NEOH

What a day of weather... currently under a severe t'storm warning and winter weather advisory. CLE calling for 5-9"... which seems a bit bullish. But BUF increased the totals for their area as well. With the higher winds speeds upslope locals such as ours can do well. A rare event where areas south of 322 will do better. edit: They don't normally send spotter emails before. It just hasn't snowed significantly for so long they probably assumed no one was paying attention to the weather.

Just received an automated email from CLE NWS - Dear Snow Spotters, Happy New Year! Some of you may have had the pleasure of waking up to 50 degrees and thunderstorms this morning with some small hail and a couple rumbles of thunder. We may even get another round of thunderstorms this evening ahead of a cold front! Then, everything changes over to snow and we will get our first lake effect snow outbreak of the season as temperatures drop into the 20s and 30s. That crazy Ohio and Pennsylvania weather... This email just serves as a notice to dig out those snow boards out and get them ready for what has already been an interesting week of weather. I think everyone will see some snow tonight and into tomorrow morning. (Perhaps only a half an inch at best for you NW Ohio folks, sorry!) Then, all eyes turn to the snow belt of NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania for what could be 2 days full of snow.

Yep. The Chautauqua ridge looks to be ground zero. An upstream connection would certainly help around here. Wrf's are much better than the NAM.

What a nice spring... I mean mid-winter morning out there with temps in the 50's. Even has that spring smell to the air. Tomorrow will feel and look much different thankfully. Not sure what to think about the LES potential. Looks like the best moisture will stay NE of the area in W NY again. With a short fetch (300 degrees or so) we need decent moisture for appreciable snowfall. Any way it will be nice to get back to winter for a few days. And just having the grass/mud covered will be a win.

I was out around 5:45am and it was icy. Finally some snow to track. Pretty good wind direction for our area this week. Only question is moisture... as we've seen this season the better moisture is in W NY. A few inches of snow would certainly be a huge improvement though.

I was looking at past seasonal snowfall and wow what a winter 2010/2011 was. A widespread 120" - 160" in Geauga county. With around 140" locally. I believe that was a weak LaNina winter. You can tell by the snowfall distribution in the snowbelt that WNW/NW winds delivered much of the LES.

2018 was a wet year -- #4 for CLE. Temp spiked to 58 last night with high winds and heavy rain. Not the best way to ring in the new year. The long range continues to look bleak. Hopefully we start to see some changes soon.

The snowfall departure is starting to add up... and the long range doesn't look great at all (at least on today's model runs). Should this stretch of awful weather persist into mid-January it would take a special run to just get to normal snowfall. We rely on the lake for much of our snow so when it turns cold we won't have too many shots at LES given lake temps are already in the mid 30's.

No complaints here! It has been a muddy mess since the ground isn't frozen. What an awful December it has been. We'll see what January brings but the early part of the month isn't looking good.

Surprised to wake up to a winter wonderland. Beautiful outside. Feels like winter again. Hopefully the snow drought is over now.

Looks like band of snow on the backside of the low will set-up east of the state line - good for PA and NY... bummer for Ohio.

Amazing that there's a juicy storm coming out of the south with a great track and no cold air to work with! Guessing an inch or two on the backside.

That's a good question. If any Winter could pull it off it may be this one. The early cold shot was enough to significantly cool the western basin to the 33-35 range. If the cold comes as forecast, it won't take long to form ice cover. So, by the time we have ideal set-ups for LES events the fetch would be very limited at least for Northeast ohio.

Didn't look good. Backed on the snowfall. Shame to waste such a good storm track for Ohio. Looking more and more like a nice cold rain.

The 12z Euro throws Northeast Ohio a bone for the weekend. It's an ideal storm track for snow around here... cold air is the big question.

Agreed. Looks like our snow cover stretch will come to an end today. We didn't have much but it lasted a long time. Yeah, so much for the epic storm. Hopefully we'll get our shot sometime later this Winter.

Temp dropped to 8 IMBY Sunday morning. Was nice to finally see some sun yesterday though. These cold overnight temps are brutal on the lake water temps. If its going to be boring I wouldn't mind some milder weather to go with it.

Measured about the same here. Still snowing lightly. We've just not been able to get decent set-up when we've had a NW wind direction. Temps are more than cold enough but moisture and shear have been the issue.

Yeah... it will be fun to revisit this. The 06z gfs has the Thanksgiving 1950 storm look to it. If only!

One of the better fantasy storms I've seen on the 12z run of the euro yesterday. 06z GFS now has a similar set-up for in the 12/15 time frame.

It sure felt that way. What a dreary month. Looking good for 3-4" this afternoon/tonight. Hopefully the waa snows can develop a little further to the northwest and push through. Models have it developing overhead and moving southeast.

I noticed the high-res models seem to be a little juiced lately. 12z nam scaled back quite a bit from 6z. We'll see what the WRF's show a little later.

Kind of weird to see the snow falling after yesterday's warmth. I have to admit 60 felt nice. But now snowing pretty good in Chagrin. Looks like a couple of inches possible tonight.

Bummer the LES never strengthened last night. Not often we get a perfect fetch of 290 for such a prolonged period. Had other parameters been better it could have been really good. Oh well... I guess its a good reminder that not every events pans out. Hopefully we'll have a few more shots while the lake is relatively warm.

CLE mentioned that the trough has become diffuse. Looks like wherever the heaviest/convergence band sets up it will stay there awhile since the flow doesn’t shift much. Hoping that isn’t too far to the east.