Just read BUF's disco re: LES later this week. They sound awfully optimistic. We don't have the long fetch or elevation of WNY, but I'd imagine the conditions would be similar in our area with lesser totals of course.
The airmass is not overly cold by late January standards, with 850mb temps starting at around
-8C Thursday night and dropping to around -12C over the weekend. Temperatures are fairly cold
at 700mb however, and this combined with deep moisture will allow lake induced equilibrium levels
to rise to near 10K feet. The favorable instability and longevity of the setup suggest significant
accumulations are possible east of the lakes. A comparison of the surface and upper level patterns
to our locally developed lake effect analogs show a good match to significant events for the
Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill/Oswego County. CIPS analogs also support the idea of a significant
event. 3-4 day storm totals may very well reach several feet east of both Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario from late week into the weekend.