NEOH

Picked up an inch + last night. No surprise as the heaviest snows stayed north once again. For some reason winds had a hard time turning NW'erly. Troughs seem to get hung up on the south lake shore. Looking upstream at the other lakes there was a well defined NW flow but just not this far south. Snowing pretty good out there now. Perhaps a couple inches down this way today if the snow can hang on.

Not sure the trough will make it very far south tonight. Seems to be stuck to the north. Hope I'm wrong of course but got to follow trends this season. Another great event just north. I will not doubt the NMM the rest of the season. It had southern lake county as the jackpot and has been spot,on.

Think we might see the lake effect gather some strength as the afternoon goes on. Looks like additional moisture is moving in the from the northwest. Can also see the trough well to the north moving south.

Talked with someone in Willougby who indicated 10" or so. Aren't the winds supposed to turn more NW'erly later tonight? Thought a trough was going to push through.

That must have been the case. Everything looked great with the wind direction... but not with the band placement. I'm guessing the western basin is mostly ice covered at this point.

Bands are forming over the lake... Just as the meso models showed. Nice sign. They should sink further south tonight before lifting northeast tomorrow.

Same here. Nice start. Now we see what happens with the les. The biggest wild card is wind direction but the dry Arctic air is also a concern. Still looks like north of here does the best but we may get a decent snowfall.

Thanks for posting the 12z runs. For some reason tropicaltidbits doesn't update. Looking at the wind direction the ARW would seem more realistic. Not just because it shows more snow for this area. Winds come around from 280-290 for a good amount of time. The NMM would imply a due west flow for a much longer period of time.

Snow is pounding out there right now. 322 to route 6 would be a great place to be for this event. We'll have to suffer with the scraps down this way

Everything seems to be coming together for a big les event. Sure wish winds would come around a little more nw'erly for those of us on the southern edge. Best guess is that the same areas that just got hit are the jackpot again.

Great info OHWeather. Check out the GFS and NAM for Monday. Seems like these kind of fit the parameters you mentioned.

Hopefully the Sunday/Monday time frame delivers for LES. Models are pretty consistent in showing winds in the 280-290 range for a fairly long period. Always subject to change but nice to see. This is basically the ideal flow for a firehose band. Dry air is a concern but this flow also brings moisture from Lake Michigan. For IMBYpurposes, I'd like to see a sustained 290 flow.

You made a great forecast. Nice job. CLE played catch-up throughout the entire event. Hopefully we'll see a more NW'erly wind direction next week. However, I wouldn't be surprised if next week doesn't look the same as this past. Seems like we can't get winds to turn more than 290 or so.

Congrats on the snow. Are you north of 322? Looks like a decent set-up early next week.

Yep, 4" was it around here. Bummer winds didn't come around more. On to the next...

Tough watching the band sit just a few miles north. The wrfnmm seems to be doing the best with location of the band. There is going to be a sharp cut off north to south. It should shift south some before heading up the lakeshore later tonight. Chesterland on east should jackpot. Amazing how a few degrees change in wind direction makes a huge difference with les. Good lesson learned so far... The meso models always seem be too far south with band placement.

That's an intense band sitting between 322 and 422 (just north of us). its snowing pretty well in Chagrin under weaker returns so its definitley pounding underneath those better returns. Just a few mile shift south and we are in business. CLE's advisory is for 3-5" tonight. If that band sits in one spot they will have that much in the next couple of hours. The main concern I have is ridging pushing in quicker than expected. But I'll enjoy the LES while it lasts. The strong winds, temps in the teens and low dew's will cool the water quickly.

Radar is starting to light up over the lake... right on schedule. The meso models are handling things pretty well. It will be interesting to see how things play out tonight. I think the one positive thing for us on the southern fringe as that the winds are fairly strong... which I think will reduce the backing of winds over land.

Amazing how fast ice forms in the western basin. Talk about rapid ice build-up near Toledo. The first image was from 9:56am... the next from 10:56am. That's a lot of ice just one hour. I'm sure the rest of the basin follow tonight/tomorrow with temps in the teens.

Nice band showing up on the WRF-ARW (and the NMM as well).

The meso models on tropical tidbits all show a nice bullseye over Geauga county. High bust potentail as you mentioned with the WSW winds over land. The flow does come around from 280-290 for a few hours so there is hope.

About 2" down so far and snowing nicely. Looks like we'll have a coiple more hours of synoptic snow as well.

Meso models showing an intense band developing tomorrow... Most take it pretty far south before shifting off to the ne with the backing winds.

CLE issued LES advisories for geauga, lake and ashtabula. Some of the meso models show a healthy band pushing south into southern geauga. We'll see how everything plays out but this should easily be our largest snowfall of the season. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE BY THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH.

It depends on the situation... when the low moves away winds are slower to turn WSW'erly further to the northeast. So while winds are backing across NE Ohio as ridging pushes in they stay from the W or WNW'erly longer in WNY. I think lake erie's shoreline configuration plays a role as well. Hopefully we'll get a true NW flow event at some point. The clipper and short lived LES should be our largest snow of the year in this area.