NEOH

You should have stayed home... but glad to hear you made it back to athens. Yep, euro seems like it is slow to catch on to trends, but doesn't vary too much once it does. Consistency seems to be the key.

31/31 IMBY just a little south of you. Hopefully we can hold on to all snow. I noticed the heavier returns to the west/southwest. Each time they move over flake size increases along with intensity. Keep waiting for the mix to move in but not so. Winds are out of the east... have to wonder if that is keeping the cold air locked in place. Just measure over 19" on my deck. The surprise LES the other day made a nice base.

Good to hear. Keep that junk down south.

No doubt... radar looks great. Temp just jumped to 31. Not sure how much more we will climb. Looks like a mostly snow event... perhaps a brief mix but not much. As Trent mentioned, this is some of the heaviest snow we've had in quite some time. It just seems so much more substantial than fluff. Huge flakes and heavy snow right now. Good tiimes...

Just noticed that CLE reported 4.4" in the evening climate report. Not sure but that seems awfully low based on obs and radar.

Awesome storm so far. Snowing heavily again. The dry slot was short lived and the radar looks great. If this keeps up I wouldn't be surprised to see double digits by midnight. Looks like we are approaching a period where mixing might take place... but radar would indicate that is still well to the south... not sure it will make it this far north but you never know,

Just dumping out there. Will be closing in on 5.5" soon. This isn't hard to measure either. Hopefully CLE can get an accurate measurement of cement. Don't want to jinx anything... but wondering if we don't stay all snow, with perhaps a brief period of mixing. Temp is stuck at 29/28 IMBY. Radar doesn't look great to the southwest but it keeps redeveloping just south here.

Heaviest snows so far coming down now. Pic doesn't quite capture it well...

5" already? Radar must not be picking up the snow in YNG.

It's coming down outside... definitely exceeding my expecations so far. Flake size changes with the heavier returns but the size is large now. Radar is filling in to the west as well. I haven't measured but eyeballing looks like 3"+. Whatever happens later won't be as painful as this a great start to the storm.

Thanks for the info. Looks like the bleeding stopped on the 12z NAM. Hopefully the GFS follows suit. Yeah, we are riding a fine line with this storm. One thing going for the lakeshore is the ice cover on the lake which tends to keep the areas near the lakeshore from mixing too much... especially for areas from CLE on west. It might be painful around here for a few hours. It's snowing nicely out there and flake size has increased. Closing in on 2 inches already. The gradient will be extreme near MBY. Hopefully we find ourselves on the good side. It would be tough watching lake erie jackpot while areas just south of the lake mix then dryslot. A blend of the euro, gfs and nam gives this area a decent storm by CLE's standards.

Trent - I was just looking at the bufkit data and the nam has 13" for CLE, while the gfs has 9". Maybe that's old data?

I'm riding the euro on this one. Although any solution is plausible at this point. Just no consistency in the models. It's never easy around here when it comes to large synoptic storms.

Great forecast ohweather. No question we will be on the southern edge of the heaviest snows. Time to watch how things play out. Hopefully the mixing line stays south... It's going to be a very close call.

Oh yeah, I forgot we sweat the dry slot as well. We need the stop the bleeding north that's for sure. Who knows, if we stay north of the pivot perhaps that absurd 20" the NAM shows will verify. The funny thing about this storm as there is major bust potential either way... good and bad. Still like where we are but the north shifts have to stop.

Yeah, good thing we had some wiggle room... but that is about maxed out. Not sure what the euro has for temps but the lakeshore counties should be all snow. Heaviest snows fall north of the RN/SN line so we are still in a good spot. The WTOD always make its presence known but I can't see it getting north of Mansfield to YNG line... barring any more shifts NW of course. As it stands now, it will be a paste storm which we haven't had in a long time. I'm think 10-12" in the northern most counties with a sharp decrease south of here. Where's OHWeather's forecast?!

Nice model runs last night/this morning. CLE's AFD offers very little in terms of a forecast. Sounds like they are relying on CIPS. And, want to wait to see where the heavy snow is falling to determine where the heaviest snow will fall. Could be the biggest synoptic storm in quite some time for this area. Double digits seem quite likely,

SREF continues to improve. 10" mean last run. We'll see what the models do overnight. Euro has been steady. Seems like we are in a good spot right now.

SREF plumes have a tight clustering of 6-12". If some lake erie moisture gets thrown in it could boost totals near the shoreline.

Cool. C'mon, doesn't a white knuckle drive through the hills sound fun?

Watch issued by CLE - If there was more open water to work with this storm would be a great candidate for lake enhancement with NE'erly wind turning Northerly. WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 8 INCHES IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND 8 TO 10 INCHES ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. * SNOW...SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. * PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL FROM MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

Thanks for the info. You coming home this weekend?

Cleveland sports fans and snow weenie's often suffer the same fate. While I feel pretty good about this storm given the set-up, I'll curb my enthusiasm until tonights model runs. I believe all of the players will be fully sampled at that point. Perhaps they have been already. Its not often we find ourselves with a little wiggle room on either side so that's a good thing. Not sure a drier solution verifies unless the storm heads further south.

Yeah, I saw that as well. CLE gets too caught up with one model run. Given model performance this year you would think they wouldn't get so specific this far out. As OHWeather mentioned, I think there's a cap on how far north this can move with the vortex over hudson bay. I like where we sit at this point.

Took quite a few measurements around 7:30 and was in the 7-8" range as well. Snow has lightened up considerably now. Still coming down though. Nice snowpack out there. If the weekend storm can deliver, we'll have one of the deepest snowpacks in quite some time.