NEOH

CLE SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Little will change in the weather pattern into monday as the upper trough remains in place with a series of troughs/reinforcing cold fronts dropping se across the area. Any 12 hour period should see max accumulation of 2 to 4 (maybe 3 to 5 sat night) inches in the core snowbelt so see no need for headlines attm but may need later advisory for sat night into sunday. More significant upper s/wdiving into the area sun should lead to a little more widespread snowfall. Will need to increase snow accumulation amounts in some periods from previous forecast to better reflect the situation and better collaborate with BUF.

CLE definitely runs warm. They need to move away from the runway... its a concrete jungle around there. I was at freezing last night around 8pm.

It's dumping in Chagrin right now. Huge flake size. Nice to see the snow again.

Nice forecast OHWeather. I'll be leaving town on Saturday. Hopefully every one cashes in. Looks like an interesting event.

Ha! Wouldn't that be something. There's plenty of gas in the snowblower for my wife to do the driveway.

Just read BUF's disco re: LES later this week. They sound awfully optimistic. We don't have the long fetch or elevation of WNY, but I'd imagine the conditions would be similar in our area with lesser totals of course. The airmass is not overly cold by late January standards, with 850mb temps starting at around -8C Thursday night and dropping to around -12C over the weekend. Temperatures are fairly cold at 700mb however, and this combined with deep moisture will allow lake induced equilibrium levels to rise to near 10K feet. The favorable instability and longevity of the setup suggest significant accumulations are possible east of the lakes. A comparison of the surface and upper level patterns to our locally developed lake effect analogs show a good match to significant events for the Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill/Oswego County. CIPS analogs also support the idea of a significant event. 3-4 day storm totals may very well reach several feet east of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario from late week into the weekend.

I will be traveling this coming Saturday through next Thursday so I'll miss most of the snow. Outside of the mud... I've enjoyed this mild stretch. It will be nice to see the snow again but if we are counting on LES I'd feel a lot better being around the Rt 6 corridor the way this season has played out.

Check out today's 12z GFS. That would be a perfect storm position for heavy synoptic snow in most of Ohio... but there is no cold air to be found.

CLE sums things up pretty well... Given that it is mid January, it is remarkable that the air mass is so warm that there is not much risk of snow. Some wet snow or a few sleet pellets may mix in Monday night into Tuesday, probably mostly in the hills of northeast OH and northwest PA.

Nothing like a 60 degree mid-January day! Looks like the pattern will change at the end of the month, and possibly offer storm potential.

I'll bet the under on getting to average around here... and at CLE as well. The lake should be ice free next week, but the water temps will be hovering around freezing. If we are going to get a significant LES event it would have to happen with the next cold shot as any sustained cold will form ice quickly again. When you take LES out of the equation and consider the lack of synoptic snow we receive it would take a special pattern to get to normal.

What an awful pattern for mid-January. Woke up to thunder and heavy rain around 5am this morning with temps in the mid 50's. We will need a few significant events to get anywhere close to normal out this way. As long as there is open water on the lake we'll have a chance. Temps are in the 30's near the western basin, and that area hasn't had as much rain so this warm-up probably didn't melt all of the ice out that way. Areas such and Euclid and Willoughby have probably exceeded their annual average snowfall already. Its pretty rare for those locations to see more snowfall than this area.

It was nice to pick up a little more snow before the warm up. We'll be looking at much different landscape tomorrow. If anything the warmer temps, wind and rain should do a number on the ice that formed on the lake. We'll have open water when the next cold shot arrives around the end of the month (possibly).

It will be interesting to see what happens tonight. The flow finally is favorable for those of us south of 322 but there is a lot of ice on the lake... Although it is probably just slushy. Really bad timing on the ice formation. I wonder if a band will set up just east of the ice which looks be from Lorain on west.

Isn't that amazing... the flow will finally become favorable but we will lack the wind strength to push the band inland. High res models are showing a good amount of snow near the lakeshore. Took a peak at the visible satellite and there is a lot of ice out west. I'd imagine with temps near 0 tonight the western basin will be closed off. For laughs... take a look at the long range GFS. The overrunning event it depicts for next weekend would be crazy.

Lake county should get hit hard tonight. The winds are so light there should be nice convergence near the lake shore.

We average around 90"-100" in this area... which doesn't seem feasible at this point. But who knows, maybe February and March will be rockin.

Forgot that this is your first winter back up "north". If this pattern keeps up you may have to wait for a 50" winter We'll get our synoptic system one of these days... its just a matter of time.

About an inch of fluff has come down... just had a nice burst of snow. Huge flakes under the heavier returns on radar.

Looks like another solid LES event for those from Rt.6 on northeast. NAM and WRF both have a lot of precip falling in that area. The slight shift north with the precip takes us out of the game completely around here... although we were never really in it. The consolation prize is that the bare ground will freeze so I won't have to deal with a muddy yard until the next warm up.

Surprised no advisories for Lake or Ashtabula. Radar looks great up there. Water levels have to be extremely low out west... Pretty much a perfect fetch for draining the shallow waters. The nam shows a decent amount of precip up near the lake/Geauga border.

Looks like the LES event this week will favor the areas that do best with a westerly (260-270) flow once again. Congrats to the usual suspects. At least locally, this has been a bummer start to the winter. While we had some snowcover in December for a change, we've missed out on the significant LES events in this area. The western basin should develop ice again fairly quickly.

Around 2" here. Ridging is pushing in from the west so that should do it... Outside of a few more snow showers. On to the next.

Had thunder snow a little after 8pm. The heavy band is just south of here...unreal how the heaviest bands miss this area the past two years. Ohweather has been underneath it for awhile. Thundersnow has such a unique sound.... A very low and long rumble to it.

Radar looks great out to the west. Moisture is the one thing we seem to lack during les events.... Nice to see that isn't the case this time. Just need everything else to come together.