NEOH

With a 300 or so fetch the wind will be traveling over 40-44 degree water.. That's a lot of instability. Not sure t'snow'is in the cards though.

You are in a great spot for this event... and should jackpot. Great thing about the Erie PA area is that it does well with a variety of wind directions. I'm actually looking at buying some proper in south ripley ny.... Hope to make that happen by next winter.

Northeast Ohio is way to populated for you.

The 12z high-res models looked great. Nice sign.

Looking forward to seeing what the next couple of days bring snowfall wise . After a week of cold weather we will finally get a more favorable wind direction. The NAM has a consistent 300 flow, while the GFS is a little more NW'erly. Not the best for a long fetch but moisture looks good. The one negative will be the wind speed.

Model trends haven't been that great for the weekend. The low has really weakened... and ridging looks to push in quickly behind it. 1 -2" seems possible. Hopefully we can cash-in at some point next week.

Speaking of the lake cooling off. It will be interesting to compare lake temps another week from now. If the cold pans out the way the models are showing, I wouldn't be surprised to see some ice later next week in the western basin. Current temps --

Looks like we will be sitting on the LES sidelines until later in the weekend. Bummer to start the season with an unfavorable flow. It will feel like winter though!

There are actually 2 Ohio threads. It has been that way for awhile. We are kind of stuck in the middle here I guess.

Personally, I'd like to cash in early to maximize what's left of the warmth in Lake Erie. Temps are already hovering around 40 in the western basin/pond. Look forward to see what happens next week.

The long range is starting to look interesting. It will be nice to get back to a colder pattern. Plenty of time for changes but there's a pretty strong signal for WSW flow later next week which isn't favorable for LES in most of the OH snowbelt. Hoping that changes.

Even with the nw'erly winds the bands tend to be moving up the lakeshore almost from a southwesterly direction. I wonder if ridging is pushing in more quickly than expected? The ground is starting to whiten up here in south Russell.

Tough to say at this point... but the GFS looks cold with prospects for snow. Might have a better idea by the weekend.

BUF sums up the model trends pretty well... although a WNW wind is better for us than WNY. Over the past 24 hours model guidance has become decidedly less impressive on the lake effect setup, with boundary layer flow more WNW, lesssynoptic scale moisture, and a faster ending on Monday. If these model trends continue, the potential for significant lake effect snow may be off the table. That said, there is plenty of time for model guidance to trend back in the other direction on these subtle details with this event still 4 days away.

Yeah. Today's 12z GFS would be spectacular. Lock that in please.

Snowing fairly hard in South Russell. The band is on the move though. Sure feels like Winter out there.

Nice to see an OHWeather snow forecast. It has been too long.

Its hard to tell the direction the trees fell... although it seems they fell from a south to north direction. A little further south on Synder around Kenston schools power poles were down as well. Just east of the picture DTA posted is Wood Acre trail that had significant damage which continued on east through the Auburn lakes community. Looking forward to a seeing some flakes late this week.

Lots of damage at the corner of Snyder Rd and East Washington in Bainbridge. Trees and power lines down all over the place. There seemed to be distinct path on east down East Washington. Wonder if there was a brief spin-up in that area.

It was a pretty wild storm. Impressive winds... it was loud outside with the combo or rain and high winds. Looks like the worst of it was south of here. We went from extremely dry to wet in a short amount of time.

What a Fall we have had so far. Too bad the leaf color is so dull this year. Lake temps are still in the low 60's. I'm looking forward to a more active weather pattern... and the long range looks cold. Maybe a white Halloween?

Picked up .35" of rain last night... most rain I've had in quite some time. At least it will keep the dust down. I can't remember the last time is was this dry. Back to mild temps, blue skies and sun.

What an awesome stretch of weather we've had. August felt more like late September. It has been awfully dry... just 1.30" for the month IMBY. The leaves are dropping like crazy. Much earlier than last year.

After two consecutive mornings with lows in the 40's I'm looking forward to the heat.

It was 36 imby yesterday morning with some frost on the rooftops. Not near as cold this morning. Hopefully that is the last of the temps in the 30's for awhile. Looking forward to the warmth this week.