jewell2188

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

 

That hurts 

2 minutes ago, Clueless said:

Maybe next time for Leesburg folks.  A flake or two then rain.  

How many true coastal storms did we have over the summer months that led to our very wet summer?!

Can we get an update on the rain coming this weekend...so boring in this thread lmao

A lot of street flooding going on in warrenton area! Heavy rain for the last hour.

13 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

Collect them up and we'll all be rich. 

(Sorry, couldn't resist) 

I’ll let you know what I end up with 

Tennis ball size hail likely just east of culpeper

Gold ball size hail being reported just east of culpeper 

Extremely heavy rainfall some gusty winds. Penny size hail in culpeper.

Can someone explain to me how all that deep tropical moisture just dries up 

4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Drizzle.   Barely even wet the ground.

Activity has really weakened big time. So disappointing hahaha

But also seem to be weakening quite a bit. Surprising given the air mass in place. 

Heavy rains to the south and west of the area. Ever so slowly pushing eastward. FFW already south of culpeper due to training. 

9 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Picked up a whopping .5" yesterday evening over a 20 minute stretch.  Not a drop overnight.

This stretch of I-81 is safe, Jeb.  Except maybe from dehydration.

Not far from you being in the plains, it poured for a good 45 mins last night along with quite the light show.

It looks like flooding likely again for the same areas as last night. Reports of flooding already in Clifton from the Little line that went through.

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I think it comes north as well... fairly intact 

Still good lift and ok Cape ,convergence 

Why have the short range models been fairly terrible with this? 

23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah its super humid out there. Unlike last night, not expecting any t-storms here tonight.

That big western Atlantic High will keep most or all the action west of I-95, and maybe well west. Even though CAPE is pretty darn high, and PWATS are in the neighborhood of 2", there is just no real trigger. Looks like any shortwaves will stay far enough west and track north into PA for the near term. That blocking high is a bully. You have a pretty decent shot at a t-storm in your area tonight though.

Judging by the returns coming up from southern va that has been filling in nicely it looks to me as though the same areas that were hit hard last night just west of 95 may get in the action again later tonight. 

3 hours ago, osfan24 said:

Models definitely look really dry. NAM shows some heavy rain late Thursday, but it keeps teasing with that and then it doesn't come to fruition. This looks like a huge bust. Cranky can't win them all!

Cranky actually did a great job. 

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Look at some of the model progs for later this afternoon. There's plenty of guidance that keeps DC completely dry with the storms all heading well north and west of the area. Instability/ingredients in place does not equal severe weather. Could be best forcing stays west. It may be that the triggers for closer in to the cities will be outflow boundaries and things like bay breezes etc. 

Plenty of guidance also kept the area dry last night.....what happened west of town?

A lot of flooding in souther fauquier county this morning. Many roads closed. Moderate to heavy rain a good portion of the night. Interested to see what happens today

7 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

He does, but I'm not seeing any model support for that whatsoever.

Where does that huge surge of rain go? I don’t see it disappearing ?

Based on radar a lot of tropical moisture lighting up in the Deep South.....question I have is, does that make it into the area tomorrow??? 

New Baltimore/warrenton area had to have received a quick inch or more. Quite a bit of street flooding ongoing. 

37 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Definitely similar . When I look at the latest models at 500mb ...this time the ull looks to be further west centered over Missouri then drifts NNE from there by Thursday ish . This most recent system ended up in the southeast ..also ..it doesn't become nearly  as negatively tilted . So  maybe not quite as long lasting as a result   . But with a strong west Atlantic ridge pressing west again ..I think local impacts could  be similar for sure  with us in the " squeeze " zone and deep gulf moisture .

Next Tuesday . 

The war won't be denied 

Pwats

 

Ninj'd by Yoda 

I should of gave the short version lol

 

Latest from Sterling for next week ..

Monday, dry conditions will continue early in the day, before the
warm front lifts northward by early to mid afternoon. This is in
response to an approaching upper level trough from the east, and a
subtropical high pressure off the east coast (the Bermuda High)
drifting towards the west. The combination of these two factors will
allow for rich moisture to be transported into the region from the
Gulf of Mexico. With plentiful moisture, paired with left ahead of
the trough, showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly
likely Monday afternoon into the evening.

The upper-level trough continues to move towards the area Tuesday
and Wednesday, while the Bermuda High remains anchored off the east
coast. This will lead to a tightening of the gradient in the upper
levels, leading to an increase in the wind field aloft. Both the
Euro and GFS suggest that winds in the 850-500 hPa layer will
increase to 30-40 kts during this time frame. Again, with abundant
moisture and lift, scattered showers and storms will be possible
both days. With a strengthening upper level wind field, this would
suggest the possibility for a few stronger thunderstorms each
afternoon. However the smaller scale details will have to be ironed
out closer to this time. High temperatures Monday through Wednesday
will again remain in the mid 80s across the region.

 

 

Great explanation! I would assume the axis of heavier rains would be more west this go around considering the ull would be further west? 

Does anyone know if next weeks rainy pattern will be similar to this past weeks??