NEOH

Hopefully the Sunday/Monday time frame delivers for LES. Models are pretty consistent in showing winds in the 280-290 range for a fairly long period. Always subject to change but nice to see. This is basically the ideal flow for a firehose band. Dry air is a concern but this flow also brings moisture from Lake Michigan. For IMBYpurposes, I'd like to see a sustained 290 flow.

You made a great forecast. Nice job. CLE played catch-up throughout the entire event. Hopefully we'll see a more NW'erly wind direction next week. However, I wouldn't be surprised if next week doesn't look the same as this past. Seems like we can't get winds to turn more than 290 or so.

Congrats on the snow. Are you north of 322? Looks like a decent set-up early next week.

Yep, 4" was it around here. Bummer winds didn't come around more. On to the next...

Tough watching the band sit just a few miles north. The wrfnmm seems to be doing the best with location of the band. There is going to be a sharp cut off north to south. It should shift south some before heading up the lakeshore later tonight. Chesterland on east should jackpot. Amazing how a few degrees change in wind direction makes a huge difference with les. Good lesson learned so far... The meso models always seem be too far south with band placement.

That's an intense band sitting between 322 and 422 (just north of us). its snowing pretty well in Chagrin under weaker returns so its definitley pounding underneath those better returns. Just a few mile shift south and we are in business. CLE's advisory is for 3-5" tonight. If that band sits in one spot they will have that much in the next couple of hours. The main concern I have is ridging pushing in quicker than expected. But I'll enjoy the LES while it lasts. The strong winds, temps in the teens and low dew's will cool the water quickly.

Radar is starting to light up over the lake... right on schedule. The meso models are handling things pretty well. It will be interesting to see how things play out tonight. I think the one positive thing for us on the southern fringe as that the winds are fairly strong... which I think will reduce the backing of winds over land.

Amazing how fast ice forms in the western basin. Talk about rapid ice build-up near Toledo. The first image was from 9:56am... the next from 10:56am. That's a lot of ice just one hour. I'm sure the rest of the basin follow tonight/tomorrow with temps in the teens.

Nice band showing up on the WRF-ARW (and the NMM as well).

The meso models on tropical tidbits all show a nice bullseye over Geauga county. High bust potentail as you mentioned with the WSW winds over land. The flow does come around from 280-290 for a few hours so there is hope.

About 2" down so far and snowing nicely. Looks like we'll have a coiple more hours of synoptic snow as well.

Meso models showing an intense band developing tomorrow... Most take it pretty far south before shifting off to the ne with the backing winds.

CLE issued LES advisories for geauga, lake and ashtabula. Some of the meso models show a healthy band pushing south into southern geauga. We'll see how everything plays out but this should easily be our largest snowfall of the season. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE BY THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH.

It depends on the situation... when the low moves away winds are slower to turn WSW'erly further to the northeast. So while winds are backing across NE Ohio as ridging pushes in they stay from the W or WNW'erly longer in WNY. I think lake erie's shoreline configuration plays a role as well. Hopefully we'll get a true NW flow event at some point. The clipper and short lived LES should be our largest snow of the year in this area.

Came up with the same total. Winds were ripping so it was hard to measure. Sure felt like Winter this morning. It would really be a kick in the arse if we don't see one significant LES event on a NW flow before the ice forms... which will be happening soon. Looks like winds will turn WNW'erly for a brief time following the clipper then shift to the WSW - same as this past storm.

Yeah, 290 is the best wind direction we could ask for... Longest fetch possible. The east side on through Geauga county do best with that wind direction.

Those amounts are very realistic. Liking the fact that winds stay north of due west for most of Sunday night. The clipper and les still look good as well.

On a 290 flow that would be great. Just more moisture and we are in business.

Our prospects for snow are looking a little better. Looks like we will have a 6-9 hour window of WNW winds once the storm passes before they turn WSW. I think a more easterly track of the low would be beneficial (instead of moving NNE). Just about the same set-up behind the clipper... with a brief window of WNW winds. Better than watching a multi-day WNY burying with constant WSW winds.

There will definitely be a nice window for enhancement as the low moves to the NE. Yeah... would be nice to hold that flow for a few days. Would be great if the low slowed down north of lake ontario. Gotta love CLE - THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY WE SHOULD SEE THE RAIN SWITCH TO SNOW. ACCUMULATING WRAP AROUND SNOW IS LIKELY MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOUGH TO GET EXCITED ABOUT SNOW THIS WINTER BUT IF THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WE MAY NEED SOME SORT OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE. AS IT STANDS WILL NEED HIGH PRECIP CHANCES MOST OF THE PERIOD.

After today's model runs it appears the low might run right over CLE this weekend. Even if it were take a more easterly track there just wouldn't be enough cold air around. Looks like a brief window for wrap around lake enhanced snow before winds shift to the wsw.

Boring disco from CLE in this afternoon AFD. At least we'll have more exciting weather to track in the coming days.

A long ways out... but it does appear that winds will be shifting around throughout the event. Doubtful that one area gets hit for multiple days. I still think WNY will be the jackpot. CLE mentioned ice cover building in the western basin next week. It has really cooled off the past few days so not surprising. Still hoping that the Sunday/Monday wave can deliver some synoptic snow.

Temp was 1.4 IMBY this morning so pretty close. There is still plenty of time for the models to change which I'm sure they will. Would be great to sneak in a synoptic system in the Sunday/Monday time frame. Euro takes the weak low too far east for us.

As currently modeled... the winds would be west to wsw throughout. Basically worst case scenario if you live in Ohio. WNY would be buried once again. Lets hope things change.