NEOH

Trent - One positive for the immediate lakeshore is that there is already an established band over the lake.... which should further strengthen. That should be good for a few inches as it sags south, possibly more as troughs always take their time moving through. But yeah, once the strong NW winds set-up the heavier snows will move inland. We'll probably see the "green blob" until the drier air moves in.

Picked around 1.4" last night. Great analysis OHWeather. It will be interesting to see how everything works out. As you mentioned, dry arctic air is never a good thing for seeing significant totals. Seems that you can get away with lackluster parameters when lake temps are warmer, but now that the lake has cooled, everything needs to come together perfectly to see high totals. Looking at the bufkit text output, both the GFS and NAM have winds coming around to 320 for about 9-12 hours starting tomorrow. The 320 fetch provides about 54 miles of open water in NE OH... less than optimal for heavy snows. With lake effect there are always some surprises so we'll see what happens. CLE seems to have exanded snowfall totals in their latest map. I'd be disappointed and surprised not to see 8"-10" IMBY.

It has been in the works for years... Nearing completion as per the map.

Just noticed CLE's updated snowfall map. Pretty hefty totals by Wednesday evening.

Reducing my call from the clipper to 1-2" at most. We will have to rely on the lake for our snows. I overly obsess about ice cover... but I hope the ice doesn't ruin the LES event on Wednesday.

The good news is that we won't have a calm night... otherwise there would be a solid freeze up. Drove past a small lake today and noticed there was no ice... yet a large body of water had no problem developing ice quickly. The flow on Wednesday comes around to 320-310 it appears which takes most of the western basin out of play anyways. I'm sure there will be significant ice coverage from the islands back west. Looks like snow with the clipper will be limited to 2-3" at the best.

Yeah, not sure why NE Cuyahoga is left out... CLE seems to be doing that lately. I'm pretty sure the western basin will be mostly iced over by Wednesday considering the cold temps. Lots of ice out west by Toledo...

2" seems about right. Nice band is starting to take shape. Looks like it will be sliding just north of us though.

Good to hear. Anything that falls before the clipper is a bonus. Although the clipper is looking more and more like a 30 corridor on south event. Radar looks good to our west so hopefully we can all wake up to an inch or two or snow tomorrow.

Temp spiked up to 56 IMBY last night. Impressive warmth. Almost an inch or rain as well. Temps and rain have even softened the frozen ground. GFS has come around to the NAM for a more westerly flow tonight/tomorrow it seems. 280 or so looks to be the direction. Hopefully we can maintain open water for the LES following the clipper.

I'm stuck at 47 degrees. Temps will probably surge prior to the frontal passage. The bad thing is that temps have been in the mid-30's all day in western OH. That's the place that warm temps and heavy precip would have been helpful for LES purposes... but not the case unfortunately. West of Sandusky seems to be the line between warm/cold.

What an awful January day... steady rain and 39 degrees. Can't wait to get rid of this weather. OHWeather - Great detail on next week. It's going to seem like Winter for a change. Big differences between the GFS and NAM on wind direction (looking at the bufkit output). GFS has the winds coming around to anywhere between 300-280 tomorrow night/Monday so that should be good enough for those between 322 and 422. NAM keeps a due west flow at 270. Behind the clipper we should be good.

Things still look good on the models for next week. Looks like this weekends storm heads for Toledo... Almost the same track as the last storm. Fine details aside... Moisture looks to be the key ingredient in the les mix.

Yeah, that ice will have no problem melting. Still a long ways out but the flow looks solidly WNW to NW. The west side on east should be in the game unless things change significantly.

Wow... didn't take long for ice cover to increase. Hopefully this melts with the warmer temps and rain. Strong winds should disperse the ice as well. Everything still seems to be on track for a decent LES event next week.

Just read cle's disco... Almost unreadable. But yeah, thing should gets going Sunday night. Just gotta hope that the flow is favorable.

Exactly. Throw a couple inches of rain on top of 50 degree temps and I wouldn't complain. The strong winds the last few days have prevented ice forming on the western basin. Had there been calm nights I'm sure there would be a lot of ice by now. Bring the torch and rain... we should all benefit from it next week. Looking at the models now... there appears to be a 12-18 hour window for LES on Monday/Tuesday, then again after the clipper passes. It will certainly look and feel a lot more like Winter.

Nice timing on the warm-up. Slush trails just starting to form by Toledo...

Great to hear. When does your snow map come out . But seriously, it does look like a great set-up... one that we haven't seen in quite some time, especially in January. And seeing the glass half-full the rain and mild temps this weekend are a plus for open water.

Another SW wind event would be awful... Next weeks probably our last shot with open water. As you mentioned, we'll probably see the flow shift quite a bit next week but overall there looks to be periods with a favorable direction. The period after the clipper looks ideal.

What are your thoughts on the storm? What model has a better handle on things? Gotta wonder if this storm trends east like the last storm. Not that it will matter precip wise as it will be a rainer locally.

Hopefully we can get a decent set-up next week. Lots of potential as you mentioned. Today's model runs should provide a good idea of the storm track for the weekend. Regardless, we'll probably have an hour or two of mixed precip turning to rain.

Looks like the band stayed just north of this area last night. Only .4" or so. Winds turn SW'erly today and another WNY special on the way. I wonder how long it will take to ice the western basin over. Not sure how long it will last with temps in the teens.

Nice to see the snow flying again. On and off snowshowers here in Chagrin... huge flakes coming down. This area will probably be a little too far south for any appreciable snows tonight... hopefully the winds can maintain a more NW'erly flow. The 322 corridor on north should do ok.

Temp dropped to 16 IMBY last night. Hopefully we'll see some snow develop later today. Pretty bold call from CLE this far out. While it is certainly a plausible scenario, the models have been a little off to say the least. MODELS DID NOT AGREE ON THE SOLUTION OF THIS STORM TRACK ABOUT 36 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THEY APPEAR TO HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT AND HOPEFULLY WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE DURATION. TRACK BRINGS SURFACE LOW TO THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY NIGHT FORCING WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SNOW SATURDAY MORNING CHANGING QUICKLY OVER TO ALL RAIN. I CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE PRECIPITATION COULD START OUT AS A MIX BUT WILL LEAVE IT AS A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN DURING THE DAY SO WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE.