NEOH

Instead of insulting others... why don't you add some value and post your thoughts.

Care to elaborate on what's funny?

Passing along a summary of Goldman Sachs investor call where 1,500 companies dialed in... The key economic takeaways were: 50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year. 70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected. Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter. The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal. Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly. Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system. There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load. China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover. Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%. S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall. There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year. In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US. Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history. There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.

Looks like we can probably put the shovels away for the season. What an absolute torch it has been at CLE... December - +2.5 January - +8.2 February - +2.5 March (as of 3/10) - + 8.7 CLE's snowfall for the season is at 30.1" (-26.9" departure).

The event definitely shut down earlier than anticipated. I thought it was going to heavier Friday night. We managed to hit double digits down south of you. I thought Chesterland did well but apparently I was mistaken. Mayfield and 306 almost always has more than South Russell.

The lake effect fluff we had over the weekend will be long gone by the end of the week unfortunately. Looks like a chance of snow Friday/Saturday but nothing significant. Have a good trip.

That's a feast or famine location for sure. Anywhere north of Rt. 90 lacks elevation. You can do pretty well in that area with a WSW wind direction though.

Snowing nicely in Chagrin as additional snow is developing south of the main band. My total is a little under yours but I didn't get a good measurement yesterday. Looks like the main show will be tonight.

We've had a good few bursts of snow here in Chagrin. Great flake size under the heavier returns. It has been interesting that the best snows have been well south of the snowbelt today. I think a contributing factor to the lack of organization today is the time of the year -- same sun angle as mid October. Bands tend to get disrupted during the daytime with early and late season events. You can almost see a shore parallel trying to form on radar now. I'm not good at picking up on troughs so I'll take your word that there is one to the south of here. Don't surface troughs usually push further south of the lakeshore when the waters are cold? Seems like they tend to hug the shoreline earlier in the season when the waters are warmer. CLE mentions tomorrow morning and afternoon for the greatest impacts at KCLE.

That's definitely high. They must have measured a drift. Problem is that the ground was warm/wet prior to the snow, and with the high winds blowing the snow around its not easy to measure.

Definitely tough to measure with the strong winds. I'm going with 3.5" but that is probably not very accurate. Speaking of the winds... I wonder how much impact the strong winds will have on the lake effect bands as residence time will be greatly reduced. Good to see the lake effect starting to fire up. Ideally we need a wind directing in the 280-300 range for max snowfall in this area. Looks like we may be a bit too far south for the heaviest stuff.

Just issued by CLE - afternoon models all on track for a decent event. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations through Saturday of 6 to 12 inches with locally higher amounts possible where lake effect snow bands persists and across the higher terrain. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph Thursday and Thursday night with blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga, Ashtabula Inland and Ashtabula Lakeshore counties. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Saturday. In particular, periods of heavy lake effect snow are expected from mid morning Thursday through Thursday night and again Friday night into Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and or evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will transition to lake enhanced snow this evening with moderate snow and amounts of 3 to locally 5 inches tonight. An additional 4 to 8 inches is likely from lake effect snow Thursday and Thursday night. Lake effect snow will be ongoing across the region through Saturday. Wind chill temperatures will be in the single digits through Saturday morning.

Thanks for the forecast OHWeather. This looks to be much more significant than I anticipated. Sounds like the 322 to Rt. 6 corridor could be the jackpot area.

While I'm ready for Spring I wouldn't complain about a significant event. Not looking for a couple of sloppy inches at this point of the season. The way this storm is trending the western burbs of CLE may actually see a decent synoptic snowfall... with a northeast wind off the cold lake the lakeshore areas could see a quick changeover.

What a weekend with the sunshine and mild temps. At this point of the season I'm ready to turn the page to Spring. The longer days are great. Not looking forward to a couple of days of rain. Whatever snow we get on the backside will not be pretty with the wet ground.

Yeah it has been an ok stretch. The one thing that stands out is that just about every snow has been wet... which has made for nice scenery. 2-4" seems reasonable tonight. Its mid-Feb and this is really the first arctic front of the dwindling winter season.

Same amount here.... although there was definitely some compaction. When I looked at the radar before going to bed I figured there would be more. Should add another 2-4" today/tonight though.

CLE is calling for 2-5" which is a fairly broad range... they must be accounting for the snowfall gradient from north to south. No bad trends in the models overnight which was good to see.

Cautious optimism for a decent snow event. Biggest concern is how far north the WTOD gets. It usually has no problem push up to the Rt. 30 corridor. The far northern tier of counties look pretty good at this point, but given the way this winter has gone anything is possible. .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure moves northeast up the Ohio River Valley to western PA Wednesday night. Expect precipitation to continue through the night. Difficult portion of the forecast is the temperature profile across the region. Every model has the rain/snow/mixed precipitation line in slightly different locations through Wednesday night causing much uncertainty to accumulations of snow and ice. Just know that the Thursday morning commute will be impacted with a good bet that portions of the region will be under a winter weather advisory.

Definitely one of the snowiest days we’ve had this winter. Measured about the same. Winds seems to be backing now so we may get another few hours of snow before it pushes off to the northeast.

Yep. Moisture from Huron is definitely helping. The radar is looking good with the main band on the west side and another forming in eastern Cuyahoga through western Geauga.

Thanks for the forecast OHWeather. Picked up around an inch last night. Snow is really picking up now and the radar looks great back to the west.

These messy set-ups typically deliver poor results. That said, 2-4" seems reasonable but guidance has been backing down as you mentioned. I'm not putting to much stock in any particular model solution at this point though.

It was all sleet and freezing rain last night... no snow at all. It will be interesting to see what happens tonight/Friday. A low tracking through WV into PA is usually a great track for Ohio. The models are all over the place with snowfall... no agreement at all. I'd be more optimistic but given the way this season has gone my expectations are low.

Great disco from CLE LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... By Thursday, a deep and elongated upper-level trough moves east across the Great Plains, producing strong southerly flow with a Gulf of Mexico connection. This will result in a moisture-rich low pressure system developing over the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night and steadily deepening as it progresses northeast across the Tennessee/Ohio Valley on Thursday and to the New England coast by Friday or Saturday, depending on which model you look at. Given the high moisture content, strong synoptic-scale forcing, and favorable surface low track southeast of our forecast area (something that could certainly change though), this has the potential to be our best snow-producer of the winter for areas outside of the snowbelt, an achievement that won`t be very difficult due to the lackluster winter so far. Snow and ice will both be on the table for Wednesday night through early Friday depending on the surface temperatures and vertical temperature. It`s important to note that while there is potential for a significant winter storm to impact the region, there is still a lot of uncertainty. Model guidance are still producing widely-varying low pressure tracks which could greatly alter the forecast. For now, it will be important to monitor the forecast for this time period and planahead if you have travel plans.