NEOH
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Now that is just over a week since the cold set in here are the updated lake temps. Ice has formed near the shoreline around the western basin.
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The 12z WRF paints a snowy picture for lake, northern geauga and ashtabula. Once again the heaviest snows will be northeast of here, but they do show a little snow down this way.
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It will be interesting to see how far south the band comes. The wrf-arw is the southern most at this point.
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My total includes an inch with the first wave yesterday afternoon, and I measured another 4.6" this morning.
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5.6" total from the clipper. The radar looked good when I went to bed... wonder if the heaviest snow fell south of here.
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CLE upgraded the Northeastern counties to a WSW. Looks like the back edge is about to push through. A nice moderate snow with the first batch. We'll see what happens tonight.
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Yep, out with the LES and in with the synoptic. Snowing lightly in Chagrin under the weak returns. Must be mod to heavy under the better returns.
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We are overdue for a decent synoptic event... but knock on every piece of wood you can find. Just hope the low stays a little stronger before it starts to fizzle out.
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What are you thinking with the clipper, 4-6?
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The band really consolidated as its pushing off to the northeast with the backing winds. Picked up a quick inch in a short amount of time. Still coming down hard. It will be nice to get some synoptic snow tonight for a change. Relying on LES for snowfall is always tricky.
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Yeah. Not feeling good about anything significant at this point as time is running out. The limited fetch can't make up for the dry air and strong winds.
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The snow has shut off here in the Chagrin area. Looks like bands are trying to form on upstream connections. We'll see what the afternoon brings. It's awfully windy out there... lots of blowing snow.
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Right around 3" so far. Nice start.
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With a 300 or so fetch the wind will be traveling over 40-44 degree water.. That's a lot of instability. Not sure t'snow'is in the cards though.
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You are in a great spot for this event... and should jackpot. Great thing about the Erie PA area is that it does well with a variety of wind directions. I'm actually looking at buying some proper in south ripley ny.... Hope to make that happen by next winter.
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Northeast Ohio is way to populated for you.
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The 12z high-res models looked great. Nice sign.
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Looking forward to seeing what the next couple of days bring snowfall wise . After a week of cold weather we will finally get a more favorable wind direction. The NAM has a consistent 300 flow, while the GFS is a little more NW'erly. Not the best for a long fetch but moisture looks good. The one negative will be the wind speed.
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Model trends haven't been that great for the weekend. The low has really weakened... and ridging looks to push in quickly behind it. 1 -2" seems possible. Hopefully we can cash-in at some point next week.
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Speaking of the lake cooling off. It will be interesting to compare lake temps another week from now. If the cold pans out the way the models are showing, I wouldn't be surprised to see some ice later next week in the western basin. Current temps --
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Looks like we will be sitting on the LES sidelines until later in the weekend. Bummer to start the season with an unfavorable flow. It will feel like winter though!
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There are actually 2 Ohio threads. It has been that way for awhile. We are kind of stuck in the middle here I guess.
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Personally, I'd like to cash in early to maximize what's left of the warmth in Lake Erie. Temps are already hovering around 40 in the western basin/pond. Look forward to see what happens next week.
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The long range is starting to look interesting. It will be nice to get back to a colder pattern. Plenty of time for changes but there's a pretty strong signal for WSW flow later next week which isn't favorable for LES in most of the OH snowbelt. Hoping that changes.
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Even with the nw'erly winds the bands tend to be moving up the lakeshore almost from a southwesterly direction. I wonder if ridging is pushing in more quickly than expected? The ground is starting to whiten up here in south Russell.
