North Balti Zen

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

 

hmmm, not dismissing this...but for the kicker to have that kind of impact...doesn't it need to impact the H5 which drives the flow?  And in that case I should see other examples that looked like this and crushed just SE of us with snow but I don't.  But the upper low still tracks to our NW and is plenty to the NW of the surface low not pressing it east...it's just weird to me.  The weird part is to have a wave amplified enough to drop those kinds of snow totals down there...but not come north despite the flow being plenty relaxed enough and the confluence to be way up near Canada.  That's why you don't see examples of this...for a wave to get "kicked" in that kind of flow it would have to be pretty weak, and a weak wave isn't dropping 1-2 feet of snow anywhere.  A wave that is amplifying enough to put down that kind of snow wouldn't just turn east ahead of a cut off upper low back over Ohio and a SW to NE flow all the way to Maine with the 50/50 already to south of Greenland!  Make it make sense.  

thanks. 

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I know u didn't ask me, but it does get N and isn't suppressed. The problem is the kicker pushes it all too far east before it can begin the move to the N. At least that's the way I am seeing it. Up top looks fine....weakening block. 50/50 progressing along and confluence where we like it. I am convinced that vigorous kicker is the culprit. Without that kicker it comes N sooner. 

Eta: kicker, not licker. Fixed typo stupid screen protector

@psuhoffman thoughts on ralph's question? because i have the same one/observation on the potential issue. 

11/22/24 - T

12/5/24 - T

12/6/24 - T

12/20/24 - .5”

12/24/24 - .1"

1/3/25 - T

1/6/25 - 3” (the opposite of the magical event for the beltways here in Monkton - ten hours of snow to get three whole inches. Whee.)

1/11/25 2"(snow on snow)(snow started just after midnight and ended up almost as much as Monday's disappointment - this one was way more fun to wake up to)

1/16/25 - T

1/19/25 - 2" (another winter storm warning bust - couldn't hold good banding or snow growth other than for about one hour) (still running on six years since a verified warning event for areas I have lived (north baltimore city and then monkton starting in 2022)

2/11/25 - 2.5”

2/15/25 - .3" (some sort of wintry mixish stuff)

Season total  -  10.4”

Every time - "where in the hell did that piece of energy come from? Ah well, nevertheless..."

The real ones know, there is ALWAYS a hidden kicker lurking to pop up on the modeling about this time. At least, when it affects the warning-level snow-hole zone currently in effect for six years and counting between my area and Havre de Grace...

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

Miss?? Cause of 1 gfs run??

Relax you. @T. August knows we got this. Dodging warning levels snow events like Neo dodging bullets. 

Just now, T. August said:

Don’t look at the individual members 

Look at us reeling in another potential miss! Hot streak, baby!

11 minutes ago, mattie g said:

That’s rich coming from you.

Right??? Growth!!!!

Even the Canadian is still an area wide warning snowfall, fucking put on your big person pants people. Jesus.

Snowing pretty good in hunt valley 

Just now, Weather Will said:

It will be ironic if the Canadian and EURO go south at 12Z...

Shut your mouth 

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I mean there is a difference between getting 8” and being upset someone else got 12” and getting 3” when others got 8-12”.  I’m fine with not being the jack so long as I get into the “meat” of the storm and not another fringe 

I think people are COMPLETELY missing that point - thanks for making it again.  It's not being out of the jack, it is missing the good stuff entirely.  24 hours of snow that accumulates 3 inches kinda stuff. That has been that way for years and years for many of us up this way.  

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Ok, let's not start dreaming up ways to fail. 

Just tag Ralph.

@Ralph Wiggum, cut that shit out.

54 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I am not really getting involved in the 20th until Monday at the earliest.  I mean missing to the East, would sum up my winter of getting missed by every direction.

Oh, I think we can book that from here...

7 hours ago, Paleocene said:

Long range thread hysterically awful

It got better 

6 minutes ago, JPL said:

Hi Everyone!  Longtime reader here for many years, and have been following the models for this storm.  I have seen a couple of people note timing for next week's storm.  I have a critical appointment next wed afternoon and am hoping someone may be able to provide some insight into a likely start time (I know we are still aways away) so I can plan accordingly.  Thank you for all of the great posts- always an interesting read.  Cheers!

Welcome - genuinely too early to guess at that. Might not even be a storm to time out. 

3 minutes ago, kristia said:

Leaving a trail of weather sadness and misery wherever I go

Just pure devastation and crying snow lovers in our wake 

5 minutes ago, kristia said:

Moved here from Baltimore County in 2020 and I think I killed the snow vibe  hasn’t been much to write home about these last few years. 

See!!!!! @Interstate  @mappy - I may not be the only moving jinx!!!!

Just now, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Pann also infamously went too low in Snowmageddon part 1, though not nearly as bad as 2016.

He got off for years on being contrarian - he would literally forecast the opposite of the modeling.  When modeling showed a no snow or small snow event, he would grab the outlier snowiest model and push that. And, yes, he totally underforecast a few of the biggest area storms, again, I think because it was his shtik. 

33 minutes ago, Ji said:

No way. Tony pann calls for snow during the summer.

He was in a full blown contrarian phase. It was bizarre. Then I no longer had to read his shit because I got the block hammer...

He was doubling down on 3-6 for balt city in real time on twitter even as it was already vomiting snow - I wore him out for a bit on that and then he sent me to the shadow zone…

No regrets! 

8 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

This made me laugh out loud. I remember those posts. 

Ancient history. Only posts like that now come from Calvert County on the regular...

54 minutes ago, H2O said:

I’m now getting to the stage where I’ll do 5-2” shovel jobs instead of one shovel after it’s done to not destroy my janky back. 

That too. 100%.

39 minutes ago, Kay said:

Why shovel before rain? Not judging just curious.

In my case - cheap “old man” (mid-50s) cardio.