NEOH

CLE extended the LES advisory until 4pm Saturday. Not sure why Geauga would be included, at least the entire county as there isn't one model that brings the snow inland. Strange. NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... -- Changed Discussion -- COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE...SUPPORTING INCREASE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BUT BEST CHANCES EAST OF OUR AREA. THE WSW FLOW WILL KEEP ASHTABULA AND ERIE PA COUNTIES UNDER THE BULLSEYE FOR SNOW MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CAPE AROUND 06Z. COULD SEE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 2"/HR BRIEFLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE ADDED ASHTABULA TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. LOOKING AT AN ADDITIONAL 3-6" IN THE ADVISORY AND 6-12 IN THE WARNING.

We should hit 4" easily. Dumping snow right now. Looks like the band stalled around 422, and will probably push north as winds veer WSW. The snow won't last long though.

Picked up 3.7" last night... that was the best measurement I could come up with. Beat my expectations. Last band is pushing through now. Nice flake size.

Thanks. By the look of the map, you would think the lake is ice free with a WNW fecth. The flow will be WSW as you mentioned, around 260. At least we have the clipper snows... 2-3" seems possible.

Anyone know how CLE's snowfall map is generated? Another over done map.

Same total here. Not sure why CLE is so bullish on LE. Looks like 2-4" from the clipper... but I wouldn't count on much, if any LES. Winds don't come around WNW'erly behind the clipper... although the GFS is close for short time before shifting to the WSW. Would be nice to notch a 4" event considering yesterday's bust. Next weeks overrunning potential looks good as well. Should stay all snow in Northern Ohio. Nice to have a couple of things to look forward to after yesterday.

CLE has waved the white towel on this event understandably. I'd say on to the next but I think this was the last shot at a significant LES event. Ice cover will really increase the next couple of days which will put a cap on the moisture. You can see slush forming on the crib webcam. Maybe we'll see another inch or two as the weak bands swing back north.

It's very rare, but happens on occasion. My poorly drawn arrow was pointing at the band originating from lake michigan. That huron band won't be moving too far past the OH state line. Seems to wiggling eastward actually.

Nice view of the band that pushed through earlier... it definitely had a connection to lake MI. Winds are coming around more northerly and the connection is backing to the west. Lots of dry air out there with clear skies in the northern side of the lake.

We've had a few good bursts in Chagrin. Flake size was ok as well. The bands are migrating instead of staying in one place. To see the higher totals we'll need a band to lock on place. Considering the fetch I don't think that ice is the limiting factor. Once the fetch turns more westerly I do think the ice will play more of a role.

A band is trying to take shape over the lake. If you look at the infrared satellite there is a connection upstream to lake michigan. Here's the latest CLE snowfall map through 1am tonight. Definitely seems high outside of where the lake huron band sets up.

Congrats on the snow last night. You may be in the jackpot area today if the lake huron band sets-up over you... which is possible. Post a pic as the band comes through... I'm sure snowfall rates will be insane.

Not sure how far east of me you are... but wouldn't be surprised if you picked up a little more as the radar showed the heavier returns just to the east. I'm just west of snyder rd. off of bell.

Picked up 2.5" last night. Must have fallen pretty quickly. We'll see what today brings... not feeling really good but hopefully the radar will improve. The lake huron band will be incredible.

Les is looking good upstream. Nice sign. The band is intensifying over Lake Erie as well. Should be an interesting morning. The CLe discussion basically mirrored your thoughts for tomorrow.

This snowfall map from CLE is a lot more realistic in terms of the heaviest snowfall placement.

I'm starting to feel a little less optimistic after seeing the ice cover. Not sure how much ice will be added tonight, but any additional coverage into the central basin will really affect the moisture flux. We need winds and waves to pick up asap. 6"+ would be a win around here.

A lot of ice managed to form on the lake last night. Very impressive considering it was ice free just 2 days ago. The western basin is closed for business, and slush is pushing into the central basin. Not sure how much this will affect tonight/tomorrow as the flow is primarily out of the NW. The ice will certainly limit heat/moisture flux. Hopefully the winds can push the slush around in the western part of the central basin. But I would count on much snowfall from Lorain west as the winds will be mostly moving over ice.

Trent - One positive for the immediate lakeshore is that there is already an established band over the lake.... which should further strengthen. That should be good for a few inches as it sags south, possibly more as troughs always take their time moving through. But yeah, once the strong NW winds set-up the heavier snows will move inland. We'll probably see the "green blob" until the drier air moves in.

Picked around 1.4" last night. Great analysis OHWeather. It will be interesting to see how everything works out. As you mentioned, dry arctic air is never a good thing for seeing significant totals. Seems that you can get away with lackluster parameters when lake temps are warmer, but now that the lake has cooled, everything needs to come together perfectly to see high totals. Looking at the bufkit text output, both the GFS and NAM have winds coming around to 320 for about 9-12 hours starting tomorrow. The 320 fetch provides about 54 miles of open water in NE OH... less than optimal for heavy snows. With lake effect there are always some surprises so we'll see what happens. CLE seems to have exanded snowfall totals in their latest map. I'd be disappointed and surprised not to see 8"-10" IMBY.

It has been in the works for years... Nearing completion as per the map.

Just noticed CLE's updated snowfall map. Pretty hefty totals by Wednesday evening.

Reducing my call from the clipper to 1-2" at most. We will have to rely on the lake for our snows. I overly obsess about ice cover... but I hope the ice doesn't ruin the LES event on Wednesday.

The good news is that we won't have a calm night... otherwise there would be a solid freeze up. Drove past a small lake today and noticed there was no ice... yet a large body of water had no problem developing ice quickly. The flow on Wednesday comes around to 320-310 it appears which takes most of the western basin out of play anyways. I'm sure there will be significant ice coverage from the islands back west. Looks like snow with the clipper will be limited to 2-3" at the best.

Yeah, not sure why NE Cuyahoga is left out... CLE seems to be doing that lately. I'm pretty sure the western basin will be mostly iced over by Wednesday considering the cold temps. Lots of ice out west by Toledo...