NEOH

Last nights model trends weren't good. Although, the Euro improved and moved north while the others were drier and more southern with the low track. Pretty amazing the amount of changes this close. I think OHWeather's forecast of 6 -12" is a safe bet. The backside/lake enhancement when winds turn northerly is what we need for the higher amounts. It's pretty rare to get a true lake huron connection but this is a good set-up, and it usually doesn't disappoint.

I would look at total precip vs. the snowfall maps. I think the euro was in the .60" range -- so that's a straight 10/1 ratio which won't be the case.

I was thinking it was a bit bullish as well. But ratio's will improve significantly as the storm passes. We'll have a due north wind trajectory so moisture from Lake Huron will be coming over the lake as well. The fluff on Sunday will add up quickly.

Good stuff -- WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 15 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Pennsylvania and north central and northeast Ohio. * WHEN...From late Friday night through late Sunday night. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

Nice to see the Euro come north somewhat. Thought the other models would cave to the Euro but it didn't happen. Despite a more northward track it looks it cut back qpf. A blend of the models isn't a bad scenario for Northern Ohio. Not a bad 12z run across the board.

The only caveat for our area is how much lake enhancement contributes once winds turn northerly. Ratio's go up considerably as the colder air moves in. It will be interesting to see if the euro stays with the southern solution this afternoon.

Just looked at the overnight model runs. Looks like they held. Euro seems to be on its own with the position further south, although the low it is elongated to the north. Doesn't make a lot of difference in terms of sensible weather though. Everything should be sampled today so we'll see what/if any major changes take place. An earlier phase would be ideal for this area.

Looking forward to tomorrow’s model runs. Hopefully there will be some resolution at that point. Despite differences in the low track seems like we are in line for a nice storm. Some better than other obviously. Interesting that the euro is the most southern solution at this point. We’ll see who caves tomorrow.

Good read and analysis on the storm and potential outcomes - http://www.stormhamster.com/entry2/e011619b.htm I would definitely give it until tomorrow before leaning in any one direction.

Good to hear. Per ORH in the NE sub, a SE trend is typical in this time frame until 48 hours out when the "latent heat release" causes a shift back to the NW.

Really hard to go against the euro given its reliability. Feel much better having the euro showing a favorable solution given this time frame it is in its wheelhouse. Again, come Thursday we'll have a much better picture so I'm not overly concerned about 40 mile GFS north/south bumps every 6 hour cycle.

Everything is still on track. Any small changes in track are noise at this point... and most important to those riding the edge. Not saying things couldn't change but continuity is really good right now.

Yep. Another good day of model runs. Details are still TBD but its fair to say that we have some buffer to the south and north at this point, with good model consensus. Can't ask for more than that 4 days out. We'll have a pretty clear picture come Thursday. Unless something dramatically changes no need to sweat each model run.

Thanks for dropping in with your thoughts. Yeah, too amped and the mix line would get close. Feeling pretty good about it at this point but its still a long ways out.

Thanks for the info. Makes sense.

Thanks for the post. Great to have a met in the area. Going to be a long week of model watching. Would the weaker clipper allow for more amplification of the weekend storm?

Yep. All snow.

Another incredible Euro run last night. Pretty remarkable agreement in the models at this point.

It has been quite some time since there has been a signal like this for a significant storm in this area. We have some room on the north and south side as is stands right now. Being 5 or so days out its nice to have the Euro looking good. There would definitely be lake enhancement on the backside as winds come around from the Northeast to the North... especially with ample moisture and cold 850 temps. Pretty much the ideal set-up for Northern Ohio. The Thursday system would be a nice appetizer leading up to the weekend as well. The only concern I have at this point is this becoming more suppressed but we have some wiggle room. Going to be a long week of model watching but the consistency is great to see.

Woke up for an early morning flight and was surprised how much snow fell. Wasn't expecting more than a dusting. Last nights Euro was great for Ohio.

This might be one of the better clown maps I've seen from the 12z GFS.

Nice storm for next weekend out in fantasy range... a good signal on the models for something tracking through the lower OV. Hope we can cash in on one or two decent synoptic storms this winter.

That band in Cuyahoga must be intense. We've had a few bursts here under lighter returns and it was a whiteout.

Nice upstream connections with bands over the secondary snowbelt and far west side. Didn't pick up much last night... around an inch or so.

Wind shift is pushing south across the lake. We should transition from the banded structure to the "green blob" over the higher terrain. The band earlier was very intense. We'll see what tonight brings.