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qg_omega

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Everything posted by qg_omega

  1. Winter severe season looks to get going this weekend
  2. MJO spending sufficient time outside of the warm phases, not seeing any evidence of that yet. Cold moving to our side of the globe (currently opposite) and an improved PAC. Basically the opposite of what we will have for December
  3. You scored on the early season “cold” pattern, unfortunately that looks to change now for the next 4 to 6 weeks
  4. Mid month torch, can call these years out at this point
  5. Spot on, incredible analysis as usual from you
  6. Yup most expected this December to be awful, most
  7. I read what you said wrong, this shows even an AO under 1 now just gets us back to what we had without it
  8. Unfortunately, this is not correct
  9. Decent looking as expected, above normal. Only question is +4 vs +8
  10. with the block we are +2 to +4, without it we would be +6 to +8
  11. Cold air will be in the other side of the pole all month, we are blocking PAC air, go warm
  12. A day near 70 in December fits the persistence pattern we are in
  13. Got a couple of inches even at lake level, 400ish feet. Forecast was just rain, about 7 inches up at Gore and another storm where Gore cleaned up as Whiteface rained, second time this past week
  14. Well forecasted on the models, if you actually believed the output. NWS dismissed for most, was a great storm for the mountains
  15. 11 to 16 forecasts, even if all in agreement, are very low skill
  16. Gore off to a fast start vs WF, another big Gore storm with rain at WF
  17. Got married 10 years ago today, had a great snow squall that night that laid down some snow
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