North Balti Zen

Is this where I can extrapolate the NAM for February 2?

motherofsidewaysfucks, are people really extrapolating the NAM and then worrying about their fictional extrapolation?

But what if it ends as sleet? It would be ruined!

Maybe stop worrying about what you literally can’t control? we’ve been dying for a moisture laden bomb into cold air for a decade. Just roll the dice and hope for the best. This beats the hell out of hoping to squeeze a warning level snow out of .3” qpf from a weak low sliding off the coast and watching the northern edge get eaten by dry air. I mean, jeebus everyone.

Oh no! 12-18 inches of snow before we worry about sleet on top? awful! We need to go back to the happier runs where we smoked cirrus- that was totally better… FORFUCKSAKE PEOPLE

From 0" to 12" in one run. Good stuff, GFS. Steady as she goes...

Saving 0s and 1s for Minesweeper games in the off hours. That's just science.

The goofus just totally drives people nuts, really. Which, I want to make fun of but also...it's annoying that the GFS is doing this. Then again, it is up against itself in terms of its insane windshield wiping even from run to run. In any event, as I noted previously up thread in this here banter hangout, if the GFS was showing us getting hammered like it is the Carolinas in this instance and every other model was showing everything Philly and north we would be absolutely certain that we were hosed... And yet, hard to feel completely ok with the GFS continuing to intermittently spit in the pool. But I sure do like where we sit.

My youngest - studying for their Masters in Galway, Ireland - had a really nice light show from this last night.

Not for nothing, but if the gfs were showing a snow bomb for us and every other model had it Philly north instead we would all know the gfs was full of it.

The go big or go home bottom of the ledger casting their eyes at this next few weeks and crossing fingers...

All obs this year for me are from Fallston, MD - 11/30 - T 12/2 - A little frz rain to start - trees and car glazed - but 35 and rain for most of event 12/5 - T (dusting from a few hours of flurries as dry cold death air ate any chance of anything else north of BWI 12/14 - 4” 1/2 - .2" (frontal passage snow squall dealie 1/17 - .7" 1/18 - .5" Running season total - 5.4”

16 at the farm this AM.

Shortly after that it flipped to snow for a bit - maybe half an inch. Trees are pretty.

It’s just rain in Fallston as of 6:15 am.

@Interstate Thanks !

Whoa! I am flying back from New Mexico this AM - I will use your measurement for my spot - what do you have ?

I am in Albuquerque today and Santa Fe tomorrow and Friday. Someone tell me which direction I need to step outside and strongly exhale to change things upstream to fix the snow issues for us.

Texans are gonna smoke the Steelers.

Yes. Kinda hoping that becomes the focus in the models and we don't end up in the the 15th thing messes up the one after scenario...

For the record - I recognize this from past winters. Two waves - people get invested in one, then the other, then a why not both hope sets in. It looks promising for one, then the other, then magically, a shift to a middle compromise with a massive storm. Hopes surge. Then, it starts to look muddy. PSUHoff weighs in to say that with better spacing it would be two nice events, but that unfortunately the worry is that they are too close together and interfere with the development of each. That ends up being right and we get flurries on Friday and gray skies on Sunday and see reports from the Carolinas of getting smoked in the first event and the Poconos in the second event.

We've missed forecast high temps for weeks. We were more than due to overshoot - especially with sun available.

Full sun is MOST welcome for me anyway to start the day. Happy with 50s too. Need a mental weather reset after too many days of cold and gray with no snow.

I really want to see something overperform in terms of precip at some point - would feel a lot better about any future snow hopes if we could see something juice up and hit at gametime - so let’s start that this weekend I say.

BWI at 2" indeed not gonna add to this list of shame but not a robust start. DCA at 1.5" is almost clear of a top 5 dead-ratter. IAC at 2.1" though...should be safe obviously but still work to do.