NEOH

The meso models on tropical tidbits all show a nice bullseye over Geauga county. High bust potentail as you mentioned with the WSW winds over land. The flow does come around from 280-290 for a few hours so there is hope.

About 2" down so far and snowing nicely. Looks like we'll have a coiple more hours of synoptic snow as well.

Meso models showing an intense band developing tomorrow... Most take it pretty far south before shifting off to the ne with the backing winds.

CLE issued LES advisories for geauga, lake and ashtabula. Some of the meso models show a healthy band pushing south into southern geauga. We'll see how everything plays out but this should easily be our largest snowfall of the season. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE BY THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH.

It depends on the situation... when the low moves away winds are slower to turn WSW'erly further to the northeast. So while winds are backing across NE Ohio as ridging pushes in they stay from the W or WNW'erly longer in WNY. I think lake erie's shoreline configuration plays a role as well. Hopefully we'll get a true NW flow event at some point. The clipper and short lived LES should be our largest snow of the year in this area.

Came up with the same total. Winds were ripping so it was hard to measure. Sure felt like Winter this morning. It would really be a kick in the arse if we don't see one significant LES event on a NW flow before the ice forms... which will be happening soon. Looks like winds will turn WNW'erly for a brief time following the clipper then shift to the WSW - same as this past storm.

Yeah, 290 is the best wind direction we could ask for... Longest fetch possible. The east side on through Geauga county do best with that wind direction.

Those amounts are very realistic. Liking the fact that winds stay north of due west for most of Sunday night. The clipper and les still look good as well.

On a 290 flow that would be great. Just more moisture and we are in business.

Our prospects for snow are looking a little better. Looks like we will have a 6-9 hour window of WNW winds once the storm passes before they turn WSW. I think a more easterly track of the low would be beneficial (instead of moving NNE). Just about the same set-up behind the clipper... with a brief window of WNW winds. Better than watching a multi-day WNY burying with constant WSW winds.

There will definitely be a nice window for enhancement as the low moves to the NE. Yeah... would be nice to hold that flow for a few days. Would be great if the low slowed down north of lake ontario. Gotta love CLE - THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY WE SHOULD SEE THE RAIN SWITCH TO SNOW. ACCUMULATING WRAP AROUND SNOW IS LIKELY MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOUGH TO GET EXCITED ABOUT SNOW THIS WINTER BUT IF THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WE MAY NEED SOME SORT OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE. AS IT STANDS WILL NEED HIGH PRECIP CHANCES MOST OF THE PERIOD.

After today's model runs it appears the low might run right over CLE this weekend. Even if it were take a more easterly track there just wouldn't be enough cold air around. Looks like a brief window for wrap around lake enhanced snow before winds shift to the wsw.

Boring disco from CLE in this afternoon AFD. At least we'll have more exciting weather to track in the coming days.

A long ways out... but it does appear that winds will be shifting around throughout the event. Doubtful that one area gets hit for multiple days. I still think WNY will be the jackpot. CLE mentioned ice cover building in the western basin next week. It has really cooled off the past few days so not surprising. Still hoping that the Sunday/Monday wave can deliver some synoptic snow.

Temp was 1.4 IMBY this morning so pretty close. There is still plenty of time for the models to change which I'm sure they will. Would be great to sneak in a synoptic system in the Sunday/Monday time frame. Euro takes the weak low too far east for us.

As currently modeled... the winds would be west to wsw throughout. Basically worst case scenario if you live in Ohio. WNY would be buried once again. Lets hope things change.

Right around 2" here in South Russell. Was definitely expecting a better event. On to the next...

Good to hear about the Huron band... The local models were always too far west/south with band placement so we'll see what happens. Must have been poor snow growth today... Snowed much of th day but only snow grains/pellets. Starting to pick-up again now.

If the Huron band swings far enough west you may do better than expected by the lakeshore. Does CLe or Buf still run the local models? Can't find them on either site.

Nice forecast oh weather. Radar is starting to light up over the lake. Sure feels like winter again... Now let's get some snow to go with the cold. With the short fetch we'll probably see the "green blob" radar appearance over the higher elevations.

It will be interesting to see how everything works out... typically these arctic frontal passages don't produce much LES, but moisture doesn't look that bad as you mentioned. With lake temps in the central basin around 42 degrees that will certainly produce extreme instability. Anything to end this endless boring stretch will be welcome. Can't believe there is is chance of LES without a WSW wind.

It will definitely be colder... But doesn't look like anything exciting snowfall wise. A couple seasonable days then above normal earl next week. Hopefully we can see a few snow showers Friday/Saturday. Would rather it stay warm until/if the pattern changes as most are talking about. Don't want to bleed any more warmth from the lake.

60/58 Imby on 12/23... While it feels nice it just doesn't feel right. Let's just keep the lake temps warm at this point. Unreal warmth out there.

Congrats on the snow.... Especially the way this winter has started. Only 3" around here but it feels like winter... Even only for a brief time.

I didn't think it would come this far south either. If it can take a more NW to SE position it won't lose the long fetch. But it looks like it may just sag south due E to W.