our year. 

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The question is...

A) Is that still even possible, and

What would have to happen to get there? (Utter perfection? Lol

I would say at this point, if that were the case it would be well modeled by now. The big ones are almost always sniffed out by this time frame. We started the month good, but it’s starting to seem the big ones may escape our grasp. 

Can anyone tell me how much Williamsburg is expecting?? My company just got the call from vdot and they need 8 of our plow trucks by 8pm tonight.

3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Because there’s nothing else to focus on in the near term?

I would love to see actual data on snow removal budgets in other places across the country. I do snow removal for the state in Chantilly and I can tell you first hand how much money gets wasted. This area is a complete laughing stock when it comes to winter weather.  

38 minutes ago, snowfan said:

No need to be so harsh. It’s just snow.

Not being harsh at all. Just saying. These setups never work here. Regardless of what the models were showing all day. To my knowledge the mesos are backpedaling on snowfall amounts the last couple hours leading up to game time which is typical in these setups. 

3 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

This nam run showing more rain than previous runs

Do you actually think it would show any different? We suck at these events. Anyone expecting more than an inch is delusional.