North Balti Zen

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Yep. One of the 3 carries for Gus. Only weakness of the Chiefs D- stopping the run.

 

As a neutral observer (bengals fan) who has recent experience watching his beloved team playing the Chiefs in big games (Burrow is 3-1 against Mahomes and 1-1 in the AFC championship) I cannot underscore enough that point.  I thought the offensive gameplan from Monken/Harbaugh was perplexing (at best). Clearly KC had a plan to contain Lamar in the pocket - their rush lane discipline was excellent and the strength of KC's D is their defensive backfield (and Chris Jones at d-tackle - but he's more effective rushing the QB). So...run the ball? With the best rushing offense in the NFL? I mean...that, right? Instead, the run almost entirely abandoned. I was absolutely confused. Still am. 

It didn’t hit parts of our area flush obviously (and 100% did hit other parts of our area flush) , but these kinds of wild upper air patterns are how you end up eventually with a March 1993 type scenario somewhere. If that kind of monster is gonna happen- it will be in response to this kind of pattern (assuming we do indeed get to this kind of pattern….)

Quick readers note- props to a bunch of you in this thread for highlighting for days the insanely interesting upper air patterns as shown on the uber long range modeling and for further saying that at some point some crazy solutions are gonna pop up in the fantasy range. That euro map is exactly what many of you have been saying will start to show up in response to the progged pattern. That indeed is a wild solution. 
 

well done in particular @CAPE @Heisy  @brooklynwx99  @psuhoffman  @stormtracker  among others. Just wanted to shout out the excellent discussions you all have had for over a week now at least about the period ahead. 

6 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

If it's this warm 2 days before potential snow it's not going stick. It's probably not going to fall as snow at all.

I refer you to the thread title. The chase is for “snow TV maybe”. The expectations were reasonable from the jump in that the likely at best outcome would be wet snow for a time for a part of the area. At best. 

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol. This feels like March 2001---slipping way

Yes, a thread chasing flurries is EXACTLY like March 2001. Good comp. 

1 hour ago, LeesburgWx said:

I noticed the long term thread starting slowing down with posts. So I go look to see where everyone went. I find this thread and God damn, what a train wreck 

I don’t know what this means. There’s a chance of something wintery for a part of the forum in around 60 hours. We do threads for discrete winter threats at this range traditionally. 

You know what the data shows though, if mt. PSU gets snow tv on the night of Jan. 28 then we all score a HECS mid-month.*

*Probably.****

****Per PSU's secret data-set to get people to root for snow for his backyard specifically.

This thread appears to be tracking snow TV for mt. psu.

4 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

this is just great.

There were four calls for it in the other thread. But, hey, thanks for the weenie emoji. 

Just now, WxUSAF said:

This is where we talk about the ravens game??

That is the more likely outcome to this thread, yes. 

I did it. Started. 

Here we go. Or not. This thread doesn't control outcome. Unless it does.

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Snow TV on the GFS Sun night/Monday.    Sold!

If we actually get enough flakes for legit snow TV status during the heart of the warm hades horror winter lull ("WHHWL") I am gonna go ahead and take that as a good sign for prosperity when thing break back our way starting around Feb. 8...

9 minutes ago, mikeg0305 said:

Same commute for me everyday. Parkton to Inner Harbor. I left at 6:45, so while still foggy it only took me 40 mins.

I left at 7:30 and...too late for that today. Almost a dead stop at the Hereford zone ramp and bumper to bumper whole way down. No accidents, just fog and volume and rain. 85 minutes. 

No idea- it was immediately evident upon exiting the house in northern balt county that visibility blew. It got no better at any point on my thunderdome drive downtown. 

Heck, given the notes on how awful this immediate pattern is - having had something to even keep an eye on for a few days has been a pleasant surprise. 

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Maybe I should have waited to post that last post above yours. 

Nah - we are saying the same thing - I think it's a sign of growth that people have been realistic at range - I think your discussion for days has been on point and appropriately framed (and solution and wxluvr). Plenty of people will still tune into today's 12z b/c it's not a zero chance.  I genuinely think your guidance of the long range discussion this year when we have had discernable threats has been really excellent fwiw. 

36 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

In all seriousness, the Sunday thing was a mirage.  GFS own ensembles are laughing at it.   I think we're tracking again in 10 days.  We'll have the championship game and Super Bowl to distract us till then.  We can make it.

fwiw, I was pretty proud of the board for not biting on it in any respect in terms of anticipation etc. Small victory for people keeping their inner snow child in check...not that we won't keep an eye on the next set of runs of course...

The commute down 83 was a foggy hell. 15 mph on average bumper to bumper for 27 miles.

snowpack still on my back hill that doesn’t get as much sun. I’m not a snowpack zealot but will have had snow on ground for 11 days straight assuming today is the last day for it - that’s pretty legit. 

Any flakes falling on Monday during the two-week sadness lull up my way would be a bit of a win.

3 hours ago, mappy said:

you def get colder than me despite my added elevation. 24 for a low at my place. 

It has been that way this year - last year was the reverse - micro-climate stuff is genuinely fascinating to me. 

19 this AM for the morning dog jaunt. Felt like it. Cold.

First Webb and now Heisy? Holy balls. 

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

El Nino favors an extended and equatorward shifted Pacific jet, and the results downstream are often beneficial to our hopes and dreams. Seems he is attempting to be intellectually honest with this one lol.

Quite the heel turn for him...

So, it was 7 this AM and that...kinda blew. I walked a mile and a half but...enough already. The sun and melt currently underway feels amazing. 

Snow was nice, nice week, but looking forward to giving the heating oil a break.