NEOH

12z euro is onboard for a few inches from the weekend storm. Short range models are as well. This will be a tricky forecast for CLE.

Pretty rare to get a storm track like that. Now that we get one temps are very marginal. Ugh. Hopefully we can flip to all snow and snag a few inches.

Well that clears things up... :) A digging upper level trough will move quickly east across the western half of the United States. The trough will deepen in response to amplifying ridge along the West Coast by Monday night. The positively tilted trough will rotate a potent positive vorticity maximum through the middle Mississippi Valley region by Monday causing cyclogenesis to occur over Texas. The surface low will then track northeast through the Ohio Valley Monday night. The warm sector will remain to the south of the forecast area and ample moisture will stream north with the system Monday morning from southwest to northeast. A mix of rain/snow will take place across the area Monday into Monday night. 850 mb temperatures are expected to fall from around -6 degrees C to around -10 degrees C by Sunday morning. As the next system approaches Monday morning, mid level temperatures will warm back to just above freezing across the southern half of the forecast area. Will need to monitor temperatures through the column for the possibility for freezing precipitation in the overrunning precipitation threat. As low moves northeast of the area Monday night, cold air advection returns in the mid levels as 850 mb temperatures drop back to around -6 degrees C.

Looks like Lake and Ashtabula counties did pretty well with the brief LES last night. Perhaps we will see a burst of snow later this afternoon as the winds come around... but I'm not confident in the wind turning northwesterly enough for this area. It has been a pretty quiet first 10 days of December. CLE's snowfall deficit is now 3". Next week looks active which is good to see. The euro has a nice storm in the Tuesday time frame.

Just noticed 3-6" is in the forecast. I've been traveling this week so haven't paid much attention. Should be an interesting flight in this evening.

CLE finished November with a -5 temp departure. Given the cold temps you would think there would have been a snowfall surplus but we are running a small deficit. Hopefully things pick back up again.

Welcome back. I haven't been paying much attention to the current storm... didn't realize there was any snow potential. It does look there is a possibility for a couple of inches. You'll just have to take a short road trip from Summit county northeast into Geauga.

The snow is down to patches imby. Certainly has felt like Winter over the past week. CLE's monthly temp departure to date is -9.0... which is really impressive given that area tends to run warm.

11.1" storm total IMBY. Pretty tight snowfall gradient from west to east. Rt. 306 seemed to be the dividing line. Nice to kick off the season with a LES event. The early season events seem to always have a WSW wind direction so it was great to have one with a NW wind for a change.

Measured 10” storm total. Definite snow increase as you head east of 306. Looks amazing out there.snowmis redeveloping on a wnw fetch. Hopefully a few more inches before ridging builds in.

Its been dumping here so I didn't head home. If this band can lock-in this afternoon we'll have no problem hitting OHWeather's forecast.

That sounds like quite a bit more than what I've had at my office (near the high school). We tend to get more out east but I'm heading home shortly and will check. That band is starting to settle in one location which could make for an interesting afternoon if the winds don't shift much.

There have been a couple of those bursts here in Chagrin this morning.. Looks like we got another inch or so since earlier this morning. There has been a lot of movement to the bands so far. The main band over the central basin is migrating east... hopefully that can lock-in for awhile over the east side. Snowing pretty heavily right now.

Measured 4" this morning. Warm ground definitely kept accumulations down on the paved surfaces. Nice band moving into the eastern burbs and geauga. Almost looks like a meso low forming in the central basin.

Currently 38 IMBY. Tough getting temps to drop with the lake temps in the low 50's. At this point it looks like it will be early evening before we flip to snow.

Nice forecast OHWeather. Looks like everything is still on track... although it seems the 06z models have shifted a bit north but that is probably just noise at this point. Precip wise the average among the models seems to be .75" - 1". Hopefully we don't waste too much on liquid. Temp is down to 37 IMBY.

I can't even find the snowfall reports on the CLE NWS site anymore. It was an unusual pattern to how the bands set-up.

Same here. The LES was very localized it seems... focused up towards northern geauga and lake. On to next week.

Temp down to 38 imby. Winds have gone northerly and you can already see a plume of lake enhancement precip heading toward CLE on radar. Edit: Snow starting in Chagrin... a little earlier than I thought it would.

Good stuff OHWeather. 2-4" seems like a good call for this area. The wrf suite shows .4" - .5" of precip over Geauga county for the event (some of which is rain).

Thanks for the forecast OHWeather. These early season LES events are always interesting with the extreme parameters. The wind direction/short duration will definitely be the limiting factors. 1-3" seems reasonable. The best wind direction for this area is in 280-300 range -- this direction includes a long fetch from the western basin. Next week looks interesting as well for a potential long duration LES event. The CMC has had this feature the past couple of runs.... now that would be something to see.

Still a long way out but the 12z runs were as good as they get around here in early November.

Good to see you drop in. I was checking the CLE NWS site and couldn't find any snow reports. The end of the week certainly looks interesting. It would be ideal to get a decent LES set-up while the lake is still warm. Some 40 degree temps already appearing in the western basin.

Well that was a surprise to see this morning. Measured 1.5". Elevation definitely helped.

CLE will finish October around +4 for the month. Two months in a row with a big positive temp departure. With today's rain October will likely be near normal precip wise. Looks like our first shot at a few flakes over the weekend. Trees are mostly bare outside of the oaks -- not sure if the dryness from mid-August on affected them but this is as early as I can remember in this area.