That's the crazy part... the least likely place you would expect a band to set-up given the solid ice cover out that way. Hopefully we can develop an upstream connection out this way.
It has been snowing most of the morning in Chagrin but not adding up too much given the small flake size. You can see a lot of open water on the visible satellite. Things should pick-up as the moisture from lake huron swings back west.
Measured 2.7" overnight. Wasn't expecting quite that much. Yeah, this area is in the bullseye on the WRF. You can already snow developing out west on the upstream connections. Hopefully there is some open water to work with.
Wow... just looked at 12z and the WRF is juicy on the east side. I remain a bit skeptical but as OHweather the ice is thin and likely moves around easily. With the expected strong winds a good amount of water could open up.
The high res models continue to show a good amount of precip from Cuyahoga on east. Might be overdone given the ice cover but things look pretty good for a few inches. CLE's snowfall map has 6-8 in this area with 8-12 in northern geauga.
I think we will be a little too far west for lake huron moisture but I could be wrong. I'd bet we see the bands form along the edge of the ice. The strong winds have pushed the ice around quite a bit as it is still thin so there will be some moisture/heat flux. Nice view of the ice today.
Thanks for the forecast and happy new year! Be safe out there. I’ll be sleeping by 11. This would be an ideal set up Cleveland without ice cover. Just what we have to deal with given the shallow lake.
290 is as good as it gets for our area... maximizes the fetch all the way to Michigan. Really a bummer that we are a few days late with getting an ideal flow. The ice will definitely hurt heat/moisture flux but it’s not solid from Lorain on east. Only problem is that 290 brings the winds directly across the ice covered areas.
Nice view of the ice on satellite today. From Lorain west there is ice cover, but not solid. The western basin seems to be closed off at this point. Hoping winds stay up tonight to keep the water moving around. A calm night would build a lot of ice.
Measured just over 7" this morning. Not your typical fluff despite the cold temps. Another chance of snow near the lakeshore tomorrow. Looks like winds are primarily from the wnw on the models unless I'm wrong. Just looked at the wrf and I don't see a wsw flow.
It's a winter wonderland out there. Sitting right under the Lake Huron band. Haven't been out to measure but it sure looks like double digits. Huge flake size within the band.
The band was impressive as it moved through. Surprised it moved south so quickly. Figured there would be more convergence with the sw winds over land. Good to see the radar starting to fill in over the lake though.
Great pics. We've had two straight seasons where the lakeshore areas have been favored. The next two days look snowy with a potential lake Huron connection. Let's just hope we are not left wondering what could have been if use lake was a just a few degrees warmer. I'm cautiously optimistic for a big event... But how much the ice effects things is the big caveat.
Thanks for the forecast ohweather. Looks like a spread the wealth event. I was downtown yesterday afternoon. There was open water but lots of ice starting to form along the shoreline. Hopefully there is enough juice for this event.
Had around 2" of new snow last night. Slowly but surely scraping our way to a decent snowpack. Looks like another fairly significant LES event coming up for areas favored by a west flow - what's new! Pretty amazing that we've haven't had one significant WNW flow LES event this year. The ice is rapidly expanding so time is running out.
There's a nice band forming now. Not sure if it is convergence related to the WSW winds over land and the WNW winds over the lake. Hopefully the band doesn't swing too far to the northeast though.
Ha! We are used to disappointment. Looks like winds are turning more WSW'erly over the lake as the bands are starting to move to the NE up the shoreline. Maybe it's temporary but I had thought winds were going to come around more NW'erly as the day went on. Fetch is being maximized and it appears a more intense single band may form. We'll see what the afternoon brings if that can get organized.
Yeah, that's a tough one to take. LES is so localized. Hopefully we can all share in a decent WNW wind event prior to the lake freezing. Time is running out though.
A very fine snow coming down. Maybe an inch so far. Temps are just too cold. Anyway, nice to see the snow falling. Erie PA is at 100" of snow for the season, while CLE is just short of 12". What an amazing gradient.