NEOH

Waiving the white flag on this one. Radar is unimpressive with a bit of a sucker hole over the area... Not to mention the snow already dissipating on the nw side. 2-3 may be a stretch.

Check out the mesoscale disco in the storm thread. And yeah... the HRRR is reeling back to the west.

That's a pretty healthy precip shield moving north. Seems to be favoring the eastern row of counties though. Wonder if the precip shield will condense or stay fairly ragged throughout the event.

Surprised the lakefront hasn't flipped over. CLE was reporting light snow. Starting to accumulate here. We are at a higher elevation... but not sure that makes a difference.

I don't think it's going to be too much longer before the flip to snow. The precip turned over to mainly snow under the heavier returns which moved north. Radar is filling in the south now. Edit: As of 1:45 its all snow IMBY. There is a good chunk of moisture coming up from southern ohio. Looks like it will make a run for the eastern counties.

Heavy ice pellets in Chagrin. Wonder how long the change to snow will take.

Thanks for the info. The low looks good down south. Wonder if that could be enough to slow down the shortwave. Oh well. This storm has been a mess to track. Edit: 34/33 IMBY. That didn't take long.

Bummer. Can you elaborate? Edit: 12z NAM's weren't that bad. That low take a sudden jog east though.

Nice forecast. The models continue to waffle back and forth on snowfall amounts...but the trend pretty clear that areas to the east will see the heaviest snows. Where's that last minute NW shift when we need it?! Didn't take very long to melt all the snow so we will be starting fresh. Even the piles are almost gone at this point. Look forward to seeing what happens later today. What is causing the the low to shift to the EC when it hits PA... The northern stream energy pushing down?

Nice view up there! Even better not to see ice. The southerly winds have probably pushed to the canadian shoreline. The snow is just about melted here and the rain tonight should finish things off. This has been a strange storm to track. Thought it was going to be a true apps runner but has evolved into a weak low riding a cold front. We'll see what happens.

CLE issued a WSW. Surprised they are calling for a 1/4 inch of ice. That would explain the lower snowfall totals. 6-8" of system snow on top of that much ice wouldn't be good. ..WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. A glaze of ice up to a quarter of inch is expected Friday afternoon, then accumulating snow later Friday and Friday night. Total snow accumulations will average 3 to 6 inches outside of the snowbelt and 6 to 8 inches in the snowbelt. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Pennsylvania and northeast Ohio.

Its not often we hope for a NW bump with a storm... usually hoping for the opposite. I kind of like where we sit at this point. Given the dynamics its hard to believe we aren't seeing a stronger storm on the models... but I'm no meteorologist. In addition to the track and intensity the models seems to be expanding and contracting the precip shield with every run. I have very little confidence either way. Just a guess but I'd go with 5-8" for areas east of 71 in northeast ohio. I do think that lake enahncement will boost totals in the lakeshore counties. Hoping we don't waste a lot of the precip on sleet.

Clouds cleared out enough to get a decent view of the lake. Lots of open water out there. Hopefully lake enhancement can boost what looks to be our dwindling snowfall potential.

The snow cover is starting to get down to patches. Temps held around 47 IMBY all night. Surprised to see CLE at 56 this morning... that's a pretty large temp spread. Speaking of spreads, here are estimated snowfall totals from the latest model runs (estimated from the snowfall maps) -- GFS - 6-8" Euro - 3-5" RGEM - 6-8" NAM3k - 8-10" NAM12k - 2-4"

Might want to head up before late afternoon. I'd imagine after 3 or so it will start to get snowy.

The ice will move around quite a bit so lake enhancement will help. CLE seems to think the only open water is out east but that's not the case. We aren't dealing with a solidly frozen lake.

And there's the 18z with a nice thump. Huge difference's with the various models. OHWeather might want to wait until after the storm to post his snowfall map. Edit: Just noticed CLE issued a watch for the Central counties on Northeast... WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches, with localized amounts up to 12 inches are possible. Ice accumulations of one tenth to around a quarter of an inch are possible. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Pennsylvania and north central and northeast Ohio.

Ha! You jinxed the storm DTA. Crazy trends with the models. We'll see what happens with the overnight runs but definitely looking like a less than impressive event after looking at 12z. Still a decent storm but if trends continue down this path we'll be too far west for anything appreciable. The melting has started. Probably won't be much snow left by Friday morning.

And just like that the 12z comes east... significantly. It's going to be fun watching the models the next few days. If I had to guess, I'd say west of 71 in Ohio jackpots while we mix for quite some time. Looks like the one thing we want is the low to dig as far south as possible before it turns northeast.

Good disco from the WPC on the Friday/Saturday storm. Interesting that the euro jumped so far west last night... it probably has been the least consistent model with this storm but hard to ignore it.

Its nice to have a wet snow for a change. It should freeze fairly solid tonight. Surprised that the 12z euro came east with the storm. Pretty good agreement in the models at this point. As you mentioned, lets hope this doesn't slide too far SE although we could use a nudge. Only 4 more days of model watching.

We've seen our share of ridiculous clown maps but this one is a gem. It will be fun to revisit this at the end of the week.

The signal is definitely there. Just need to get within 48 hours or so before confidence builds. Hopefully this doesn't slide to the SE of here.

CLE calling for 2-5" tonight in the higher elevations. We'll torch for a few days... Wonder how much/if any of the snow will be left by Friday. There's a decent snow pack but very fluffy. Next weekend looks interesting. 5 days out but nice to see storm potential.

About the same total here. I noticed that the snow seemed to pick-up a bit as you get east of 306. Looks like the ice cover is becoming extensive.